Per my previous trade notes and blog entry, my research indicates that AFSI is a great company.  I recently sold and took some profits.  The reason for the recent spike seems to be that Investor's Business Daily recently put AFSI at #17 on their list and made the stock one of the "top five" picks of the day, or something along those lines.  The last time AFSI made IBD, the stock shot up to over $20.  So, if you're interested in why the price has suddenly went up, IBD probably has something to do with increased buying interest.  Also, earnings will come out soon.  The stock is dipping today, along with the rest of the market, but I'm not sure that I'm a buyer at current levels.  I love the stock, but it's difficult to tell if it's going to go back down to $13.50 or keep heading to $17+.  I'll wait it out a little while longer, until them, AMSF is my new racehorse.  My thoughts on AFSI are reflected in an earlier blog post, should anyone care to read.

Actually, since my last blog post, the $15.09 price tempted me a bit too much and I decided to buy.  I didn't go all in, but the market is down 300 points today, and AFSI was down nearly 7%.  I see the stock fluctuating between $14-$17 until earnings are released, so I figured I would buy on the 7% dip and sell again before earnings.  I figure the stock has a strong chance to hit $16 again in the next few days.  I'll probably wind up making $1 profit per share, or something along those lines.  Worse case scenario, AFSI goes down again tomorrow, and even then, I love the stock and have complete confidence that it will go back up eventually.  Like I said, I didn't go "all in" and if it does tank, I can always average down buy purchasing more at a cheaper price.  I trade short term, and buying on a 7% dip seemed like some easy money if the stock rebounds in the next few days.  I figure it will rebound, and a quick $100 (I only bought 100 shares) seemed like an easy call.  

When I posted, the stock was at about $15.75 or so (if memory servers correct).  When it dipped a full 7% in one day, I thought that was a ridiculous dip, so I decided to buy.  Already, the stock is back up above what I paid for it.  AMSF, another insurer that I just caught on to, is still above my purchase price of $13.43 also.  So far, this trading year has been good for me.  Up 17% in realized gain in January alone.  I hope I can keep that up. 

Thanks for the comments,

--Danny

turns out I was right to buy on the 7% dip.  I sold at mid-day today after the stock had rebounded a good 4%.  Luckily, I made my profit at mid $15 and got out before it went back down to lower $15.