January 18th, 2008

darylrs posted on 01/18/08 at 12:54 AM

OK, people.  Enough fear, let's see some greed!

 Or at least some cautious buying of good equities.  I haven't been around the block enough times to say that I recognize capitulation, but this market seems like it's done most of its deflating.  My approach these days is putting a little more cash to work for the Vanguard and 401 K.  I've got orders in for QQQQ and SPY for Vanguard, and AAPL for 401-K.  (My view on AAPL remains that it is a volatile stock in a great company which can afford NO trip-ups in performance and maintain its valuation short-term.  However, I think that within the next 10-15 years Gen Y and younger generations will overwhelmingly choose Macs for their homes over PC's.)

 My XLF June and Jan 09 calls are languishing, but I'm going to hold on.  Bought PLT 22.5 Feb Calls when the stock inexplicably dropped 10%.

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Posted by darylrs on 01/18/08 at 12:54 AM

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UPod posted January 18, 2008 (03:38AM)

Hi Darylrs -

Good post.  I agree with you that Apple is going to gain marketshare in the personal computer space over the next 10-15 years.    I do question whether were done seeing the market deflate.   To me, what were seeing seems like a slow drip.   I compare this environment to having a balloon and sticking a small pinhole close to where the knot is made.  The air comes out really slowly and you get this hissing sound.    Personally,  I'd much rather just stick the pin in the center of the balloon and pop that sucker.   Why delay the inevitable?

 

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lumburg posted January 18, 2008 (07:39PM)

Sell your Apple while you can.  Great company.  Great product.  It still has a P/E ratio that can't be justified.  As for QQQQ:  I'd suggest selling the QID you buy instead in a couple of years and buy back into QQQQ then--that way you won't have to sleep on your sister's couch during retirement.
If you love huge P/E's & think I'm crazy, then sell the AAPL & get some GOOG.  At least it has the potential for growth to (possibly) justify its jimormous P/E.

 

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