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A look at the portfolio and the market...

I'm down a bit, but I'm not too worried.  Here's my take on the stocks that I hold... 

CRNT - hopefully hit bottom yesterday.  A small cap showing huge growth, zero debt, and an expanding market.  They help supply additional bandwidth to cell phone companies.  As smart phones are becoming more popular (surfing the net on your iphone), these guys are one of the worldwide providers that helps cellphone carriers meet bandwidth demand.  The smartphone market is only getting more popular and historically, the company has been well-managed and performed well.  I still like CRNT for the reasons that I mentioned in my trade notes.  the TK-Allstar post simplified my thoughts here.  --I think they may have been beaten up a bit more than they should have been because the market mis-interpreted their last earnings call.  Also, with the bad market the last few days, I think there was a lot of selling action with investors moving their money to safer, larger cap companies.  This is still a buy in my book (although I think I'm not going to buy anymore right  now until I get a better feel of the market...).  --It's up over 5% on the day.  To me, this indicates that it was oversold and people are buying it back up.  If it hits $7.20 again, I'll consider buying more.  Otherwise, I'm going to just wait it out.  Despite being down in the bad market, I'm still happy with my pick.  If I get desperate, I can always sell a couple of April options and get back whatever losses I've suffered thus far.  But, like I said, I'm not too worried about losses, because I think this stock is going to go back up.  If anything, I'll buy more on the next big dip.

TCHC - I'm still happy with this pick.  Particularly, I like the dividend.  Even in a bad market, I can hold this sucker and pick up a few dollars every quarter just by holding.  A company showing 30%-50% year on year growth and trading at a 5x P/E ratio.  That's ridiculous. (Also, book value of over $10 and the stock is trading at $12-$13. wow.)  I'm still quite happy with this pick.  My original examination of the company is here.  Nothing has changed, so I see no reason to be upset.  I may have to wait until earnings, but I see no news that makes me think this stock is going to break it's historical trend of good earnings over the last year or two.  If the P/E catches up to what other growth stocks are trading at, this should be worth at least $20-$30 by the years end.  That might be wishful thinking, but if the TCHC "shows the money" I think the price will eventually catch up.  Last year I traded CRNT in the $9 range and it eventually hit near $20.  The same thing happened with AFSI.  It traded in the $13 range for months before hitting near $20 recently and then going back down.  TCHC and CRNT are just another two well-managed small caps that will likely hit a big upswing when the market notices them.  Usually, a major publication will mention a good small cap, and then they get a big boost.   I've seen it happen before, and it will happen again.  I'm having a hard time swing trading to a profit in this market, so patience is a virtue here. 

SBUX - I still want to sell this clunker the next time it hits $18.50.  Does anyone think that it hit bottom yesterday?  If the market stays decent for a few days, I think it may actually get back into the $18's, at which point, I'm out.

LOGI - Sold for an extremely small profit this morning.  I just wanted to free up some cash.  I think the stock is still a buy at sub $25 prices. If you're willing to go long, even $25-$26 isn't a bad deal.  Looking at the five year chart, this stock always starts the year lower than it ends. 

AAPL - Sigh.  I can sell at a loss and free up some cash or hold until who knows when.  When will AAPL see $160 again?  June? July?

I don't like playing puts and options, but if I were a betting man, I would bet that oil prices will go down soon...I'm thinking less than $100 a barrel in the next week or two.  Of course, they'll go back up, but short term, I think the setting a record high every two days is going to end for a week or two. 

Anyways, enough patting myself on the back.  I'm down, but at least I've still got peace of mind. (crosses fingers)

 

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Edited by DannyUpshaw at 04/08/08 11:33 AM
1 user tagged it: CRNT, TCHC, SBUX, LOGI, AAPL
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Will Profit

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Will Profit

I know I make the right investing decisions as long as I can sleep at night.

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DannyUpshaw

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Yea, exactly.  During the tech crash, I had a friend lose $250,000 overnight.  He was heavily invested in JDSU and kept buying on the huge dips.  I think that stock eventually took the biggest downturn in U.S. history.  

Heck, over the last three months, I'm actually still in the green.  

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WallStreetKing

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SBUX has a 100% sell technical indicator http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=SBUX

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
 
16.80 16.44 16.95 17.46

 

If you like Yourself and don't want lose sell  SBUX or buy puts. Most do not realize Barchart Unles you want to wait a while. I did the same on YSI u store it down 38% but i have the dividend that was slashed 50%. listen to the technicals

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Will Profit

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Will Profit
Danny, if I lost $250k You would see me on the evening news standing on the edge of a very tall building!
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DannyUpshaw

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Hehe, well, my friend and his family are quite wealthy.  I'm not in the same boat as them. 
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DannyUpshaw

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Per wikipedia: "After the telecom downturn, JDS Uniphase announced in late July 2001 the largest (up to then) write-down of goodwill and business losses in business history: $45 billion. "
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cpholley

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cpholley
$45 Billion.... that's a lot , right?
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UPod

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UPod
Chump change.
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DannyUpshaw

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cpholley, --consider the fact that Starbuck's coffee, as a company, are only worth about $13 billion. 

now think about JDSU losing $45 billion in value.  wow. that's crazy just to think about it.  Of course, I bought jdsu years ago when it was worth about $3.95.  they had zero debt and had a $100 millon in cash after their stock crashed.  I did decently, buying at the bottom like that.

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cpholley

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cpholley

My sarcasm didn't translate well, but yeah, that's a whole lotta money....indeed crazy! 

So when's a good SBUX buy?  

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UPod

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CpHolley - The best answer I can give you is this:  It depends.  I encourage you to do your own research on the company and come to your on conclusions while taking into consideration you're investing style and objectives.  Sorry I can't give you a better answer than that.
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DannyUpshaw

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cpholley -- I caught the sarcasm. :) I was just trying emphasize the point a bit more. 

For me, I'm not going to buy any more SBUX until I'm sure that I've seen the bottom, which may have occurred yesterday.  However, I might pick up a call the next time the stock is down.  To me, they're a tough company to read right now.  I wouldn't be surprised to seem them sub $17 again though.

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DannyUpshaw

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Wallstreetking, thanks for the barchart analysis.  I don't use that site, but it seems very helpful in some respects.
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