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TTWO: A bit of bad luck on my part

So, I've made extensive blog posts on TTWO over the last few weeks.  Mostly, I was saying why they were an excellent price at the $15-$16 price range.

I bought a new house a few weeks ago (I will explain the relevance of this fact in a moment).  TTWO had been trading between $15.65 - $16.25 over the past few weeks, so I sold at $16.08 for a small, very small, profit with the intentions of re-investing at around the $15.70 level.  I had been watching the stock on a daily basis, and knew it would it that range again.  BUT, when I started moving to my new house, I went without internet on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  I come into the office this morning, and discover that EA has made a takeover bid of TTWO.  Now, the stock price is up almost 50% overnight. 

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

I missed out on a huge gain because I sold one day early and was too busy moving to buy back in.  My take on the buyout:

I think TTWO will not sell to EA.  When GTA IV comes out, the stock price would have hit $20 a share anyway.  Maybe as high as $21 or $22.  That game is a license to print money.  If EA were to buy TTWO for $25-$26 a share, that would be a freaking STEAL.   I severely doubt TTWO is going to take the offer.

Thestreet.com seems to agree with me: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Soleil+Says+EA+Offer+Does+Not+Fully+Value+Take-Two+(TTWO)/3397077.html

February 25, 2008 9:53 AM EST

Soleil Securities Group issued a research report this morning commenting about Electronic Arts (Nasdaq: ERTS) unsolicited $26/share bid for Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq: TTWO).

The firm said it agrees with Take-Two in rejecting the $2 billion offer as it believes EA has undervalued the potential for the upcoming launch of Grand Theft Auto IV and better earnings related to recent restructuring activities.

Soleil points out that EA's bid values Take-Two at about 18.8x a FY08 EPS estimate of $1.38, which is a 29% discount compared to its peer group's average P/E multiple of 26.5x. The firm said that if EA valued Take-Two in-line with its peer group, it would could have offered $36.57.

Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. engages in the development, publication, and distribution of interactive software games designed for personal computers, video game consoles, and handheld platforms worldwide.

So, let me get this straight.  I take TWO stinking days off of trading.  I come back, my portfolio is down a fairly large percentage, I've been knocked off a couple of the ROI leaderboards, and one of the stocks that I had been following very closely and just sold off jumps 50%.

one more time.... ARGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

...well, I guess now is the time to start looking for new value stocks, as my TTWO buying days are gone are current prices.

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Posted by DannyUpshaw on 02/25/08 at 02:23 AM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: TTWO, ERTS

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ReformedPatriot

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I feel ya bud. I was about to buy 40 shares (about all I could afford) based on what I've read from you and others. I got up to make breakfast when it was $17.36/share and come back 10 minutes later to see that I had missed out big.
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