Figuring out this market is like trying to find the penny under one of these shells.

Photo is the beach where our family (3 branches strong) spent spring break. 

Most of the beach is sand except for this 1/4 kilometer. 

Well Haymore you know I messaged you to go long today last night, you also know every time I do I get burned. Personaly I think we break through the DOW barrier this week into bullish territory. However, as I pointed out in one of my blogs, Margin calls get sent out today. 3days to cover or the broker does it for you. So we may move up from here, but I would say there is a 99% chance we come back down to where we are now at 10:30 in the morning for those broker calls or maybe a little lower. What I am saying is if it goes a lot higher buy some puts. The banks are in enough trouble they do not need more of this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-lRx0Hb4NA

Heymore

While I enjoyed te picture, I would respectfully disagree that "you cannot figure where market is going" - sometimes we can. Below is what I posted on March 28th on this blog ( and mine as well ) - text follow:

=====================================

To be precise - nobody in the mutual funds world want to have too many losers on quarterly report. That is why most beaten down sectors continued to suffer losses today.
I like to take my chances and get some short term plays on a cheap. I was building long position from airline, homebuilders and small cap stocks from the very morning. Somehow - airlines already paid off - nice bounce. I don't think it'll get much "cheaper" on Monday - if market will be down - I'd keep adding to my long positions. Bought some $RUT near the money April calls as well. Cheers.
Have a great and peaceful weekend...

 Now some extra for TradeKing friends - some very interesting AH activities:

DHI

 03/28/08    16:00:00    15.41    15.4    15.41    700
03/28/08    16:01:24    15.36    15.44    15.41    22100
03/28/08    16:02:15    15.36    15.44    15.65    68700
03/28/08    16:02:36    15.36    15.35    15.65    64300
03/28/08    16:02:55    15.36    15.36    15.36    22700
03/28/08    16:10:05    15.45    15.45    15.45    1050
03/28/08    16:10:20    15.45    15.45    15.45    1050
03/28/08    16:10:40    15.45    15.45    15.45    1050
03/28/08    16:10:55    15.45    15.45    15.45    1050
03/28/08    16:20:05    15.44    15.44    15.44    62050
03/28/08    16:20:20    15.44    15.44    15.44    62050
03/28/08    16:20:40    15.44    15.44    15.44    62050
03/28/08    16:20:55    15.44    15.44    15.44    62050
03/28/08    16:25:05    15.36    15.36    15.36    50
03/28/08    16:25:20    15.36    15.36    15.36    50
03/28/08    16:25:40    15.36    15.36    15.36    50
03/28/08    16:25:55    15.36    15.36    15.36    50
03/28/08    16:29:05    15.46    15.46    15.46    2850
03/28/08    16:29:20    15.46    15.46    15.46    2850
03/28/08    16:29:40    15.46    15.46    15.46    2850
03/28/08    16:29:55    15.46    15.46    15.46    2850
03/28/08    16:33:23    15.46    15.32    15.51    18900

DAL

03/28/08    15:59:58    8.61    8.6    8.61    300
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.61    8.6    8.61    200
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.62    8.6    8.61    500
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.61    8.6    8.61    1300
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.62    8.6    8.61    1900
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.61    8.6    8.61    1400
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.61    8.6    8.61    900
03/28/08    16:00:00    8.61    8.6    8.61    1000
03/28/08    16:00:48    8.61    8.5    8.61    34400
03/28/08    16:02:00    8.61    8.46    8.62    100
03/28/08    16:02:21    8.63    8.46    8.63    2000
03/28/08    16:03:25    8.61    8.41    8.61    300
03/28/08    16:06:24    8.61    8.41    8.61    100
03/28/08    16:06:55    8.61    8.61    8.61    75
03/28/08    16:08:05    8.61    8.61    8.61    25
03/28/08    16:08:20    8.61    8.61    8.61    25
03/28/08    16:08:40    8.61    8.61    8.61    25
03/28/08    16:08:55    8.61    8.61    8.61    25
03/28/08    16:17:05    8.61    8.61    8.61    375
03/28/08    16:17:20    8.61    8.61    8.61    375
03/28/08    16:17:40    8.61    8.61    8.61    375
03/28/08    16:17:55    8.61    8.61    8.61    375
03/28/08    16:31:11    8.61    8.61    8.65    123900

Windows "dressing" is over for not such a good quoter - there were no buyers today, but not much sellers except for hedge funds and their best interest is to show that  strategy works. Monday will be the choice of: 1. UP or 2. QUIET ( marking up/down stocks on the last day is highly suspisious - so big guys don't normally do that) Once again - note mediocre volume on a down day and exact retracement to 50% Fibonacci Level.

Next week is 401Ks and such inflows - not much money on sidelines, but still will be few nice up day - sharpen up your longs.

SnowMan - you are Da Man. Right to the point that was you said ( talking Yogurt :))

As A matter of fact according to reports, there are very limited according to historical data  cash positions in Mutual/Pension funds - this "rally" is fueled by "new limited", as you fairly noticed "beat the tax man" money. But here is a kicker - Fidelities of the world KNOW how much money they will get and they loading up even BEFORE money came in. So - this rally will NOT last till 15th - it'll be over long before. 

Snowman and other, since we were speaking volume - enjoy and decide on validity and longevity of today's rally. Does notlook that imprecive when looking through the magnifying glass

 price/volume relations:

DOW:

Stocks up on rising volume 21
Stocks up on declining volume 9

S&P:

Stocks up on rising volume 330
Stocks up on declining volume 157

NASDAQ 100

Stocks up on rising volume 72
Stocks up on declining volume 26

Russell 2k

Stocks up on rising volume 999
Stocks up on declining volume 678

All Stocks

Stocks up on rising volume 3154
Stocks up on declining volume 2061