Ok, I've been laying low for the past week or two without much time to trade or post blogs.  But, I should be back in action, at least a little this week, and I thought I would take some time to review my 2008 history thus far.

TTWO - I picked TTWO and bought at about $16.  Right now it's trading at about $26 after the EA buyout offer.  I sold the day before the bounce in an attempt to get in a few cents lower.  That was a huge mistake that lost me lots of profit.  If I had just "rode out" my initial pick, I would have profited about 40% in a few days time.

CRNT - I picked CRNT at 8.50, and priced in to lower my cost basis to $7.94.  I sold on the first jump $8.88, and I sold too quickly, and "lost" another few hundred dollars in profit because I sold too soon (Currently trading between $9.25 and $9.80.)  I made about a 12% gain, but if I had ridden out the upswing rather than "taking the money and running" I would have pocketed about 25% gain.  I will buy CRNT when they dip sufficiently again. 

BRLC - I've still got a couple of options.  I probably shouldn't own anything associated with these guys.  Bad management can really ruin a company.  Never assume that a stock won't trade below book value.  If management is bad, then don't buy the stock.  It's that simple.  However, their lender is basically managing the company now, and I don't think they're going to go bankrupt or get delisted.  Really, now is the best time to buy.  However, a "buy" at this point would still be extremely risky and speculative.  They still have a lot of problems, but the lender has a history of helping troubled companies, so I think this one will head back up eventually.  Still, I've gotten burned by this one enough times to stay out...I think.  (I guess, I still have some faith in the company because they have a billion dollars in revenue each year.  Surely, someone can turn that into a decent scenario.)  -- Oh yea, get this, at their current rate of not reporting Q4 earnings, it's entirely possible that they will be reporting both Q4 and Q1 earnings on the same day!!  Yup.  That's the level of incompetence at BRLC. 

AFSI - I've liked these guys for a long while now, and I still want to buy again.  I bought at $12.93 and sold at about $15 for a nice profit, but right now they're at $16.  Again, if I had held longer, I would have done better.  I will likely buy AFSI again when the price dips to the low to mid $14's.

AMSF -  An insurer with a good balance sheet and almost no sub-prime exposure. Only a few analysts cover them, and they barely missed expectations - probably because the analysts mis-calculated the prelimary data released by the company.  As of March 2008, it looks like insider's are buying.  The stock is trading at near one year lows.  I bought 200 shares today.  Might buy more. I'm already up about 20cents a share.  They don't trade options, so selling short term calls for quick profit is out.  This one is a buy, but if it doesn't bounce, the cash could be tied up for a while.

TCHC - I've liked these guys for a while now.  A lot of people got burned when they promised great earnings a year or two ago, but didn't deliver (hurricane season).  There's a lawsuit going on, but that doesn't worry me.  However, it might take a few quarters of reporting good earnings to restore market confidence in them.  I own a few hundred shares, but wish I had gotten in at a lower price.   I would price in more, but the stock doesn't deal in options, so holding until the stock is profitable to trade might be a problem for some people.  I don't expect a pop soon, but I do think one is coming.  Just like AMSF, they don't trade options.

AAPL - I'm still riding this beat up horse.  I might sell at $165 and get my money back, or just ride it back up to $200.  Not sure.

SBUX - These guys are having problems.  I think the stock is going to head down even further before things get better.  I think the rapid expansion has hurt the brand name.  My town had ZERO SBUX cafe's 18 months ago.  Now we have FIVE.  Whereas it used to be "cool" to go to SBUX, now they are the McDonald's of coffee.  I still like their product, with with gas heading towards $4 a gallon and their rapid growth, which is becoming a negative in my opinion, I think we could see $15 or below eventually.  (Sorry Upod. :)  --I could likely be wrong, but that's my take.  I sold my SBUX at a $100 loss earlier this year.  I know they're trying to establish a slight uptrend with the market, but I just don't buy it.

LOGI - I bought them at $24.33, and sold because the market was tanking and I wanted to free up some cash.   Right now, they're trading at $25.44.  Still a buy at current levels in my opinion.  I sold my LOGI at a small profit a few weeks back.

NVDA - Still a buy at current levels in my opinion.  A little too volitile for some folks. I bought at $17.88 in mid-March and sold for a small profit, but they're heading towards $20 right now.  Again, I would have been better off just holding for a few more days.

For the most part, 2008 has been a good year for me.  My biggest problem has been selling too early.  I've missed out on a substantial sum of money by "taking the money and running".  I will try to learn from this problem in the future, but it's hard not to book those 10% gains when they are money in the bank.  You know?

If TK allowed international trades, I would buy Ubisoft (Paris).  EA is going to buy them out eventually, or at least make an offer, and there will be some serious money to be made for those holding UBI.PA (I need to double check the symbol, but I think that's it.)  The offer won't take place anytime soon.  We'll have to see what happens with TTWO/EA before the Ubisoft offer is made, but EA has already made it clear that they do want Ubisoft.  Here is the TTWO takeover website (www.eatake2.com) that EA is hosting.  Is it just a concidence that they also bought www.eaubisoft.com (the site is not up right now) on the same day that they registered the taketwo takever domain? Nope.  That's pretty obvious proof (not that EA's own words in the past weren't enough) that a takeover bid (or hostile takeover) is already being worked up by EA.  They already own about 20%-25% of Ubisoft's stock.  My one complaint about TK is that I can't buy Ubisoft stock.  Maybe I can find an ETF that has them...

I think the days of gloom and doom over the credit crisis are not over.  It's difficult keeping cash on hand with so many bargains in the market right now, but I still think it's very wise to keep a cash buffer (either for buying or to deter margin calls) on hand in case the market tanks. 

As always, thoughts and opinions welcome.

I have been looking at my next plays also, while exiting others via handy dandy stop limits. Mostly waiting for the next piece on news after reading chicago purchasing managers indexs. Overall it will take a little more than a couple of point rise in this index to  Alleviate the troubles that exist in the world markets and as Pres Bush heads out of the country demanding that congress gives him something to do!!

Investors appeared to be making few big moves. It has been a dismal quarter on Wall Street, with financial companies' continuing credit market losses and the flagging economy wiping out investors' appetite for stocks. While the market has seen a number of up days during the quarter, overall the first-quarter trend was sharply lower

Unfortuanatly, most economists are stating we are at beginning EDGE of a Recession and I speculated as much just by looking around but believe it is more severe than what we know. Human nature dictates that we try to hide bad things from those that we deal with like any good Con Man does to unload the liability. The same goes for anyone that runs a business and believe there is more in hiding that needs to come out so that all of us knows the full truth. hiding or delaying the bad news only makes things worse for the little guys like us.

I remain cautious, and putting more cash on hand utilizing stop limits and putting off the buying for the next few weeks.

If the indexes move through there lower resistance targets on the 50ma and 200ma then I will not be surprised to see 11,700 even 11,200. that is my opinion. I believe the tiny runup today is a small precurser to the bigger fall. I hope I am wrong, but only positioning on the very cautious side. 

I agree that caution is needed.  Like snowman and you, I fear that the worst has not hit.  When I bought AMSF this morning, it was only because I saw how well the stock handled the huge dip on 3/17/08.  Well, that and the fact that it's trading near 52 week lows ($12.10). 

I was tempted to buy more today, but kept some cash handy in case of a big fall.

Hay D 

If I were going to look at these for swing trade for me to buy, this is what i see. 

 AMSF not sure about, looks like a sell to me or don't buy yet, if i had shares into it i would put a stop limit on it FOR SURE.

AAPL is a huge buy for the runup.

SBUX is a SELL or put stop limit on it.

LOGI I would wait for the crossover. then put a stop limit on it.

NVDA,Not a Buy yet, SELL or very tight STOP LIMIT

Of course those are for swing trade, short term long stock, not any option trading.

That is my unprofessional opinion without doing any fundamentals. I will leave that up to you or the buyers.

For Gee wiz, what i use is the advance chart in Tradeking, 1 year span, I use two SMA upper indicators by selecting SMA twice gives two different color lines. you can do more than two or just one. What do use if anything dan

then click on the colored box and change the MA moving average to 50 and the other is already 15. when the 15 ma is on top and the 50 ma is at the bottom the shares should be trading on the top of the two.

It isn't until the 15ma line crosses to be on top of the 50ma that is when I buy. since I was being a tuff guy i didn't use Stop Limit. Now I am a Pansy with more money because I use the STOP LIMIT. It hurts when your favorite stock hits that limit, but the reality, it is the truth that it should be sold.

Granted some others might use a more sophisticated procedure, but this is doing me well, and simply stating this in case others do not know. If you already know about this  and have something a little better, let me know PLEASE.

If you didn't know then simply try it on your stocks that you own and you might have a better outlook on your trades. enough said. below is the link for the explanation for others.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sma.asp

WallStreetKing,

     Generally, from what I've seen of your posts and my own research style, we seem to use different methods to make stock purchasing decisions.  I know what SMA averages are, and they do help give me a good idea about where a stock is trading, is heading, etc.  However, my stock picking style usually ignores SMA's.  I look at the 5 day, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year, and 5 year charts.  I check out the company history.  If the stock is trending down, I try to figure out why it's trending down.  If the reason that the stock is trending down is silly, then I try to buy at the bottom and (of course) sell at the top.  AMSF seems to have a history of good management, a good balance sheet, and has been unjustly beaten up.  Only a few analysts cover the company.  They mis-interpreted the prelimiary earnings data before the conference call.  When the company's earnings announcement didn't match their projections, the company went down a bit.  I've been using charts of the time period between March 7 and March 18 as a reference for when the market and stocks in general hit tested their lows.  AMSF hit $12.40, which seemed to be the bottom.  The 52 week low is $12.10.  I felt that buying at $12.55, when the company is in better financial shape than it was last year (trading at near $20) was a good value purchase.  The insider buying in mid-March only increased my confidence.  If I'm right (and I may not be), this is another small cap company that the market will eventually favor again (like CRNT and AFSI, my previous picks), and it will go up.  I don't like holding for long periods of time, but in the current market, I'm becoming more prepared to do so.

Really, I only look at the SMAs when I first examine a company - just to get an idea of what's been happening with a company - where the price has been at recently (50day average) and where it's headed (comparing the 50 day to a longer or shorter term MA).  Looking at SMA's is a good way to get market sentiment (trending down or up), but a chart works just as well for me.  Which way a stock is trending often has little to do with the financials behind the company. 

Usually, I try to do a detailed analysis of a small cap company.  That includes reading all news, history, reading/listening to past conference calls, etc.  I feel that SMA's are a reflection of market mood, which may or may not have a bearing on a company's actual worth.  Often, the market needlessly beats up good companies for no reason.  So, I don't trust the SMA's very much.  My logic is that if a small cap is making money, well-managed, and undervalued, the market isn't going to ignore it forever.  I try to buy near the bottom (obviously) and swing trade if I can.  However, as I usually buy companies based on fundamentals, I try to always be prepared to go long if I need to.  Therefore, I rarely set stop-limit orders.  There are times that I would save money if I did, but most times, I just ride out the storm and lower my average cost as the stock goes down (like I recently did with CRNT). 

--However, I have debated setting stop-limits multiple times.  But if I feel a company is worth buying stock in, I usually stick to my guns and ride out the storm (like I did with CRNT, which took a 25% dip after I bought, only to jump 50% within a few days). 

Anyways, I hope that explains my logic.  If the management, financials, and earnings are solid, then I'll likely be willing to buy.  Especially if the stock is trading at a ridiculously low earnings multiple.

Also, AMSF is based in Louisiana.  I've actually been to the town they're based in.  Trust me, NO ONE on the street is going to closely follow a company based in DeRidder, LA.  That's why they've got low volume and very little attention.  But like I've said in previous posts, the market won't ignore a company that "shows the money" forever.  AMSF isn't blowing out earnings, but they're doing quite well just the same.