Per a conversation with EnglishTeach, what do ya'll think of AAPL on Wednesday?

In my opinion, the market is going to follow AAPL.  Of course, the market often tends to overreact, so I'm guessing a big up or down day.  I figure that could be the day that my Dell covered calls get executed or I buy them back. 

I'm kind of a doomsday sayer in the current market.  Also, based on last quarter, AAPL will not only have to beat expectations, but completely blow them out to achieve the sort of profit that analysts want.  With cheaper flash memory (improving margins), the expectations are high.  So, I could easily be wrong, but I'm guessing that AAPL will perform well, but not well enough to bouy the market.  Thoughts?

Looking at Insider Trading for AAPL, there was a lot of sales near the end of March including the CFO. That could mean alot of different things, but doesn't look to me like a good earnings sign. Probably be flat or just off analysts predicitions, but I am by no means an expert.

Of course most of those sales were around $138-$140, so maybe they are kicking themselves now?...lol

At last look trading over $160 so maybe will be good news, but most likely correction towards December price.

Guessing a few cents over per share because of international sales and increasing market share vs. PCs.  They've already guided a little lower during the quarter, so that should help expectations.  I'm thinking the stock will move towards $170 and then pull back to low $160s on Wed afternoon before earnings.  (?) (Any thoughts on pre-market moves?)

If it reports strong earnings, it will move the market, because it will be an excuse for strong bulls to say, "Corporate earnings are strong, no matter what the banks are doing."  If it reports under, bears will say, "Consumers are reluctant to spend."

I'm not on the AAPLcart nowadays, but I am thinking of buying a put either late today or tomorrow in order to catch what I expect to be a Wednesday sell off.  Maybe a call late Wednesday.  Yes, I know, IV will be incredibly high, adding quite a premium to the options.

Overall the market really seems to want to disregard any bad news, i.e. biege book.  But I'm not convinced yet that we won't see another few 2% Dow selloffs. 

Haven't they like not sold an iPhone in the past month?  I thought I read that stores havent had any in stock, which makes people think that the hot 3g is dropping soon.  However, missing out on a month of sales is bound to hurt the bottom line somewhere...

 I think that good news is priced in, so there isn't much rational reason for a huge upward move.  

I live in florida and I just putchased an iPhone today, I was talking to the sales people about their inventory levels and they said they have yet to experience any out of stocks on the iPhones. So I guess the iPhone isnt out of stock everywhere.

HERE I GO,

The MACD is above its signal line, a 9day moving average and 0 this bullish condition implies that the trend is higher.

RSI Recent (Today) upward pressure may not be sustainable. While the shares could go higher momentum may be near a temporary peak.

Today AAPL closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is registering a bullish signal.

On balance Volume at 500 and sloping up

just breaking above the 200ma

Last earnings were above the street and a surprise, which AAPL has been trending in that direction over and over. I WILL SAY they will beat Wall Street Analysts estimates by .12 or 1.19, which street analyst have a 1.07 estimate. Plus AAPL Technical's will make another run for 200.00

why, because that is the nature of the beast in a not so good market. Everyone wants a piece of the pie and is hesitant to get off the ride. AAPL is a Good Thing Going.

AAPL has been on just about every sitcom or show on TV, it is embedded in our brain at this point like you have said in the past.

New Teenagers do not care about cost or the economy, they just want what everyone else has and they have the money to do what they please.

Fortune 500 teenage populating Jaffray survey. Which i think you also stated.

The following statistics are compiled

from a variety of sources, most of which brand this group "tweens," thus the use of

the moniker, "tweens" throughout this document.

• The Echo/Y Generation comprises the largest youth population in history:

there are 78 million between ages 5 and 20.

• Girls between the ages of 9 and 15 represent a group that is more than 14

million strong and growing faster than the overall U.S. population.

$24.4 billion in 1997 and approximately $35.5 billion in 2000.

• Aggregate spending by U.S. "‘tweens" will reach nearly $41 billion in 2005 --

a jump of 33.3 percent over "‘tween" expenditures in the year 2000.

• For older 12 to 14-year-old "‘tweens", both population and spending are

expected to grow. Yearly expenditures by these "‘tweens" are projected to

reach about $26.4 billion in 2005, up 39.7 percent from the year 2000. Their

families' aggregate spending on them is projected to grow 37.1 percent to

about $6.4 billion.

• In 1984, children were estimated to influence about $50 billion of U.S.

parents' purchases; the figure is expected to approach $300 billion in 2001.

• $3 billion is spent annually on advertising directed at kids - more than 20

times the amount in 1991.

• "‘Tweens" are more brand-savvy than ever before, choosing their hair, beauty

and fashion brands at a very early age, often narrowing them down to one by

age 14.

• There are more than 100 magazines aimed at kids younger than 15.
• Every top 50 market daily newspaper has a kids page or section.
• There are at least 10 kid-oriented cable TV networks.
• 54 percent of kids have a TV in their own room.
• 10 percent of kids have a computer in their room.

PEACE

WSK, thanks for the figures.  AAPL always produce earnings above their own earnings estimates, but analysts always expect a surprise from them (cause AAPL under estimates)... the question is will their earnings surprise be high enough to make the market happy.

David, thanks for posting.  Those huge gains you've got are ridiculous.  I thought I was doing good to have a 25%ish return, but geez man, you're kicking some serious butt.

And in general, thanks to everybody for responding.  I'd like to make a play on aapl, but I feel like their options are too high.  If I do get in, I'll buy a call and a put to hedge my bets.