DannyUpshaw > Blogs

User Avatar
Brokerage Account
5 Day 0.00%
15 Day -0.32%
1 Month 38.79%
3 Month -34.71%
6 Month -35.70%
As of: 12/02/08

Member since: May 07

Local companies (Can you recommend any?)

I started a forum thread on this topic here, but I thought I would mention it in my blog so people would notice the forum thread.  But before I get to the local company (and your suggestions), here goes a look at a change in my trading style.

Basically, the market is acting wacky right now.  All my favorite micro and small caps are trading at a freaking premium to what I paid for them about a month ago (CRNT, AFSI, AMSF, etc).  I bought those jokers at average costs of about $7.94, $13.00, and $12.55.  Now, they're trading (at close today) at $9.38, $16.70, and $13.80.  Basically, by selling too soon, I lost out on a good bit of profit.  My ROI is nothing compared to what it could have been if I had just held on a few more days with each stock.  Also, what's even stranger to me, is that many of them are holding their value when much more stable, large and mid cap stocks are getting hammered.  Granted, AMSF and AFSI are tied to the financial market to a certain degree, but CRNT is holding (mostly) on a speculative basis. (Although I bought them on fundamentals I figured I might see a double by the end of the year, I'm still surprised to see them holding in the $9 range in the bad market). 

So anyways, as all my favorite small caps are trading higher than I feel like buying at, and my research into new small caps didn't turn up any great deals, I turned my attention to mid/large caps stocks. I bought up some Dell at near 5 year lows, and I bought up some CTL (a local company) at near a 3 year low.  If I had the money, I would sink more money into both of these companies. (I promised myself that I would only graduall put money into TK as I sucessfully traded for a profit).  So, this brings me to my discussion of a local company - CTL.

I live near CTL (Centurytel).  It's trading at a near a three year low right now.  It's a well-managed company that's sitting on a pile of cash and has shown growth and increased dividends over the last few years.  Among the local community, there's been talk of a buyout for years.  I would say they are a definite merger or buyout target, but they've managed to avoid that fate thus far.  Either way, they're cheap right now and not trading too for above book value - that's a steal (in my opinion) for one of the top ten phone providers in the U.S.  They recently had a great Q4 (beat expectations) and raised the dividend.  The also completed a $1 billion stock buyback.  I'm actually debating selling Dell at a loss just so I can load up on more CTL.  In the short term, I see more of a probability that CTL will rise than Dell. 

The headquarters is about 10 minutes from my house.   --I snapped up 30 shares today.  I would buy a few more, but I'm cash strapped in this market. 

Anyone else have any local companies that they want to recommend?  You can post about them here or in the forum thread that I started. 

(Later guys, I'm off to teach a 5:00 night class.)

Add to del.icio.us Digg on Digg.com Submit to reddit.com
Bookmark It!

1 user tagged it: CTL, DELL, afsi, CRNT, amsf
User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

pretzel

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -12.34%
15 Day -12.72%
1 Month -34.07%
3 Month -63.55%
6 Month -79.39%
As of: 12/02/08
Trades 30
Trade Notes 1
Blog Posts 4
pretzel

Hey Danny,

 

I'm in Columbus, Ohio here.  Of course, since it's a fairly large metropolitan area, there's some large local companies that most people are familiar with such as Abercrombie and Fitch, Limited Brands, huntington bank, and Nationwide insurance.  However there are smaller, well respected companies too.

Two I can think of right now are Diamond Hill investment group (DHIL), a value-based fund, and worthington industries (WOR) a parts manufacturer.  There's also a shoe company who I haven't been able to find ( I thought it was RJ enterprises but i could be mistaken)

 

Cheers,

 

User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

WallStreetKing

Member since: Mar 07

Trades Not Shared
Trade Notes 41
Blog Posts 0
Serving Others
Age: 40's
NC UNITED STATES
WallStreetKing

I want to pinpoint buyback. I too thought buyback was great, (that sounds familar) any how. I am not digging the whole buyback thing, especially in this market and the future.

After all I have to think, who's money are they buying back the stock with? Then shouldn't they be using Money to grow or something like that! Instead when I think about the action it is more negative than positive in the realm of finance. at least for the investor, NOT for them.

 Sometimes it works, but more often it does not. I am sure it is a good company, but with the earnings thing going on, is a sure sign why they are headed in that direction. i wouldn't be surprised if they cut dividend (which seems to be the trend) like YSI did a couple of months ago, bought at 21 now moving UP from the 10 range (thank goodness) YSI earnings are a little better than last quarter but still negative.

I believe if you follow the volume of stocks that are out there on Wall Street you might find the stocks your looking for. certainly have a handful to choose from. STON was kicked out on my stop/limit then the price went back up. hoppin mad over that one, but a stop/limit is a stop/limit and I continued on my way. PEACE.

User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

WallStreetKing

Member since: Mar 07

Trades Not Shared
Trade Notes 41
Blog Posts 0
Serving Others
Age: 40's
NC UNITED STATES
WallStreetKing

Wizard_mage.jpgI have to add (again) (fantasy level) selling to early is alright, better to keep the power you have than to lose to chance. Sometimes I am a DUMMY and need help from my book of Technical Analysis Spells. They have a good deal on volume which i review frequently.

The problem that i have is the Elf rogue's of the Castle continuely change rules, making it difficult to see what the villagers are doing and what there feelings are. Since the Rogue action eliminates all the previous technicals up to that point (and take my money that i collect) I have to be patient to see what they are trying to recreate. I am sure it will be for the betterment of the villagers and me. Peace

picture in not mine: jcmrpgnpc.blogspot.com Wizard Sage.

User Avatar
User Avatar Brokerage Account

UPod

Member since: Dec 07

5 Day -2.98%
15 Day -0.71%
1 Month -26.63%
3 Month -38.18%
6 Month -44.32%
As of: 12/02/08
Trades 87
Trade Notes 21
Blog Posts 75
Programmer / Analyst
Age: 30's
Minneapolis, MN
UPod

Hi Danny,  don't know anything at all about CTL, but a couple things on their balance sheet throw up a red flag ( to me anyway ).

 Current liabilities are more than twice current assets.   Total assets are almost twice total liabilities ( 8 billion to 5 billion ),  BUT,  4 billion of it is  goodwill.  Heck, the goodwill alone is more than the equity.  Get rid of the goodwill, and you have zero book value.   I'm not saying the goodwill isn't legitimate - just pointing it out. Also,  I'm not sure about them "sitting on a large pile of cash ". Cash on hand is about 34 million ( long term debt is 2.7 billion ).  Those are some of the potential negatives that stood out.   On the flip side,  looks like they have a history of good sales and earnings.  Free cash flow also looks good.

 

The content and stock or option symbols on this page are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to invest in a particular security or type of security. Your use of the TradeKing Community is conditioned to your acceptance of all TradeKing Disclosures and of the TradeKing Community Terms of Service. © 2008 TradeKing.
Testimonials may not be representative of the experience of other clients and are not indicative of future performance or success.