DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com > Blogs

User Avatar
Brokerage Account

Member since: Jan 08

Favorite Links

"What and When" is the bottom?

"Bottoming" is the PROCESS.
It does not happen overnight, especially after humongous loss if credibility by people who were suppose to safeguard all the weak links. Instead - we are treating the very same people who screwed up like our own children, we have no choice but to forgive, and being Americans, to forget...and pay up...again...and again...
And just like in case of (I will be politically correct now) having "mentally challenged" children - we will be paying up all the way, we have no choice, we were left no choice...except for the difference that we might just stop "loving" our government and pull the plug one day...
Well, 'nough ranting, we can change nottin anyway.

Bottom after bear market (which is really just momentum/grows crowd performing panicky selling after being unpleasantly surprised that all "money making fertilizer Chinese cannot live without in reality is just another, pardon me, form of feces/tulips"

So, with momentum "hot shots" getting annihilated on yet another pipe dream ( like Pete Najarian's "Coal is a REAL Story"), market plunges and value investors, so called smart arses say their famous "I told you so" and they keep saying that until ...until valuations price in "unavoidable" Armageddon. So, value guys and girls ( like Karin Finnerman who thought of (C) as a value play since $27) stepping up to the plate and start buying with all the money they managed to keep while saying "I told you so"
That is component #1

When that begins to happen, the last shorts, who are smart and diligent, begin to cover positions they were holding for ages in order to protect profits they made by being smarter than hopeful idialistic late to the party idiots longs.
That is component #2.

And only after that bagholder "Mad Money" watching Joe Schmoe who was waving the flag all the way to the bottom and sold when Jane Schmoe divorced him for being an idiot and a gambler, so that Joe makes few extra dollars during few months he's been out of the market ( normally from 6 to 18 months - new money does not come easy) and then he decides to put cash back into mutual funds, of course by that time they normally 10-20% up from the point where Joe sold out. This is when "The new Big Thing" begins to develop.

And we all know how it ends up every single time, we heard it and, may be, said phrases like that ourselves: "I think I will retire at 50 with the way stock market/real estate/fertilizers/tulips are doing..."
Good luck suckers!
DavidDT
P.S. Valuations are really tempting now - start buying ...suckers!

P.P.S Word feces was used in place of "other speedo syndrom type word" which was removed from this post WITHOUT my explicit content and with no placeholder left in place -  which IS ilegal.

Edited by DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com at 10/09/08 at 02:35 AM
Share This! Report

Posted by DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com on 10/08/08 at 04:07 PM

Tag It

Comments

User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

ALPHAJC

Member since: Jan 08

5 Day 53.42%
15 Day 62.51%
1 Month 81.85%
3 Month -18.48%
6 Month -68.13%
As of: 01/06/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 853
Trade Notes 0
Blog Posts 25
ALPHAJC
You are absolutely right on.  All the geniuses from Ivy League schools, greedy traders and even moderate investors got wiped away and we're forming a clean slate ala 2002-2003.  I can't believe how so many people got it wrong and how so many people have gone broke.

The big recession is here but that doesn't mean the market is uninvestable, so many bargains.  It takes time, capital and a big leap of faith.
User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

Dale

Member since: Oct 08

Trades Not Shared
Trade Notes 0
Blog Posts 0
Dale
Boy, I'm glad I'm not live in the market now, or I'd REALLY be screwed! Hopefully, the fire will be out pretty soon and I can start investing.
The content and stock or option symbols on this page are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to invest in a particular security or type of security. Your use of the TradeKing Community is conditioned to your acceptance of all TradeKing Disclosures and of the TradeKing Community Terms of Service. © 2009 TradeKing.
Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients and are not indicative of future performance or success.
Quotes delayed at least 15 mins. Market Data provided by Interactive Data. Terms & Conditions. Powered and implemented by Interactive Data Managed Solutions.