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Presidential Elections / Stock Market Cycles

posted 09/04/08 06:45 PM | Viewed 161 times

A very good paper by Marshall D. Nickles, EdD

http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html
 

A very worthwhile read.  Please check it out if you have a moment.  It's not overly long.    Based on history, don't look for another bull market for another couple years,  but then again, quoting the democratic nominees "This Is No Ordinary Time, This is No Ordinary Election".

Check out Table/Chart 3 ( Based on S&P 500).   Which compares:

"Percent Change from Oct 1 of 2nd yr of Presidential term through Dec. 31 of election yr. (Investor 1 strategy)   versus

Percent Change from Jan. 1 of inaugural yr through Sept. 30 of second yr of presidential term (Investor 2 strategy) 

Those results are absolutely amazing.

 

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Haymore

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Haymore
Posted September 05, 2008 (10:24AM)
Seems safe to say that years 2005 - 2008 will have a bottom in the 4th year.
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locogmac

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locogmac
Posted September 05, 2008 (06:42PM)
Thanks for sharing this, may look more into this....
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