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RIMM

Expectations are high. High volatility going in here. Time to do some sort of volatility hedge here or perhaps just bet on the upside/downside? Thinking about speculating a small amount here...what do you all think?
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Posted by godspeedj on 04/02/08 at 06:14 AM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: RIMM, volatility, earnings

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DannyUpshaw

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English Instructor
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DannyUpshaw

I would bet against them.  I'd buy a put.  Or an at the money call.  But that's just me. 

Of course, I could be competely wrong. 

I think that AAPL and Palm are eventually going to eat into RIMM's profits. However, I will say that blackberry's are catching on with teens a little.  I've seen a few teens using them on campus.

 

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Haymore

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Haymore

China + RIMM = growth  (at least thats the current theme)

RIMM is over priced but I have been burned twice buying puts . . never again!

For over priced go look at CRM    PE is over 400 

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DannyUpshaw

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DannyUpshaw
Good point Haymore.
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godspeedj

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godspeedj
since this is near expiration as well there is a real premium on both calls and puts (~10%). Not sure this is worth it...
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godspeedj

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godspeedj
not pulling the trigger on this one. Don't like the high expectations and premiums on options right now. could be a great quarter with good guidence but one dissapointing number such as rev could send this stock down.
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Haymore

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Haymore
Check out the April calls 115 through 140.  A lot of somebodies expect something.
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EnglishTeach

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The market is moving widely on little news.  ...has been for the last two months.  Strangle it w/ ATM calls and puts?   I'm expecting a little over (consensus =0.70 or 0.71).   ...so, I'm thinking somewhere around $128? by tomorrow morning. 
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EnglishTeach

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EnglishTeach
Rev of 1.88 billion and 0.72 cents.  Up to 119 so far after hours.
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snowman

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snowman
I thought about how to bet this stock. Puts would be one way. However if you wanted to go long say 2 weeks before earnings. Buy deep in the money puts, and then buy the shares. When it goes up into earnings you actually gain more on the shares than you lose on the puts. Also volatility is guaranteed to increase so you would also get those gains. Then just unload the package before earnings. Some risk involved if it goes down coming into earnings, only it has never happened yet and the risk would very minimal.
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godspeedj

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godspeedj
well because such high volatility was priced into the options any calls I would have bought would have made a small/moderate profit. No regrets here, too much attention, too high expectations, p/e too high for me. strangle should have done reasonably well, how did it go for you english teach?
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J.Jones

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28 mutual funds just bought RIMM, that is $483 million dollars pumped into RIMM. RIMM was just upgraded 2 weeks ago. The price target for RIMM is $190. I think RIMM will beat earnings as always on 6/25/2008.
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