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Buy Countrwide, Get BAC at 20% off.

I'm lucky enough to be an investor that has profitted (albeit slightly), not gotten crushed, by Countrywide Financial (CFC). 

 After buying some around $10 when things began to get ugly (thinking that was near a bottom), I stocked up at $4.99 a few weeks ago, after the deal with Bank of America (BAC) had been announced.

 Now, CFC is trading above $7 (though it gave up some significant ground today).  However, there's still an excellent abritrage opportunity available for any investor willing to endure a little risk.  As of yesterday's close, when BAC was at $44.03, Countrywide shares were essentially priced to be bought out at $8.02.  That's still over 10% more than CFC's closing price of $7.22.

 There's many things to love about this situation.  First, as financial conditions are (seeming to be) improving, CFC and BAC shares continue to move upward.  Since the terms of the deal are floating (.1822 shares of BAC for one share of CFC), if BAC keeps going up, so does the buyout price.  Also, there has been some recent news that big investors (specifically, one large hedge fund) may push for an even better price.  Though that may result in short-term uncertaintly and price fluctuation, it may mean a higher ratio when the buyout does occur.  And I say when, not if (that does NOT constitute any absolute guarantee from me) because BAC seems very intent on closing this deal.  Not only do they already have a huge interest in CFC, but they have also released numerous statements already about the structure of the new entity.  

As long as you can tolerate a little risk and fluctuation, I'm still liking Countrywide at this point.  Considering the grim predictions for 2008 from many specialists, a 10% return in the next 6-9 months (the deal is expected to close sometime in the latter half of this year) sounds great to me.   

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Posted by StudentStocks.Blogspot.com on 02/04/08 at 05:13 PM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: countrywide, cfc, bac, subprime, arbitrage

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Haymore

Member since: Jan 08

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Semi-retired business owner
Age: 60's
Arizona
Haymore
The reward - 10% maybe a little more (17 to 20% on an annual basis) for Countrywide against the downside of almost nothing if Countrywide gets hammered with fraud charges by regulators or private lawyers just does not make sense to me.