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a look back (inspired by Cory Rauch)

First of all, I'd like to thank rauchcory for sharing some tough lessons.  Cory took some pretty tough losses, a lot more than I took last year, and he was brave enough to share them and give some advice to the TK community.    --I had been meaning to do a one year retrospective blog (I've been trading since May of 2007), and Cory's blog reminded me to do that.  Basically, I got my butt kicked last year, but have done substantially better this year, and I wanted to give a little hope and encouragement to Cory, and anyone else who's had a tough time.  So long as you learn from those mistakes, it is possible to recover.    

Here's a look at my 2007 results: 

  $3,300.00 (total deposits)
-      675.45 (2007 Losses)
---------------
    2,624.54 (Dec 31, 2007 closing balance.  --I took a 20.4% loss in 2007.)

Let's see how I've done as of June 18th of 2008:

    2,624.54 (balance at end of trading Dec 31, 2007)
+  1,930.00 (2008 deposits)
--------------
    4,554.54 (Total cash deposited in 2008 + beginning balance left over from 2007 losses)
+  1,222.77 ( $1,227.77 in net realized gains as of June 18, 2008)
---------------
    5,777.31 (26.8% gain so far in 2008 on more invested capital than in 2007, so greater profit.)
           
Now, there are a couple of ways to look at this. 

I could say: "Sadly, with $5,230.00 in total deposits, I'm only up a total of $547.31, which is only a 10.4% gain over the lifetime of my trading. But still, that's doing better than having the money in a savings account." --That would be, to me, a fairly the negative point of view, at least, compared to what my hopes were.  And, really, at the end of 2007, after getting my butt kicked and taking the 20% loss over seven months of trading, it took some guts to come back and give it another shot.  My fiance (current wife) wasn't really gung-ho about my trading because I was losing money, and I was disheartened.  BUT, six months later, I've more than made back my loss.  In fact, in the first six months of 2008, I've made back almost double the amount of money that I lost in 2007.   Based on my current trades, at the end of this week, I probably will have made back double my loss. 

Now, granted, I'm trading with a much smaller amount of money than some people, and I didn't have "huge" losses last year, but 20% ($676), was a pretty good bit of money for a small-timer like me.  When you're used to just drawing interest on a bank account, losing 20% feels like a punch in the gut.  I've never had any "huge" losses.  The most that I've ever been down was about 30%, and I'm not sure how I would have reacted to bigger losses, but I like to think that I would have stuck in there.  The real key, for me, is that I never gave up faith that I would eventually become a decent trader.  I'm not sure that I'm there yet, but I'm definitely a better trader than I was.  I've hung in there during 400point down days, and margin calls, and I've learned from it all.  Hopefully, so long as I avoid those occasional crazy trades where I throw all logic and experience out the window, I'll keep doing ok.  Mainly, I want all you guys out there suffering losses to know that it *is* possible to come back from a decent sized percentage loss.  All those tough lessons, the losses,....er..."tuition" you have to pay the market, if you learn from those mistakes, a comeback is possible. 

Anyways, there's my attempt at encouraging a few of you who've had a tough time.  Although I knew some very, very basic information about the market, I had never traded a stock in my life until May of 2007.  I lost 20% after seven months.  So on Jan 1, 2008, I re-calculated my trading strategy and completely turned things around.  I've learned even more since then (selling covered calls...trading a few options), and so far, things are going well and seem to be getting even better. 

--With all that said, I hope that I don't lose my shirt tomorrow.  Mainly, I just wanted to encourage people who've lost a bit and take a look back at the last year.  I've managed to turn my trading around, and I like to think that if I can do it, other people can too.

So anyways, there are a few thoughts after 13 months of trading. 

(p.s. I'm writing this late at night, so if it's redundant or full of errors, I'll try to go back and fix it tomorrow. :)

edit: Keep in mind that the ROI on the side of the page is in "beta" and does not accurately reflect my true ROI.  My real ROI for this year is posted above. 

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Edited by DannyUpshaw at 10/07/08 10:20 PM
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corbinb2

Member since: Nov 07

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corbinb2

You pay for an education one way or another and even after that education you can be wrong once in a while due to just plain stupidity or things out of your control. THE KEY is too never stop learning.

 

The market and the trading environment are always changing, why shouldn't be always learning as well. I canot stress enough that you need to pay attention to what is going on around you. Reading and watching the 'world' with a peripheral eye on how it may affect the market may seem like a no brainer, but most traders have tunnel vision.

 

Reasons for buying or selling a stock initially are and should be no different than reasons to stay in a position. You need to regularly re-evaluate the positions you hold to make sure they still meet your initial criteria and logic. The point is to learn and stay informed as much as you can and by all means LEARN from the mistakes you've made or unlike Danny and Cory, you will just continue to see losses. Throwing money at the problem ONLY WORKS if you have learned from what caused the problem in the first place.

 

Thanks for the great post Danny and thanks to Cory as well!

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UPod

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UPod
Good post Danny.
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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Member since: Jan 08

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DavidDT Trading-to-Win.com

Danny, good post

Corbin - great comment, REALLY

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