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Cramer says this is the bottom, my portfolio says otherwise.

Cramer was pretty bold today in outright calling the bottom in the market. I'm sure the Cramer Bandwagoners are going to hop on the wagon tomorrow and buy up stocks. Most of you are probably familiar with the term capitulation. If you don't know, capitulation is basically when investors finally give up on the losers they've been holding and sell at any cost (panic selling). What's left after all the holders have sold? Buyers. Buyers will eat up the shares and then thats where the reversal happens, or so they say.

So about my portfolio. I've been holding some huge losers for a while. LDK is down over 75% since its highs at the end of last year. Either I'm a sucker and stubborn, or I'm still not panic-ing, yet. I guess when I finally get in that panic mode where I feel I need to liquidate, I guess thats when I should be buying. I'm sure theres a lot more of you guys out there that are still holding on to losers.

Although capitulation is hard to pin-point and identify, I think we still have quite a crisis to go through before we hit bottom.

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Posted by locogmac on 03/18/08 at 07:44 PM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: capitulation, bottom, LDK, panic selling

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WallStreetKing

Member since: Mar 07

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I beat you, I have one at 98.75% loss and went to pink. have a couple of others. but they were small plays on a gee wiz, I wonder. now i know. but the thing is I haven't lost yet. but to get back to the 0% is a long way away.

That is when that attitude of all or nothing comes in on specutlative trade. small amount of capital and can make it up in 2 days or less of work.

on the other hand, just staying away from the ones i do speculate, guess, sound good to me investing would porbably be better, at least thats what my wife says. She has the JCI and the dividend stocks, I get all the losers according to her rules.!!! I will never retire with her attitude.

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locogmac

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Yeah, well now looking back on my post, and then seeing a bunch of others... despite how much we all love to save we ignore Cramer, it seems like we do spend a lot of time listening to his crap. :D

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WallStreetKing

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I do not invest on cramers picks, in fact i stopped watching him altogeather I found early on his picks lost and his % was really low (not that mine is any better) but for the amounts he invest and as often he should be racking in above 25%.

Those that i lost on are my own picks, my idea my everything and i only can blame myself and recieve the stupid award. but this is a side thing and a new hobby that my wife and i do. peace

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wavefreak58

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I listened to Cramer's show one time. My dislike for him was immediate. I realize that liking somebody isn't necessary for their financial views to be accurate. But I couldn't escape the feeling that he was selling snake oil.

Just my opinion. He may be a very personable fellow when he's not on the air. 

 

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Gordon Gekko

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Gordon Gekko

Wow 75% and 98.75% losses. Too painful for me, why not set stop losses or buy puts and protect your positions?

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WallStreetKing

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Not ready for option trading. I want to fully understand before an option trade. the losses that I posted 75% 98.75% are small $100 or $200 plays and are long term, because I liked the companies. a Sentimental thing.

my view point is, If one of my securietis (small investment) go out broke or whatever, then that can be hedged against any gains that I have for dividends or gains on realized Sells, through out the year. This year, My Tax liability worked out well and was reduced or offset by a couple of losses. Not that I invest to lose, but sometimes it helps when gains take a little longer to perculate in the current market.

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Doji

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Wasn't it last week that Cramer said Bear Stearns was totally solvent?  You had no worries with Bear Stearns!!!  So, don't worry that the market will go lower, either!!!
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locogmac

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Personally, under normal circumstances, I don't believe in stop losses. To me, stop losses are admitting to yourself that the trade you are about to make is a losing one. Again, in normal circumstances. I may consider using stop loss when there may be a huge announcement upcoming, or some other thing that my trigger a huge fallout. But, under day-to-day prices, I would never use a stop loss, especially with the volatility that the stocks I hold go through.
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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"Stop loss order - sell LDK if loss is > 99%"

I am just not in a good mood today - whatever could be done wrong today I've done it 

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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Locogmac - do you want to be RIGHT or do you want to MAKE MONEY?
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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I am on a "roll" woof...wooof...wooooof

I lost a bundle today ( nothing I can live without )

But IF I did not have at least "mental stops" in place ( I hate "hard stops" - they can be easily taken out or just pop on a bad tick data ), so if I did not follow my stops - I would have lost 4X - I think the choice is clear ( at least for me after been trading for about 18 years ) 

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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I just cannot shut up today!

1. LDK  posted buy signal on weekly chart ( if nothing big happen tom. ) Most likely will go up with oil.

2. Cramer needs to be left alone - he is special ( not to say retarded - so only retards listen to his insane mumbo-jumbo - therefore those who listen to him deserve to loose money )

3 This is as far away from "the bottom" as it gets - all these market "rallies" where artificially created. It was/is "tradable" bounce - as for bull market - we need to wait for quite a while now - help us God not to follow Japan on its 20 years bleak path

 

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locogmac

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I want to be right and make money. Of course, the latter should always be first. My convictions with LDK are strong though. I have a lot of reasons that are going for it and staying long, my only reason against it is because currently it is being manipulated by wall street analysts. The thing is, I am NOT a day trader, although recently my trades have become more frequeny. If I was day trading, most definitely I would consider stop losses. But for long term, stop losses will only be taken out on short term swings and I will be left with a loss, and no position.
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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So, Wall Street Anal-sts who none care about were able to convince 500,000,000 traders that LDK is not good ( at least for now ) - and you know better than all of them? Are you trying to prove that you can take 18wheeler head on on a 5 speed bike? OOOKKKK then.....

I personally happen to know a lot of people who still believe that stocks which lost 99.999999999% in value from 2000 are been unfairly manipulated. It is NEVER different, now they say "gold,oil,wheet....." - it will collapse ALL THE SAME and all corresponding "mania" stocks alongside.... ( Note - I never said LDK is  a "bad" company - I don't care to tell you the truth - I don't think everyone can find next DELL - chances are just like in the lootery )

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locogmac

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While I may not always believe I know better than them, what I do know is that they do not always know better than us. Analysts, like everyone else on wallstreet, is out to make money. They don't care about anyone else but themselves. Even if you did claim that you know the truth, again, I wouldn't trust you either and only take for a grain of salt. I could go ahead and respond with a slew of facts and comments from my research in LDK, and in the same way, you would, and probably should only take it with a grain of salt. It works both ways, so I won't bother to do so. :)
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