Keep in mind, though, that many of these "top" fund managers have out-performed their peers largely on the strength of their long-term performance, not on any particular skill over the past 12 months: "Most are in the red on a 12-month and year-to-date basis, although the majority continue to outpace the broad market, which was off about 13% in 2008 through the end of June." Still, their stock picks offer some insights into which sectors and industries are expected to outperform the market over the final months of 2008.

NOTE: Please keep in mind that TradeKing does not specifically endorse any of the securities or trading strategies mentioned. Depending on your risk-reward profile, this trade may or may not be suitable for your portfolio. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only.

[image: Barron's]

The reason why The top fund managers are a little in the red, in my opinion, is like any human,were denying the finiancial numbers they were seeing and not recognizing the the hidden finicial numbers. that leads to discussion. Like anyone, if they talk, they must believe, what they are saying.

Second, after all, most are like a squirrell searching for a nut, when one play does or does not work, the person investing remembers all the events surronding the time from beginning to end of the play. Later down the road, the same investor recognizes events unfolding that are similiar, but NOT THE SAME, as last time they made the decision to invest in the same investment vehicle. This can lead to better gains or just more lost investment dollars.

The reason that it is not the same, at least for the individual, is the time factor: the day of week, week in the month and time of season. Plus individuals, hopefully, are more intelligent with the passage of time, even with top investors miss the que's on one of the positions.

Just like squirrels, I continue to watch them, dig and search for food, then run up the tree to their storage unit, only to come down seconds later to search again for more. Even though, I know what the squirrels a preparing for, I am like a squirrell also, coming back to watch them do what they do repeatedly.

Over time, any human, will rachet down or up the expectation of profit or loss from an investment vehicle. If events begin to unfold quickly as the subprime and commodities did and still is (Don't forget that) then one will either still have an underestimate or overestimate opinion of the overall quantity of stored nuts in the tree. Leaving us to wonder, will the squirrel come back down for more or is there enough food to tide the squirrell over winter?

I can honestly say, I don't have enough, but then again who ever does, when they live day by day.

I like the Q play and I can write about this in general because I either own stock or have owned stock in the companies listed in the Barron's Article.

PEACE

Great point about investor psychology. According to investment textbooks, investors are rational thinkers who optimize their portfolios. The reality, as you point out, is often quite different.

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