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Too late for Oil stocks?

Due to the incredible runup in oil service providers and almost every company that has some involvement with drilling or exploring oil, I'm wondering if it is too late to establish a position now? Many of these stocks are trading at their all-time highs and their valuations are also at historic highs.

 Most of these stocks seem to move in parallel with the price of crude oil and my belief is that the price of oil will trade down about 15-20% from it's present levels and then begin a long climb well past today's levels. So, am I better off waiting for this dip or do you think that oil service providers are a good buy right now? If not, what energy positions would you recommend, if any?

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Posted by S90911 on 06/18/08 at 08:05 AM

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locogmac

Member since: Sep 06

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locogmac

Perhaps start building a position slowly? And exponentially build on it as you believe the dip has come and ready to go up again?

 

I have a question though- is there any ETFs or stocks that track gas prices in the US pretty well? Is USO one? Since it tracks crude oil and crude oil up for the most part equals gas prices up? I'm pretty sure that higher gas prices is another thing we are all sure of right now besides death and taxes. 

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S90911

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S90911
Thanks for your reply. USO is the closest ETF that I know of to tracking gasoline prices.
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JCullen

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Loco,
UGA is the ticker for an ETF that invests in front-month futures on gasoline. That sounds more what you're looking for. Crude and gas don't directly track because of a number of factors, including the variability of the crack spread, though the general ratio is a $1/barrel change in oil translates to a 2.5 cent change in gasoline.

S9,
Ironic you ask this, because it's something that was asked of me a few days ago. I've done a pair of writeups on the subject since, and the data suggests that the oil majors (i.e. COP, CVX, XOM et al.) are the cheapest they've been relative to crude since several years ago, at least. Further, the majors have been picking up some momentum relative to the oil service co's, which I believe is a function of the values of the assets on their books being undervalued by the market. In a sense, the oil services compete against oil co's being able to buy back their own stock, and right now the equation is tilted in favor of buybacks, which is where I anticipate more capital flowing.

For more:
http://www.tradeingroups.com/play-oil-directly-with-ep-majors/
http://collegeanalysts.com/2008/06/18/oil-majors-divergence-from-crude-at-record/

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locogmac

Member since: Sep 06

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Jcullen, that's exactly what I was looking for... fairly new though, but I'll look further into this one, thanks!
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