Ok guys and gals, I made a good 15% profit on my TCHC sell yesterday.  I've posted about them in an earlier blog, here:  http://community.tradeking.com/members/dannyupshaw/blogs/4574-two-new-stocks

This is what I had to say about them then:

TCHC (Century 21st Insurance) - a small time insurer who was doing very well until the hurricanes and industry regulation hit Florida.  They may be on track to rebound... Here's some good reading: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080115/20080115005838.html?.v=1 This stock may be a bit more speculative than I normally buy into...but I don't see much downside at current levels ($11.60ish).  Volume is usually less than 100,000 on this one.

It turns out that I (and the people at the link above) were right.  They're making money again and blew out earnings.  At the CC yesterday, they mentioned that they were having some stiff competition, but basically, things are good.  There's a dividend coming up, they're still trading at a low earnings multiple, they're debt free, and they're still re-couping money from the state of Florida.  The link above has a decent explanation.  They were expecting $2.50 per share on earnings, but made $2.69.  I sold yesterday and booked a quick profit, but I'm thinking of doubling down at a higher stock price, which admittedly, could be shooting myself in the foot.  I wanted out before the CC so that I wouldn't lose my profit on any bad news, but there wasn't any bad news at all that I could see (other than increased competition and lower profits on a few products), but still, they're profitable again. (A few years ago they were a good company that was wiped out by hurricanes and industry regulation in Florida.)  By my count, they've got a book value of over $10, and are trading at $13.50. 

Please be aware that this is a speculative play on my part, but it has played well so far.  If your considering investing in TCHC, I'd suggest double checking my research if you want and listening to the CC yourself.  (All that probably goes unsaid, but still, I don't like encouraging people too much on speculative plays without giving some warning.)

Like I said, so long as the price doesn't jump too high this morning, I'm debating doubling down.  I think this is a $15-$16 stock in the next few weeks, maybe as high as $20 by summer.  ...I could making a mistake here, but at the very least I'll get the dividend.   I'll see what the price does this morning before buying back in.  You never know, I might have missed something in the CC that the market didn't like.  ...I don't think they gave any future earnings estimates...which the market hates...but we'll see.

Edit: I bought back in at $13.61.  Let's give it a few days and see what happens.   --I expect some volitility....some up and down... but given a few days, perhaps a week or two, I think the stock is going to trend up.

Update #1: Well, since I bought back in, the stock is falling.  Still though, I'm not overly worried.  The market is down today...if it keeps falling, I'll just average down.  I see very few downsides to this investment, at least in the long term.

Update #2: Poof! Like magic, it's two hours later, and I'm back in the green.  This morning was hopefully just some profit taking in the down market.