Market? <!-- @page { size: 8.5in 11in; margin: 0.79in } P { margin-bottom: 0.08in } -->

The jobs report on Friday has generated many headlines. The announced unemployment rate beats analyst expectations by a wide margin. Trading was closed on Friday, so Monday will mark the first opportunity for the market to react.

There is no question in my mind that the market will make a big move on Monday, but it is not clear in what direction -- a nice opportunity for a straddle?

On one hand, this is good news for the economy, because it reduces chances of a recession and it backs up the the 'œsoft landing' crowd with low with slow but sustained GDP growth. On the other hand, it significantly reduces chances of the Fed cutting rates anytime soon because of inflation fears, and from what I heard and read, plenty of bullish speculation went into the market on this expectation, so it may be a case of buying on the rumor and selling on the news: big sell-off on Monday!

Why am I concerned? well, right now I have two bearish spread positions on QQQQ and DJX, and a bullish one on NYX. I think NYX should be fine, I'm not too concerned about this one (I think it's a winner either way), but I'm concerned about an upward market hoopla on the jobs report on Monday, thus triggering my DJX stop-loss orders and crushing my DJX options. Fortunately, my QQQQ still has room to swing up to 45.

One bad indicator (for me) is that the futures market went up, which may be indicative of the bull tide overcoming the bears. One good indicator is that last week went up a lot and technically it's time to 'œcorrect'.