EnglishTeach > Blogs

fertilizers, oil trusts?

Checking some stocks (MOS, MON, POT, SBR, PBT) and trying to figure out what is causing the pullback.  (Have no current holdings).  There is a short article at Market Intelligence Center about meat futures causing a pullback in MOS, but that sounds a little stretched to me (smells rancid?). 

 

The only thing I can figure is an expectation of a stronger dollar coming from a (expected) Fed signal that the rate cuts will end after tomorrow.  So, stronger dollar = short term pullback in commodities and oil???  

 

(trying to figure out how to approach it...  though I'm pretty much sitting still until after tomorrow's GDP and Fed news).   Any thoughts appreciated.

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Posted by EnglishTeach on 04/29/08 at 06:49 AM

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corbinb2

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corbinb2

POT got downgraded yesterday by Goldman Sachs. This is dragging down all other potash related stocks and maybe a few agriculture stragglers.

Other articles since have said it is only temporary and shoud rise back up again.

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Haymore

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Haymore
GS brought out IPI 7 days ago at twice POT's pe & now downgrades  POT - what a rip!
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Krandallstown25

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Haymore

 So what does that do for IPI? Being that i thought/think this stock will be the next (POT) 

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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Here is more logical explanation - JMHO

"Doorman syndrome"

and more

Stock Market Sectors Watch

I think timing is a precise as its gets

 

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snowman

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Everyone is waiting for interest rates to rise before they pull their money out of Commodities and stocks. They have no place to park it except 3 month T-bills. So for now it is a waiting game. Just maybe the stock went up from 58 to 212, which is a little much for any stock. The downgrade came after a few big boys unloaded, which is not surprising. Jarislowski Fraser, Ltd. 3 Million shares and PRIMECAP Management company 3.6 million and Janus Twenty fund 1.4 million and Canadian Pension plan investment Board 1 million. This is the early stages of the commodity bubble beginning to POP. I say when Oil approaches 150 watch out.
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corbinb2

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corbinb2

I saw these insider trades after posting. Along with the downgrade, it would explain the relatively quick drop. However, it shot up pretty quick also so might just be a correction which is reverberating throughout the industry and other related stocks.

Potash in general has been the 'IT' stock choice lately and snowman's bubble theory makes sense. The question now is what does a Potash Bubble look like and when it pops what does it smell like?

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snowman

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snowman

With that tongue you got I was going to ask you what it tastes like? I see this kind of like the Rimm and BIDU bubble. Sharp pull back and continue on back up untill the final POP!

BIDU the mother of all SHORTS, when that one pops!

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WallStreetKing

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Sorry for that. I think that is a crook. but after our anger we should look at what they are really saying, hands off on Food and stop speculating at least on this. I have a 8% comfort level playing larger amounts of money. on IPO usually 12%. IPI is something each person will have to consider. I think it still is a good long term stock, maybe flip and sell short, if your not willing to wait or just sell.

The following article excerpt that is most relevant to me if I was in a trade.

A 2008 report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization suggests demand for potash will rise at a slower pace, 2.4 per cent a year, or an increment of 3.6 million tonnes by 2012. And yes, that takes into account the rush into biofuels over the next decade and an expected 50 per cent jump in global meat consumption by 2030 - trends that increase the demand for fertilizers but do not create massive shortages.

"Caution and realism should thus be exercised when attributing future increased fertilizer demand to bio-fuel production," the UN said in its report.

What's more, the UN expects potash supplies will grow at faster clip than demand, leading to expected surpluses. Surpluses, as most investors know, rarely lead to price spikes.

 Now for OIl. Rockefellers had there meeting they want alternative fuel strategy. HELLO what has been in the Papers for the last decade. anyway Oil will shrink, Bush is off his mark, don't buy into his hairbrain ideas. All the big oil companies are hoping for a slow and easy switch so they can continue to reap high gains. I think as the World crosses the no use oil agreemnet, we will see innovative and more fuel efficient autos on the market. like the VW polo. PEACE

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EnglishTeach

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I've seen a couple of articles about the dollar's strength.  If the market rallies (and the dollar rallies on hints of coming rate hikes) on Fed-nice speak, then commodities may not see the growth they saw in the last six months (more places to make money).
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