This was a suggested trade from IVolatility.Com's IVolatility Trading Digest. It's free and it gives you a few ideas each week on trades that profit primarily because of changes in volatility. As Nicole Wachs pointed out the other day, I have a lot to learn about working with volatility changes, instead of against them.
I like this stock, so I am comfortable with selling this Put. My profit is capped at $115/contract, with my stop order, my loss is limited to about $100/contract. If I'm exercised, my breakeven point on the stock is about 8.80 (it closed at 9.45). The current volatility is high. If it drops, that will benefit me.
The stock has 83% chance to touch 10, and a 53% of finishing above the breakeven point.
<from the newletter...>
AOB peaked above 14 with the October market high and then pulled back below 9. It is now back above 10 and appears to be making a bottom. With a Historical Volatility of 41.91, take a look at this put sale.
* Sell AOB Mar 10 put AOBOB .975 IV 74.10 Delta .4126
With a nice positive volatility spread there is a chance the stock will again trade lower and retest the 9 area. In this event be prepared to take in the stock and then write calls against the long stock position. Remember to size you position accordingly. If you would not be comfortable long this stock then do not make the trade or limit the size to a number where you would be comfortable. We further suggest a stop/unwind be set at the 8 level.




