Well, per my post about AAPL, the preliminary results look like I was right. They did beat their guidance, but with AAPL, that's a given because they always guide low. However, analysts considered their guidance for next quarter to be a bit low. As a result, we had a mixed bag in after hours trading on Tuesday. AAPL shot up to $170, and then dipped down to the $150's, then headed back up to about $161, just below the closing price. Basically, the earnings and much of the news was good, but the guidance didn't satisfy, so they went back down. I didn't figure AAPL would be able to "buoy" the market, even if they did beat earnings. But who knows, they were back up in the 160's during after hours, so maybe the market is still digesting the news - after all, much of the news from last quarter was very good. We'll find out tomorrow morning. I bought a QQQQ put betting that AAPL's earnings/guidance wouldn't be able to satisfy the market. It's in the money now, but barely. One of the reasons that I bet against AAPL is that they are a "hype" stock, as I've mentioned before. People tend to get emotionally involved in aapl and overreact to their earnings and guidance statements. Often, with these "hype" stocks, a company has to completely blow away all expectations to a ridiculous degree, AND give a ridiculously high guidance for the next quarter for the market to reactly positively. Anything else is a let down. That's not always the case, but with big name stocks, that's what happens a lot of the time. The movements with AAPL around earnings time, from my limited experience, are usually substantial uptrend or downtrend movements - the classic up or down earnings "gap" the day after. Right now, it looks like the market can't decide whether to be happy that AAPL made a load of money, or be "sad" (heh) because they guided a little low. But like I said, AAPL did close down a little in after hours. We'll see what tomorrow holds. Forbes has a decent write up about the situation. SBUX's earnings didn't go so well and they got a 10% clip in aftermarket trading. That too, could help bring the market down. I've got a class from 8:00-9:15 tomorrow, so the market will have been open an hour before I find out if my put did well or not. (I bought a $46 put on the QQQQ. I paid $80 for it.)
Anyways, this is my first play buying a put and betting against the market...so I'll see how it goes tomorrow morning.
My Dell calls that I sold a while back are now worth less than half of what I sold them for. I'm tempted to buy them back and re-sell them the next time the stock spikes. If the Nasdaq goes down tomorrow, I'll likely unload the QQQQ put for a decent profit, and might even buy back the Dell calls at a fraction of what I sold them for. --Making money in a down market. oooohhh yeaaaa. --Keep in mind, this week is my first time really dabbling in calls and puts in any substantial way. So far, I'm pretty pleased with the results. Selling the Dell calls, especially, was a wise move. (By the way, when I call AAPL a "hype" stock, I don't mean to imply that AAPL don't have good earnings, because they do.)
One of my other stocks TCHC is down, but I'll be getting a dividend payment if I hold through May 2 and earnings come out May 6.
BRLC, which I sold my stock at a small loss months ago, jumped 30% a few days ago. Snowman was right when he said I should sell, but the stock jumped the very next day. Then, it went back down and went back up to about $1.00. About two or three days ago, a single well-known analyst upgraded the stock and it jumped 30%. Luckily, I'm still holding two 2010 options. Maybe by then I'll be in the money on those.
I was looking at the leaderboards today. Wow. I remember when all it took was a 20% return to make the leaderboards for the 1 day, five day, 1 month, and 3 month charts. Now, it looks like a 40%-50% gain is necessary for the 1 or 3 month, and at least 20% or so is needed for the 1 day or 15 day. Man, I've got to improve my trading style. You guys are raising the bar.
Well...just wanted to take a break from grading research papers..back to the grindstone...sigh... I've been laying low lately. Work is very busy, but blogging is "fun" for me, so there you go. :)
p.s. Upod. If you want to buy back those SBUX long term puts, you might be able to at a much lower price than you sold them for. You can always re-sell the calls again. Buy them back on a steep fall, sell them again on a steep rise. I haven't been following the options prices at all, but just a thought there man, something you might consider.
