Ok, let's take a look at a few stocks... 

AFSI, one of my favorite smaller companies, is running with the rest off the financials.  From $10.60 to $13.50ish over the last 5- days.  Earnings are on Tuesday of next week, so I expect them to run up even more before the earnings call which is at 9:00 in the morning (in my time zone).  Now, the stock may not run up.  But I own 600 shares, so even if it pops to $14 (which it almost hit today), I could be looking at at nice profit. (My average buy in is $13.50.)  Even if I bail early and sell at $14, I'd make $50 x6, which is a $300 profit for only waiting four or five days.  --Hey, it's not the double that Wachovia had, but still, not bad.  Anyways, I'm not going to see until closer to earnings...I think there is still some room to run.

AMSF is another small cap insurer that I blogged about earlier this year.  I wish I had held on to them.   When I was trading them at $13ish, I got tired of holding.  Now, that stock is above $17. 

CRNT is another small cap that I trade.  They handle cell-phone network backhaul.  They've been growing like crazy for the past few quarters, and if you can buy below $7 (maybe even at $7.25ish) I recommend picking them up.  I unloaded my small postion a few days ago for an ok profit.

I've got some TTWO right now, and many of you probably remember that I was blogging about the TTWO/ERTS merger for a few weeks before eventually giving up.  Thank goodness I did give up, because ERTS has extended the offer for a fifth time at this point.  The market has basically lost confidence that the buyout is going to happen, and the stock is trading at $24.00 when the buyout offer is at $25.70 per share.  ERTS current offer expires on Aug 18 (I think) and the FTC investigation is set to end on Aug 21 (I think).  They probably expect the FTC to rule early.  In a press release, TTWO has said that they are "discussions with multiple parties, a number of whom have been conducting due diligence."  Basically, they're claiming that someone else is in talks to buy them out.  I'm not sure what to make of this.  Also, the term "due diligence" is quite vague.  What does that mean, exactly?  I know what TTWO wants me to think (that they've got another potential buyer waiting in the wings), but I'm not sure what's happening here.  Now that GTA:IV is out, Midnight Club Racing 3 is on the way, and GTA: Chinatown Wars has been announced for Nintendo DS, Bioshock 2 is on the way...the Bioshock movie is on the way.... all those things make me think that TTWO should have a decent future and is probably worth more than EA is offering.  However, I don't know that investors are willing to wait that long.  EA (ERTS) could let the bid drop and come back later, but if they've got any sense, they probably don't want to wait.  Someone else could buy TTWO, or TTWO will only get on better financial footing (which is very likely). 

My opinion....barring FTC problems, I think the buyout will go through.  If ERTS doesn't follow through, then I suspect someone else will.  I'm in at $24.60, and I'm down right now.  However, I think the stock, at the very least, will go back up before the expiration of the current buyout offer.  Should be an easy $115. (crosses fingers).  If they up the bid, I'll do even better.  I don't see them dropping the bid, but if they do, it will probably be after the FTC rules. 

I'd like to hear your thoughts on 21st century holding which you've mentioned before although a while back.  They keep showing up on my value screens.  From what I've read, I've gathered the 2 biggest threats are hurricanes and state-sponsored insurance.

Cheers,

G 

pretzel, if I remember correctly, TCHC's profit went up last quarter, but revenue or premiums written, etc, whatever was down.  Basically, going on memory here, they cut expenses and raised their profit, but overall business was down.  Investors looking at small cap growth stocks want someone who's showing continous growth.  I keep my eye on them still, but I've seen no reason to buy lately.  They are cheap...at a low multiple...but I want to see how their business picks up before I jump in again.  I did some extensive blogging on them a few months ago.  ...eventually, I held through earnings, and they did well, but the downturn in business (despite the good earnings) hurt them.  --At least, that was the only reason I could see them tanking like they did.

So anyway, you can read over some of my old blogs if you want to see my analysis of them.  I was pretty gung ho on TCHC, but I'm not even sure about why the stock went down.  What I wrote above is my best guess. 

I'm still watching them.  I hope that helps.  I prefer AFSI and CRNT.  I've watched those guys for over a year and like both companies - although you have to be careful not to get in at too high a price.