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What the F? Ford That Is...

So I don't actually own this stock, although I am playing with it in my virtual trading account. However, it seems to me that you would silly not to jump in on this one right now? Maybe I am reading this wrong, but with a pending purchase of 20 million shares by Tracinda Corp. at a price of $8.50 per share and the current price for Ford (SYMBOL: F) at around $6 to $6.25, this seems like a no brainer to me.

Now I realize that the negotiated price by Tracinda includes some inflated value for other reasons, but still it would seem that Tracinda expects this stock to actually be worth $8.50 a share at some point or they are just trying to create a huge loss to offset something else.

Recently Ford announced they would be switching gears, pardon the pun, moving away from large trucks and focusing on manufacturing more fuel efficient vehicles. There was also talk of selling off the Hummer brand. (corrected as per Upod comment) These and other factors seem to scream BUY FORD now, but it seems like I'm still missing something here? Is it really this simple? It's like the clouds parted and the answer was right there in front of me...OK, a little dramatic, but had to throw it in for the purpose of justifying the inserted image.

I was bullish on this stock back when it was hovering under $6 and close to $5 a few months ago and I still think the too big to fail strategy applies here. Time will tell, but thought I would post this for at least some interesting discussion.

Edited by corbinb2 at 10/07/08 at 03:20 PM
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Posted by corbinb2 on 06/13/08 at 04:58 AM

Tag It | 1 user tagged it: F, Ford, Tracinda, bullish

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Will Profit

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I believe it's just more dumb money being poured into a failing company. People believe "gee, xxxxx is buying a big stake in this company. That MUST mean it will improve significantly." This is not always the case. I wonder how happy, "guru" Carl Icahn is with the current huge loss he has incurred so far with his huge stake in YHOO?
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corbinb2

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corbinb2

Ultimately, they are paying $8.50 per share and will want to get that back out of it at some point. Whether they manipulate the price somehow or whatever to do it, you should be able to buy now and set a limit sell of $8.50 and as Mr. Popeil would say, "Set it and Forget it"...?

Though using crappy Ronco products as a standard may not have much appeal...lol

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UPod

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I agree with Will 100% - Dumb money being poured into a failing company.   Remember when BOC bought Preferred shares of Countrywide for $17.00.  They pretty much flushed 2 billion right down the crapper.   Now they're buying the whole kitten caboodle for about $5.56 a share at current prices ( Countrywide currently trading at about $4.80 ).
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UPod

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UPod

Also, when Prince Alwaleed bin Talal pumped more money into Citigroup back in January,  the were trading around $27-$28 a share.   These big investors have so much money they can afford to take these types of risks and wait years for a return.

Although Tracinda is purchasing F for 8.50 a share because they believe Ford is "starting to achieve highly meaningful traction in its turnaround efforts."    They make no mention of when they expect the investment to pay off.

If you believe F will hit $8.50 are share at some point,  the question becomes,  how long are you willing to hold on to the stock till that happens.   It could be years away.

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UPod

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Hey Corbinb2 - don't mean to be a nit pick,  but just want to correct something in your post.

Hummer is owned by GM.   I believe Ford recently sold Land Rover ( along with Jaguar ) to a company in India.

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corbinb2

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corbinb2

IF, and that is a big if, the $8.50 price materializes, that is a conservative $2.00 per share gain. If you had the time to wait it out, and don't need the money for anything else, that is a fair 30% gain for your trouble.

Of course, what is to say that Tracinda doesn't buy the shares now at $8.50, and then continue buying privately at lower prices to average out there overall cost and then dump the whole batch? Lots of if's and uncertainty...Like I said I don't own them, was just curious about these events. Great feedback so far!

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TrueGrowthPotential

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...and Bill Gates put money into Pacific Ethanol (symbol: PEIX)