Earnings: up or down?

bigdog posted on 10/12/09 at 10:32 AM


Just a quick straw poll to ask two burning questions:

1.    Which way do you lean this earnings season? It’s a hot topic on every investor’s mind lately. Bears note that signs of economic recovery are slim and fragile, and that the market run-up seen over the summer is due for a correction. Bulls are quick to point out that year-to-year numbers show just how far a company has (or hasn’t) come since the Big Market Slide last autumn.

Which way is your earnings-arrow pointed: up, down or sideways?

2.    Which sectors or stocks will stand out this earnings season? Do you have any stocks in your back-pocket that you think are likely to surprise the market, for good or for bad? What are they, and how do you plan to trade ‘em?

If you’re not using it already, don’t forget to check out TK’s Earnings Calendar, under Quotes + Research. (Don’t forget to login first.) This tool is your best friend during earnings season to track all the announcements, analysts’ expectations, and more.

Best of luck trading the earnings-waves out there – here’s hoping you stay out of choppy waters!

[images: Arrow of the North by CJ’s and the arrow by cjc4454 on Flickr]

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Posted by bigdog on 10/12/09 at 10:32 AM

Comments

Chickens_thumb Brokerage Account

closer posted October 12, 2009 (07:26PM)

Earnings will be up, not steping in front of this train.
All Aboard
Best Closer
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Man-song-puppet_thumb Brokerage Account

corbinb2 posted October 13, 2009 (09:13AM)

Earnings should be good enough to sustain this rally through the holiday season. While the recovery signs are fragile they are still there which means bulls have something to grab on to. The economy IS actually getting better (how could it get worse?) and as long as slow and steady growth continues and the feds start pulling out we should hold above 9500 on the Dow for a while.

One interesting stock I have already put into the IRA account is AA (ALCOA). Commodities in general and building/manufacturing materials should see some pretty steady growth well ahead of an official recovery. Of course with the market being fairly well speculative at this point, how growth translates into the price of a stock is going to be skewed somewhat, but my guess is that companies that provide the materials other companies need to 'make stuff' should do well this earnings season.
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Don_new_profile_image_thumb TradeKing Staff Member

bigdog posted October 13, 2009 (02:50PM)

Sounds like two strong votes for positive earnings. Anyone want to argue the opposing view?

Interesting points on your sector pick, too, Corbinb2. Speaking anecdotally, it does seem like lots of major construction projects were put on hold when the crisis hit, and that now many builders may realize they can complete their jobs with discounted labor and materials and with some promise of buyer demand on the other end. Anyway, let's hope you're right!
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Dubai-towers-dubai_thumb Brokerage Account

Trench warfare posted October 13, 2009 (04:24PM)

Another vote for up, I already rode the GE train (materials/manufacturing), up 25% last month. With 'free' capital being given away hand over fist by the Administration and Fed I will not become a Bear in this market until they realise that the Bull that we have now and for probably the next 6-12 months is the precursor to inflation and over adjust like 4 years after the Great Depression. Bears have been calling for a correction for 6 months now. I think it's a little early for a major correction, as we have seen from the present posts I think 75%+ of the market is bullish right now, ask this question in 12 months when the Administration has run out of $700b dollars and the Fed tries to start fighting inflation we should have a 50/50 split opinion. Just my 2 cents.
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Don_new_profile_image_thumb TradeKing Staff Member

bigdog posted October 14, 2009 (10:11PM)

Hey, it's not for me to fight City Hall. If the bulls have it in this earnings season, I'll certainly be happy with that. ;-)

I found your big-picture take on all this very interesting, Trench warfare. Let's check in in six months and see if you're right!
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Dubai-towers-dubai_thumb Brokerage Account

Trench warfare posted October 29, 2009 (09:23AM)

Wow, looks like we didnt need to wait 6 months I was so far off. Looks like earnings have not been bad for most companies, but outlooks have come back negative, which oddly enough they have been for the last year. Its strange that all of a sudden people are hearing 2010 will be a rough year out of the earnings reports and we have gone into a pull-back. My unrealized losses have wiped out my realized gains from the last 6 mos, but every stock I own I am happy being long in, guess I'll just stick to covered calls till we get some positive news to bring everything back. 
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Don_new_profile_image_thumb TradeKing Staff Member

bigdog posted October 30, 2009 (09:23AM)

Yup, this earnings season definitely presents a mixed bag for traders. Even if the news is good, investors are just as likely to view positive earnings with skepticism, combing the numbers for evidence of topline growth as well as cost-cutting, worrying about future factors can could squelch any green shoots, and so on.

Bottom line, though, sounds like you're hanging tough, with your portfolio more in the black than the red? If so, congrats! Let's just navigate now to less choppy waters and ride this uncertain period out.
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Dubai-towers-dubai_thumb Brokerage Account

Trench warfare posted December 05, 2009 (01:11PM)

Summation of earnings season, from Bloomberg. Up 11% looks like joblessness is paring down and all those dire warnings for 2010 may be unfounded.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aCLBmnGq2pPM

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