Seems like I’m seeing stories on energy everywhere, both traditional sources and alternative energy. The biggest driver seems to be oil’s steady climb, reminding us all of how quickly we could return to $4+/gal gasoline. Ouch, remember that?

Meanwhile, a carbon emissions/ cap-and-trade bill is making its way through Congress – if only we could siphon off some energy from the political scuffles surrounding that one. Seems like a good time to brush up on the latest reads on these hot optics – particularly the ones geared to trading any developments.

T. Boone Pickens (of Pickens Plan fame) is back. In his article for the Huffington Post “Time is Money: About Half a Million Dollars a Minute”, he minces no words in reminding Americans of what we funded in buying $21.6B of imported oil last month: terrorist-cell training throughout the Middle East and  Hugo Chavez’s next limousine. TK traders had a brisk debate on the Pickens Plan last August; I wonder where your opinions are at now?

Another great read is this Editor’s Pick from SeekingAlpha, “Green Gold Trumps Black Gold” by Hard Assets Investor. It summarizes the findings of a recent report of the U.N. Environment Programme tracking past and future investments in alternative energies – and the clear potential for upside. Definitely a good read if you’re interested in trading this sector.

In the here-and-now side of energy, Google (GOOG)’s green energy czar just told Reuters they’re close to paying the same price for energy from renewable sources as they would if that energy came from coal. Could the world’s biggest search engine blaze a path for other organizations to follow to alternative energy – why not?

Meanwhile, the biggest question mark is which alt-energy technology will ultimately prove the winner to power us into the future. Who knows which that’ll be, but right now some smart money says it’s solar.

SeekingAlpha’s Kelvin Schulle reports that the Chinese government just announced its first solar-subsidy program, to the tune of US$1.45B. Meanwhile, Zack’s maintains their HOLD recommendation on Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Barron’s and BroadPoint AmTech like First Solar (FSLR), plus there’s stiff competition coming from Germany’s Aleo Solar along with other German firms.

Are you guys planning on trading any of these developments? If so, how – and what other resources are informing your decision?

[image: Forum Solar Array by laurenatclemson on flickr]
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I would be more inclined to wait and see if Obama will give the thumbs up to nuclear energy.  I come from an utility background and think nuclear in the long run would be a better alternative than windmills, etc.  But that is just me.  Freeing up oil drilling sites off the coast and in Alaska would be a plus also.  So far I have steered clear of 'Obama's alternate energy plays'.  Just not a fan.

The whole cap and trade item continually gets moved into the global warming debate, where it then becomes easy to put those in favor of alternative energy against the ropes with accusations of hindering capitalism to hug trees.

Whats scary Big Dog is the oil rig count declines by many refiners.    Like any business the drillers and refiners are cutting costs where they can so they are profitable. Any disruption in the food chain and it will be a big hiccup at the pump! Its kinda scary when you think about it.  The oil patch could become even more valuable if a disruption occurs.


I dont think we need cap and trade tax on now with this recession.  Washington leave us alone right now, our electric bills are just fine, thank you!  What politicians wont talk about though is the methane global warming problems coming from cows!  Dont want to upset the Dairy and Cattle Industries.

I agree with Pro Vix, windmills and solar plants are not as cost effective as coal and nuclear.

incubus said: The whole cap and trade item continually gets moved into the global warming debate, where it then becomes easy to put those in favor of alternative energy against the ropes with accusations of hindering capitalism to hug trees.
The argument about how so much our money finds its way into the hands of extremists gets ignored in favor of political accusation and meaningless deabte.
I say both reasons are extremely strong arguments for alternative energy.
The debate over the detriments to capitalism are somewhat moot as well, as the oil industry subsides, new industries in alternative energy arise in it's place, BP openly advertizes that it actively participates in alternative energy research and developement.
It likely costs them now, but longterm it will give them the edge as hybrids did for Ford over GM.

 Leaving politics aside, cap and trade will easily raise electric utility bills 10%.  I have worked as an engineer for a publicly traded utility for a long time.  The cap and trade cost will be passed on to the ratepayer.  That is you and me.  I am all for alternate energies to lessen our dependence on foreign oil, but I think oil drilling needs to be expanded, nuclear power plants need to be on the design board now (10 years minimum to get a plant online), keep our coal plants operating, and expand our natural gas usage.  The scrubber technology has greatly reduced emissions from the coal fired plants and there are plans to further filter out the harmful by-products from coal emmisions.

Thank you BigDog - I just thought that it was about time for Ba-Boone Pickens to crawl from under the rock.
Please keep us posted - we need to know when Kenny "G" A.K.A. Hebner will be back.

I just love to catch phrases of "Kings" such as Gartman, when they say "Nat gas will go to 2c" - that marked the bottom for nat gas in my trading books.

Big Dog, what do you think of Mirant Corporation?  If you're interested in energy MIR seems like a great place to consider investing.  The fundamentals seem outstanding to me at first blush.  Looking at the level of institutional ownership and 5% owners like BNP arbitrage and Paulson, I think there's a lot of optimism.  Any idea why MIR is having so much trouble moving up from its current pricing?  Fears of lingering low demand, poor management and too much debt? 

Mendelsaur
I doubt BigDog will answer that question (specifically of MIR opinion )- disclosure states that any of TK personnel never gives investment advise :)
But you may watch what Boone Pickens wife buys/sells (like in case with CLNE at the time when Boone was "pumping" nat gas)

True, answering that question could appear to be investment advice.  I was simply hoping to promote some discussion of MIR ... anyone who trades the energy sector have an opinion?  Thanks for the heads up David DT.  As for T. Boone, I've made it a rule not to do what any celebrity investors are doing.  Usually doesn't make sense for the little investor like me.

Same hourly chart zoomed - my conclusion (just like a broader market - SHORT)
http://screencast.com/t/WrJ1m4FeJ
http://screencast.com/t/Be8xFyrS6

As for "celebrities"
take a look at the date of this post and tell me if I despise these people for a good reason

http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2008/07/faces-to-remember.html

Yup...it is 3AM and I am still doing my market homework :)  (I sleep from 11AM till 1:30PM  :)

Guys, as usual I'm better informed all around after having read your comments - thanks. I recall reading in the Journal that some stimulus money has been allocated for new nuclear plants - did anyone else catch that story?

DavidDT is right - I can't comment on specific stocks like MIR. But hey, think of me as the emcee to start conversations; by all means talk this or any stocks out with the group. That's what the thread is for!

Politics aside, I do wonder how you might be planning on trading these developments? Do you see energy investing as a possible hedge against more expensive electricity in the near-term?

For those of you who work in utilities, what news source / blogs do "insiders" rely on to track energy sector developments like these?