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My #1 Oil Indicator Looks Like a Buy

Jeff Clark spies a diamond-buy in the midst of this selling rubble.

We are approaching what I believe may be the best oil-stock buying opportunity of the year.

I know that sounds ridiculous. After all, the American Stock Exchange Oil Index is down 15% on the year. And Big Oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips are down 15% as well.

The price of oil, though, is 50% higher today than it was when it started 2009. So, what is the problem with related oil stocks?

Frankly, I don't know.

I wish I could tell you the oil stocks outperformed crude oil late last year and the sector rallied ahead of the commodity. But it didn't. Oil stocks bottomed with the overall stock market back in March.

Since then, the gains have been modest at best. At worst, they've vastly underperformed the remarkable rally in the price of crude oil itself. But I believe that's about to change. My No. 1 oil stock indicator could be about to turn bullish. Take a look...

The Bullish Percent Index measures overbought and oversold conditions. The index ranges from 1 to 100. Any reading below 10 indicates the sector is oversold and investors should prepare for a rally. A reading above 70 indicates the sector is overbought and may be ready to decline.

You can see how this chart matches up against the performance of the AMEX Oil Stock Index...

The blue circles indicate Bullish Percent Index buy signals. Each one preceded a rally of more than 20%.

Recently, oil stocks peaked in early June and have been trending lower ever since. But they look to me to be rapidly approaching the oversold level.

As soon as the Bullish Percent Index drops below 10, traders may want to consider being ready to buy the oil stocks. It may be the best opportunity to profit off the sector this year.

Best regards and good trading,
Jeff Clark
Growth Stock Wire

Editor's note: Veteran trader Jeff Clark is author of Growth Stock Wire, a daily read providing investors with a pre-market briefing on opportunities in the global stock, currency, and commodity markets. Click here for more information… and a free report on the best ways to trade options.

Read Jeff's previous posts: Here’s What a Sell Looks Like. and Never chase a rally!

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.

Supporting documentation for any claims made in this post will be supplied upon request. Send a private message to All-Stars using the link below the profile image.

Any strategies discussed and examples using actual securities and price data are for educational and illustrative purposes only and do not imply a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a particular security or to engage in any particular investment strategy. In reading content in the Community, you may gain ideas about when, where, and how to invest your money. Although you may discover new ideas or rationale that may be compelling, you must ultimately decide whether or not to put your own money at risk. Consider the following when making an investment decision: your financial and tax situation, your risk profile, and transaction costs.

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Posted by TK All-star on 07/01/09 at 10:10 AM

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Member since: Jan 08

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http://trading-to-win.com/, CT
DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com
sell
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S90911

Member since: May 08

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com said: sell

 ?? Sell what ?
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Member since: Jan 08

Trades 0
Trade Notes 0
Blog Posts 66
Full time trader
Age: 40's
http://trading-to-win.com/, CT
DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com
S90911

"Sell what"? Pardon me, I thought that if blog subject was "soon to be bullish on oil services" - my current "SELL" rating on such needed no clarification :)