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TradeKing Staff Member

Member since: Feb 06

Gurus who swing for the fences often strike out

If you believe in the "wisdom of the crowd" and the ability of individual stockpickers within a community to outperform the so-called experts, you'll want to check out the latest research from CXO Advisory Group, which looked at whether the favorite equity investments of stock market newsletter gurus reliably outperform the market. After analyzing the performance of the 70 favorite investments of stock market newsletter gurus, the answer, it appears, is no.

In fact, the average return of all 70 guru favorites was 0.8% with a very large 46% standard deviation of returns. Moreover, the favorites tended to underperform broad benchmarks such as the S&P 500 over selected time horizons. What's more, 20% of the stock picks ended up under $10, and six ended up under $5, perhaps hinting that the stock picks were speculative in nature: "It seems that, when presenting their favorite investments, participating guru may often be swinging for the fences with high-risk picks that on average underperform the market at an investment horizon." 

The bottom line, according to CXO Advisory Group: "Investors should beware of the favorite equity investments of stock market newsletter gurus. Many favorites may be swing-for-the-fences speculations."

NOTE: Please keep in mind that TradeKing does not specifically endorse any of the securities or trading strategies mentioned. Depending on your risk-reward profile, this trade may or may not be suitable for your portfolio. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only.

[image: Swinging Strikeout via Wikimedia] 

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Posted by tradeking on 05/15/08 at 11:26 PM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: stock, investment, guru, speculation

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Millionaire Apprentice

Member since: Mar 08

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Yeah, by the time you've received the newsletter, the stock's already had it's day, if there even was one to be had.  Those letters seem to come from the pump & dump guys,  concerning low-volume, speculative, "the next big 'whatever' " stock, usually penny stocks.  You buy, watch the price drop, and get left holding the 'empty' bag.
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Daisy

Member since: May 08

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Right. Electronic letters I mark as a spam, mail letters I throw into the trash without opening. Personal experience - two people are good with their stock picks - Robert Hsu, former Goldman Sachs fund manager, who became a millioner before he turned 30 and left the company to build his own, very successful business; and Steven Smith (TheStreet.com) with choosing stocks for trading options - most of the time very high probability predictions.