Investors Retreat From Bullishness, Latest TK Survey Finds

bigdog posted on 05/11/11 at 10:30 AM



It's always interesting to take the temperature of individual investor sentiment with our quarterly survey. The latest one, released a few days ago, was no exception. You can check out the full May survey results here, but here are the chief takeaways:

  • Bullishness on stocks took a 10-percentage-point dip among survey respondents since the last survey in late January. 
  • Investors wouldn't be shocked by a 10% market correction or greater before the end of Q2. Specifically, 40% of respondents chose no when asked, down from 48% in January. Similarly, 34% of respondents opted for "yes", up 6 points since January. 

  • Oil prices remain the #1 trade trigger for respondents, while unemployment fell out of the top 3. Respondents chose Energy and Commodities respectively as the sectors they think are good picks from a long position in the next quarter. Top shorts: Retail and Gold.



As always, I like to open up the survey's questions to a broader group - so what do you make of all this? Do this quarter's survey findings jive with your own opinions?


[image: Question by Jan Tik on Flickr]
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Posted by bigdog on 05/11/11 at 10:30 AM

Comments

MichaelCastillo posted May 11, 2011 (09:11PM)

I wonder, what percentage of total market volume do online traders represent...?

bigdog posted May 16, 2011 (04:53PM)

Very good question, Michael. That stat has been climbing for years and is obviously a key metric benefiting our business. There are various firms like Forrester and Gartner that try to measure those things, but their methodologies and results can vary greatly. Suffice it to say: it’s both healthy and always growing. There is a steady “generational” growth, as you can draw a line – maybe it’s at 30 years old, maybe 40, below which almost nobody trades offline. Then there are certain events that periodically amplify that steady growth curve. A recent example - TradeKing saw a surge in growth after the 2008 financial crisis hit – with lots of new online investors fleeing their “full-priced, no-service” brokers in favor of self-directed online trading.

You might also find this 2010 Aite Group report interesting:
http://www.riabiz.com/a/789014

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