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"Hope" is gone...time to start over

DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com posted on 11/20/08 at 01:10 PM

Thursday, November 20, 2008

"Hope" is gone...time to start over

At the time when the last TV personality whore who could not care less about our money for as long as they were getting paid for whatever they were told to say by supervising crooks (long sentence? I don't care), so at the time when hysterically giggling Erin Burnett, nonsense talking Chinese Girl, bullish all the way down curly none knows about trader Peter Costa ( list goes on and on and on) - at the time when they stopped talking nonsense like"America #1" and "Financial Capital of the Known Universe", at such time market is getting close to the bottom.


Time to stop pumping borrowed prosperity, time to stop admiring cheap Chinese goods and start building factories in US, time to kick out Nardelly who screwed up at Home Depot, got obscene amount of money for that and resurfaced at Chrysler because he knew someone, time to stop admiring Warren Buffet (GS is $50 now - great deal he's got at $115) and Brad Pitt for one on a MILLION chance they were given, time to outcast Gasparino who "believes in Big Dick Fuld.

This IS THE TIME


Time to ask ourselves: "Whose fault was that? "


Time to be honest and say: "OURS"


WE let them DO THAT.
WE let them rob us.
WE let them get paid for nothing.
WE borrowed from THEM in order for them to get richer.
WE let THEM outsource our jobs.
WE let THEM leave us with no retirement we paid for.
WE let THEM ask us in an emergency room if WE have money to pay.
WE... WE... WE...
When are we going to stop being stupid lazy politically inert self deluding nation?
When are we going to stop playing "democracy"?
When are we going to stop saying: "Everything is really bad, BUT WE live in the GREAT country"? Huh??? Compared to what? Haiti?


Oh well...time for some charts - there is some light at the end of the tunnel there, some major ETFs completing TDSetup Buy this very week - up we go next?


Transports TDsetupBuy

2008-11-20-IYT_transports

Small Cap - TDSetup BUY


2008-11-20-SmallCap

Financials - DTSetupBuy


2008-11-20-Financials

Energy - TDSetupBuy 3 weeks ago - holding TDST - buy


2008-11-20-XLE

Dreaded $VIX (why pay attention after they started to trade options on VIX and totally skewed data?)

Not counting "super Spike" - it stalled at the current level - time to retreat?


2008-11-20-VIX

DavidDT

P.S. I am biased indeed, I've got stopped from multiple bullish positions (long calls and short puts) with losses and BIDU long trade initially totaling to 20%(!!!) of my portfolio is off 25% pulling portfolio down over 7% in just one week!!! That is too big of a risk I took and steep price I paid ( Am I talking Yoda?)

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Posted by DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com on 11/20/08 at 01:10 PM

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$tocker

Member since: Jul 08
5 Day 11.51%
15 Day 24.02%
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3 Month -16.62%
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As of: 01/06/09
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$tocker
Posted November 20, 2008 (01:28PM)
Don't even let me get started.  I made $128 realized proit today + -$8000 unrealized for today only.  URE, UYG, FAS, X,DIG,MSFT,CSCO, ERTS, blah blah blah.. Next 10-20% rally I am selling everything and waiting for another drop which looks like it will come as the doomsayers on CNBC keep talking about DOW $6000, and crude going to $40.

But going to buy a bunch of options most likely asap.  Had a whole ton of totally ridiculous options that I bought last week that I thought would expire worthless that got sold off with 10X-30X profit.. I had puts on Alcoa 7.5, GS ($5 put..lol), GE, etc. 


So frustrated here too.. I got greedy during the last rally and I was up 40%.  I wanted to milk it for one more day, and then now down about 10% at least..GRRR.. I had a ton of DIG that went up to $38.5 and didnt' sell.. I had paid $26.  Now it's losing money.

Pigs get slaughtered.  I was way too confident from October, because I had made so much money that it offset my losses and ended me up with a ton of unrealized profit.  I thought I would milk it more because I got brainwashed listening to CNBC rattle on all day about how we had reached bottom and to wait for the next violent move upward. 

That's all for now.  *Oink*  *Oink*  *Oink*

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Member since: Jan 08
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com
Posted November 20, 2008 (01:33PM)
"doomsayers on CNBC keep talking about DOW $6000, and crude going to $40"

Well, remember the time back in June when MS said"oil$150 by July 4th" and GS said "oil $200 by year end"?

That was the END of it - was it? You just had to read it right ( I think I posted "My hat off to MS" blog here with translation "get out of oil before July 4th" )
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JCullen

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JCullen
Posted November 20, 2008 (01:50PM)

David,
You said "Dreaded $VIX (why pay attention after they started to trade options on VIX and totally skewed data?)"

What do you mean?

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

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Posted November 20, 2008 (02:25PM)
"On February 24, 2006, the CBOE rolled out options on the VIX, giving investors a direct and effective way to use volatility."

I am not an expert on derivatives, but I think introduction of options in VIX induced some kind of "chain reaction". VIX is calculated based on puts sold on S&P 500 (from 2003 I think, so we cannot really compare "historical" tops in VIX) with rolling over to next month 8 days prior to exp.
SO, when traders see enormous number of calls traded on VIX, normal human reaction is to expect VIX to spike, therefore other group of traders buys lots of S&P puts ( directly pushing  VIX up) - affecting in term yet another group to buy pot more VIX calls. I am paranoid and I do know it, so if TK personal can express an opinion if such theory holds water - I would really appreciate it.
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locogmac

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Posted November 20, 2008 (02:26PM)
The only reason this account is staying afloat is because of my QID position, if not (all the rest are solars), I'd have given up on this account by now. Thanks to Obama, I managed to get QID at a nice price of 65. :)
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locogmac

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locogmac
Posted November 20, 2008 (02:32PM)
I don't get how the options on VIX serve a purpose as well. It seems like buying puts on the VIX is not a viable play. The only play on the VIX options is calls.
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JCullen

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JCullen
Posted November 21, 2008 (08:15AM)
Loco,
It probably seems that way because of how vol has been running lately. If you think back to 2005/2006, long calls on the VIX didn't get you very far.
They're actually useful for hedging, if you're more quantitative in how you trade. There are lots of institutional trading desks that only trade volatility, and keep their delta exposures tiny.

DT,
I think you overestimate the impact - VIX options are just another way of expressing a market outlook. What you should keep in mind though (this has been mentioned elsewhere) is that institutional trading volume has pulled back, and as equity managers go to cash - or even net short - there is less demand for protective puts and more demand for calls, in case short positions start going the wrong way. Maybe not quite what you mean, but that definitely impacts the VIX...
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