I leave tomorrow, 6am, for Bangkok via Tokyo. God, I don't know what I'll do if I can't trade. I recently bought SEP $120s of WLT on a limit buy at 6.50 ....I'm really fretting about another position in CHK. I really want in on the JAN $65s, but I might have to settle for $70. That company is going to tear and in retrospect I think that my fussing here about getting in on a dip might seem stupid. But, never want to buy at the top.
I'm also fretting over taking a position in AGU, or perhaps another of the coal names, like MEE. This market went from treading water to downright ugly this week-and it's the goddamn financials to blame again. Sinking this entire show - and that's why I'm sticking to what's working - energy. I know there has been a lot of talk about commodity speculation and a bubble, but in my opinion that's all crap. Let's look at this thing:
First, let's take a look at the S&P GSCI index, look at a long term chart. There is some serious base building that's been going on in that thing for the past few years. This upward outbreak was coming, and in a big way.
Secondly, on the front of energy....demand destruction? You have to be kidding me...increased asian demand will top any loss of deman due to a stagnant US economy. It' also in the interest of all major oil producing countries to strangle supply to keep prices high. It's called natural resource nationalism and they are squeezing the last drop out of their natural assets. Can you blame them? We would do the same....
$100+ oil is here to stay. That makes nat gas much more appealing, and coal. We are the saudi arabia of both natural gas and coal. Domestic energy supply, cheaper, cleaner (coal if used correctly, and nat gas by a long shot). The problem is we've been so lazy on our asses since 1980 driving *#(&$ hummers around, not updating our infrastructure...honestly, our blind eye toward energy consumption and lack of efficiency brought this on. This country got lazy...we have the capability to build natural gas plants with 60% efficiency yet there are hardly any new ones out there. For god's sake, people still use HEATING OIL in new england. Talk about NOT cost effective.
"High" energy prices are here to stay, and if you ask me it's a good thing. It's the only way this country will change its habits, and innovation will accelerate in cleaner and more effiecient energy technology and policy. Until then, I'm long Nat gas (CHK, HK, PVA, GDP, XTO, etc) and coal (WLT, PCX,BTU,MEE) with CHK and WLT being my favorites for various reasons.
This is no bubble. Every Chinese and Indian person wants a car, somewhere someone is turning on a lightbulb for the first time, and that energy demand will only increase with time. More people=more energy consumption.
Enough of my ranting...next time I'll be trading from Bangkok in the middle of the night! Gotta put a trailing stop on WLT IY and get my ass back in CHK AN or AM....
