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Member since: Dec 07

In the spirit of full disclosure

Well, I've decided I'm going to open myself up a little bit more to the community in regards to my portfolio. Currently, it consists of a single holding. Bet you can't guess what it is ;)

My current position in SBUX is 735 shares. My aim is to accumulate 1000 shares (will keep buying on dips).  By that time, I'm guessing my total cost will be somewhere around $20,000. I can already hear the whispers..... "he needs to diversify".... "what a moron - putting all his eggs in once basket like that"..... "is he *@*! &^ nuts!" All which are probably true. I've said the same to myself plenty of times. Regardless, I'm sticking with my plan.

Every time in the past I got impatient and second guessed myself, it hurt me more acting on those feelings versus just staying put. I believe my investment in Starbucks will pay off in time (a year or two). If not, I'll just dust myself off and move on. I didn't go into this without first acknowledging I could lose most or all of my investment. Not too likely, but nothing is impossible. If that were to happen, as painful as it would be, I would be ok. As of this morning, I have an unrealized loss of $3618.24 (down 21.85%). To date, I still sleep very well at night. Part of the reason for this is that I'm  measuring my success in years rather than weeks or months.

A question I ask myself all the time is: "When will be the right time to sell"?  Whether it's at a loss or a profit.  I just don't have an answer at this point.  Who knows, maybe I'll never sell it.

Once I reach 1000 shares in SBUX (probably sometime mid-year), I'll begin to build a new position in a different company. In coming months, I'm going to work on putting together a short list of companies I want to own. Market conditions (short and long term) will dictate which of these companies I choose to build my next position in. I may decide to build a position in two companies at the same time. We'll see when the time comes. I want to focus on building my positions one company at a time (at least $20,000 in each position), each in a different sector/industry. I don't envision ever having more than four or five positions in my portfolio at once.

For what it's worth, I just turned on my "Show share/contract amount of my trades" along with "Share my TradeKing account holdings" and "Share my TradeKing Position Sizes".

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Posted by UPod on 03/04/08 at 04:22 AM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: Starbucks, SBUX

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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -0.75%
15 Day 9.56%
1 Month 2.83%
3 Month 13.38%
6 Month 41.45%
1 Year 104.53%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 101
Trade Notes 21
Blog Posts 83
Programmer / Analyst
Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
UPod
I just want to comment that what's stated above is my long term roadmap.   I'm sure I'll make  speculative plays here and there.  That's where options will come into play.
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DannyUpshaw

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English Instructor
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DannyUpshaw
Dude, today's the day to snap up those SBUX shares and average down.  Almost tied the 1 year low a few minutes ago.
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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -0.75%
15 Day 9.56%
1 Month 2.83%
3 Month 13.38%
6 Month 41.45%
1 Year 104.53%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
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Programmer / Analyst
Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
UPod

I know.  I now regret only buying 15 shares when it hit 17.65.   At that point,  the Down was down over 200.    It's now making a very strong comeback.   I have enough cash left in my account to purchase about another 50 shares.   Then I have to wait till Friday, which is when I make my next ACH deposit, before I can do anything else. 

Rather than buy 100 share chucks at a time like I usually do,  my plan was to buy small amounts more frequently over the month of March (because of the zero commisssion) - just to smooth out the average cost a little bit more.

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DannyUpshaw

Member since: May 07

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DannyUpshaw
I averaged down some on a few stocks of my own today.  I also stopped short of buying my regular amount of shares.  I was doing small 10-30 share trades today.  I wanted to have some money left over to buy more if the market dipped even further.  The market really got scary today. 
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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

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1 Year 104.53%
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Programmer / Analyst
Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
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I normally check the futures on Bloomberg first thing when I wake up in the morning.   When I saw the DOW futures were down around 90 points this morning.   I had a feeling it was going to be an interesting day.   I noticed you added to your positions in CRNT, TCHC.

I also see you started a new position in Logitech ( LOGI ).   Looking at their 3 month chart,  it looks like they're down a little of 30% since mid December.  They've also closed lower in the last four trading sessions.  Are you looking for a bounce?

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snowman

Member since: Mar 07

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Construction Union
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snowman
I admire your integrity and patience UPod and I hope it works for you. Just bought a mouse from LOGI. I will be going long after another 12% drop in the market. But like they say you never know.
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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

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1 Year 104.53%
As of: 11/20/09
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Thanks for nice comment Snowman.
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Jim Bradley

Member since: Feb 07

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Jim Bradley

Hi,

I have the same problem with results.   But Ihaven't given up yet.

I don't have the guts to concentrate in one position as you are doing.   But that is the best way to make alot of money, or loose alot.  Good Luck.

JB

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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -0.75%
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1 Year 104.53%
As of: 11/20/09
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Trades 101
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Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
UPod

Thanks Jim. 

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locogmac

Member since: Sep 06

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Student
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Washington UNITED STATES
locogmac
A lot of confidence in our local company :P Starbucks here is as busy as ever, so at least the customer base isn't going away. I don't know much about coffee beans and prices and what not, but good luck! Seems like its the popular thing to do lately to open up your portfolio. I may think about doing it, although theres really no reason TO do it, nor any reason to not do it. I think. :P
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microcaps

Member since: Aug 06

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Richmond, VA UNITED STATES
microcaps

Upod, I think your strategy is fine. Though diversification of 3-4 stocks might reduce your company specific risk significantly, as Buffett said, diversification is a protection against ignorance.

I think Starbucks is a good company wit a wide moat. and they will continue to grow globally.  They might see some slow down in the next 2 years within the US (from the fact that many folks ere will think twice before paying $4-$5 for a cup of latte due to the recession/stagflation that we are having now). hence you are able to pick up cheap shares now..

Yes, once you have 1000 shares of SBUX go ahead and build another position. 2 or 3 of them at the same time if you can find 2 or 3 other stocks that you want to own and happen to be at a right price (or you can alternate which one to add each month).

About when to sell, if you can, don't sell (not one years, two years, three years), as long as the fundamental is good and growth is still there (and reasonable PE and PEG), then hold.  Once the company gets PE too high (like APPL when it is at 200 or CMG wen it is at 150+ or bidu at $400+) and you expect it to drop 40-50% then you can reduce or sell all and maybe buy back when it dropped or moved on to other stock. obviously we can't be right guessing on the stock price all the time.. but if we can be right 60-70% of the time, then we will be fine (and it's easier to ppredict long term than short term IMO)

All the best and keep us posted on your progress!

Sidarta

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UPod

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -0.75%
15 Day 9.56%
1 Month 2.83%
3 Month 13.38%
6 Month 41.45%
1 Year 104.53%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 101
Trade Notes 21
Blog Posts 83
Programmer / Analyst
Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
UPod
Thanks for the feedback locogmac.    Sidarta - thanks for the great insight and advice.  I appreciate it.  I'll make sure to post regarding my progress.