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Member since: Jan 08

Looking for a safe harbor?

Hello Everyone,

 I like to know what everone looks for in the crazy markets that we've had over the past 2 months. I tend to listen to a lot of CNBC in the early morning and usually watch "Fast Money" at night. I only do this to get a general market sentiment.

 With that said, everyone seems to be screaming that the sky is falling! Well I don't buy that. No one has ever made money from panic. Try to remain calm as possible. Look for the opportunities under all the selling. The key for me is the charts.

After I hear how well the metals are doing, I look for a "short" opportunity. When I hear how bad the financials are, I look for a buying opportunity. It just goes against human nature to think like this. But when you look at a chart and you see the PPS at close to a 52 week high or low, I dig deeper.

What do the financials say? Does this company make money? How is their debt situation? What % of the O/S is held by instituitions? How big is the short interest? That's as far as I look for the fundamentals.

 I then really look at those technicals. I use the RSI (5) and RSI (14); the MACD, the ADX, the PPO, the SLOW STO's, and the Accum/Dist idicators exclusively. I then throw it up against the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages to look for support and resistance.

 After all this and I think I may want to pull the trigger, I ask one final question. Where do I exit if I am wrong and where is my exit if I am right. Hopefully this removes as much emotion as I can out of my trades. I don't want to marry the stock........ Just use it.....LOL

 

Any thoughts?

 

Boca_Bobby

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Serge

Member since: Jan 08

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Age: 20's
Chicago, IL
Serge
I agree. Short term trends are difficult, if not impossible, to predict. As Buffett says, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when other are fearful."
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harley

Member since: Aug 07

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harley

I say, don't buck the trend.  If the sellers are in control as they have been, don't fight the tape.  The S&P charts look to be creating a wedge pattern within a downtrend, so it will be interesting to see if it breaks out to the downside to search out some new lows.  You can't go wrong with credit call spreads on SPY.  Write as far out of the money on the front month and collect the cash.  If the tape runs against you, buy em' back and rewrite them at higher strikes.

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