I was considering putting an unnecessary bearishness blog today due to Randall Stephenson's commentary on AT&T's residential landline woes. Then I realized that there are some questions I have as to the actual numbers.

1. How much is an "uptick" in non-paid disconnects? I'm confused by that... I'd like to see the subscriber numbers...  and how many are actually non-paid disconnects.

2. How many of these customers are still wireless customers? I know a lot of people who are giving up their landlines in favor of wireless phones and have already. Personally, I only have an AT&T wireless phone... if I was on my own, I might not have a landline. It's no longer a need to have a landline these days. Especially since there's no directory that has cell phones on it so far. There's a war about that, but that's for another time.

3. What about wireless churn? Churn is the term used for those who don't renew contracts with the company... and especially with pre-paid, those who no longer pay for service for their phones with the company. Wireless is a more lucrative business in the US. Granted, it's more in the pay-per-month subscrptions...

4. Any news from VZ (especially) or Q? 

T has a lot of the areas that are in the foreclosure capitals... California, Ohio, Nevada, and Michigan as I remember. Q's area is much more rural, though they do have Phoenix, Denver, Seattle, and Minneapolis in general as the incumbent. They do have a cell phone service, but it's a rebranding of Sprint services. As you can see, VZ has the northeast, which is traditionally the stronger area, and where the recessions would hit the worst if there is one. I would like to see the comparison between T and VZ's numbers, especially with wireless churn.

5. OK, broadband is falling... but are people just downgrading to dial-up? What about cable broadband numbers? Juno's numbers (and similar DSL/dial-up services that don't need a phone company to get online) ? Just some thoughts...

6. Finally... what about the other products? T does offer business phone, video, and other products. How good or bad or they? 

This is an incomplete puzzle, IMHO... and a classic overreaction by the market to something that isn't exactly clear... and not necessarily a sign of pending doom, especially considering where T's region is. I want some more info before I'm convinced. We all knew heading in that wireline phones are on the decline (at least those of us who follow the phone companies closely).

More as it comes...

(I found the picture here) 

Moose,

I'm one of the Upticks.    Just moved my long distance from T to VZ as part of a triple play bundle.  Even though I received a $35 monthly discount from T as a retiree benefit, the VZ package is cheaper.  So I have DSL and landline phone from VZ and bundled sat TV from DirecTV.

On wireless, yes many folks use the cell phone as their main phone nowadays.   My Wife and one daughter are in that camp.

ATT is one of the largest data and voice providers in the business world in the US.   They were the leader in Frame Relay service, and then had a big push into IP services.    The IP services were leveraged to do the Apple iPhone deal, and are important in wireless data services.    The data services in ATT are very aggressive in going after new business.

I used to work in ATT Data Services area in Holmdel, NJ.    Since 1998, I have been doing other stuff.   Now running my own hedge fund.

Let me know if you have any other questions on T.