Well, I've been blogging about the TTWO ERTS situation for a while now. I bought into TTWO today at $26.36, which was probably a little higher than I should have bought in, but with a standing buyout offer of $25.74 until mid-May, I didn't figure there would be much downside in the near term future. Plus, Grand Theft Auto IV comes out in a few days, and will likely blow beyond all expectations. People are guessing $400 million in one week of U.S. sales alone. I'm guess that we'll see that or more. Analysts agree that ERTS will have to offer $28-$30 to get their hands on TTWO. I didn't think the sale would go through at $26, but as EA are willing to wait until after GTA IV is launched to buy the company, I would say that indicates that they might be willing to pay more. Of course, the the merger could hit trouble due to concerns about EA having a near monopoly on sports games, but that would likely come later on down the line. When GTA IV sales figures are announced, I figure the price of TTWO will go up even more. The speculation of a buyout at higher prices will only add fuel to the fire. I figure we'll see $28 in coming weeks, maybe even $30. I figure this will be a short term speculative play. --Make some quick cash and get out. ...hopefully... if the buyout is called off though, the stock will likely plummet and I could get burned badly... so there is a little risk here.
For those of you who know nothing about games, here's the European commercial for the game, which kinda shows the general attitude. (You might have to turn the volume up to hear the music.)
European trailer: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZKExZ_C258
(Full disclosure, I've never bought one of the GTA games. )
