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Get ready for sustainable move higher.

Not an insane spikes, not a short lived runup, but long awaited cease of volatility and market coming back to normalcy after complete and utterly insanity of late.

The fact that market was able to move higher today without "pre-expire" Plunge Protection Team actions is a very good news for Bulls.

Climb will start next week from Tech/Biotech ( A.K.A. QQQQ), Semiconductors (SMH), will be followed by MidCap (MDY), SmallCap(IWM), then (SPY), (XLF),(RKH) and finally in 2-3 weeks (OIH), (RTH) and (XHB) will follow.
Once again, no crazy stuff - just a steady move up starting next week.
I am fully invested in UltraLong ETFs as of last week [in order of positions sizes]
(QLD)[50%], (UWM)[25%, (YUG) [15%] and some individual stocks positions (totaling for just 10% of portfolio) - no options due to expected volatility crash on wild scale, that makes me 100% net long, no puts, no shorts, no margin indeed...
All positions obviously slightly underwater [about -12%] - but I fill very comfortable for as long as recent lows are not broken.
DavidDT
P.S. If my point of view will prove to be correct I might even use some margin for the amount of 1/2 profit I will have in my account - IF I'll have it.
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Posted by DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com on 10/16/08 at 02:42 PM

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snowman

Member since: Mar 07

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Construction Union
Age: 40's
Pittsford , NY UNITED STATES
snowman
David I was thinking when it went to 104 that they would pin the SPY at 98 for options expiration. Now after the drop to 87 I am having second thoughts. I remember after the January drop everyone thought they would pin it at 135 and it ended up at 132. I usually go back to the old playbook when I am unsure of these things. So that means we would end up around 92- 96 range tomorrow with an emphasis on 92 because so many feel we go up tomorrow.
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locogmac

Member since: Sep 06

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locogmac
Looking for a good day tomorrow. Went long QLD today as well. Farther than that though, not sure. It seems like the huge down days are for the most part done with, and the volatility should be dropping as you said also. VIX puts seem like a good idea (Snowman). Just uncertain where we go from here, most likely meaning we trend sideways in a band. Now we gotta do some soul searching for that trading band!
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Member since: Jan 08

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Age: 40's
http://www.trading-to-win.blogspot.com/, CT
DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com
This market, first time in my trading life, exhausted me more that I can handle, I am really trying to stop being involved in day to day trading now and position myself for the longer term move from lower end of the range we might be stuck in for next few weeks. My stops set slightly below recent lows - if they will be taken out - I'll just get on cash and will take deserved (or undeserved) vacation - never felt so empty and tired in my life ( not even when lost most of my money back in 1997 Asian currency crisis).

I think I am about to quit trading, leave the family, eat the dog - and buy a boat and become Captain Ron :)
DavidDT
P.S. At least Bush learned the lesson and speaks when market is closed - someone smart explained him that none wants to hear anything from him, except for "I AM SO SORRY for what we've done. Take my money and money my buddies made and, please, if you can - forgive me"
No shame...
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Running_with_scissors

Member since: Nov 06

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Running_with_scissors
Why not take your dog and wife with you?

Do you think the open sea will be more forgiving than the market?   Hurricane season is almost over.  It is never too late to learn to sail.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmlUnX9fbdo&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypXlTh-19XE&feature=related
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EnglishTeach

Member since: Mar 06

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EnglishTeach
The lower rate for new housing may be good news if you look at from the perspective of an already flooded housing market.  LIBOR rate is slightly down.
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Running_with_scissors

Member since: Nov 06

5 Day 0.00%
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Trades 216
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Blog Posts 10

Running_with_scissors
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6476853a-9bc7-11dd-ae76-000077b07658.html

"US mortgage rates have soared this week in an unexpected reaction to the latest Treasury financial rescue plan, which has prompted investors to buy bank debt and sell bonds backed by home loans.

Interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, as measured by Bankrate.com, rose to 6.38 per cent on Thursday from 5.87 per cent last week - before the Treasury said on Tuesday that it would take equity stakes in banks and guarantee new bank debt."

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$tocker

Member since: Jul 08

5 Day 11.51%
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$tocker
I cashed out some positions and went into ultralong ETFs too.. My picks were SSO, DIG, URE, and UYG.  I had a couple more but they did not get to my ultra low limits...lol 

BUT things are looking great (knock on wood) so far with SSO($24), DIG($24), UYG($9), and URE($9.25).

I had also bought some ridiculously priced options for DIG, and SSO.  I think they have doubled already.. Waiting for 4x at least.

I am planning to buy some more Ultra longs on dips, and in the next mega rally I want to stock up no Ultrashort SDS for daytrade hedging.

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