When the Dust Settles, The Humbling of the World and Myself
ALPHAJC
posted on 10/08/08 at 05:38 PM
I have to admit I was a bit greedy. I bought stocks that I thought were
value stocks, but I didn't realize that the world was going to
drastically change from 2007. I lost half of my net worth in a period
of 3 months, and I have to say I've been greatly humbled by this
experience, absolutely humbled.
My parents got greedy too. Because they wanted more and more money,
they kept their business too long when they should have sold and lived
in a home way too big for their own good. My dad owned 3 cars when he
needed only one. Now they won't be able to sell their home or business
due to the credit crisis. I think they've been humbled.
In my view of an ideal society I wanted all the greed and super-size nature of this nation and the world wiped out.
I hated the fact that my parents were trying to live beyond their means...
I despised the fact that greedy CEOs were making tens to hundreds of millions of dollars a year...
I hated the fact that baseball players were making 20 million dollars for a game they play for fun...
I hated the fact that Simon Cowell was making 20 million a year critiquing singers...
I hated the fact people were flipping homes for huge profits, defrauding lenders...who in turn defrauded borrowers...
I hated the fact that labor unions were demanding 6 figure salaries for unskilled labor...
I hated the fact that illegal immigrants were leeching off America at the expense of taxpayers and American workers...
I hated the fact that politicians only cared about themselves and big money and ignored the needs of the public...
I hated the fact that Vegas went from a city of gambling and fun...to a mecca of greed and outlandishness...
I hated the fact that people were collecting fat pensions and retirements undeservedly...
I hated Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns
and Merrill Lynch for being so greedy and same went for hedge funds and
private equity...although I wanted to be like them
I hated the fact the stock market became nothing more than a war
between people who wanted it to keep going up against the people who
wanted it to melt down.
In a period of 1 year, John you got your wish and in exchange you became broke too for being greedy too.
Let's not discount the gravity of the fact that we've destroyed 40% of
the world's wealth in a period of 12 months. Almost exactly one year
ago, the stock markets around the world hit an all time high. Today we
are back to levels of 1998 (the year right before the dot com bubble).
This is a drastic change, but this is no time to panic. Most of us will
still have our jobs (although pay raises, bonuses and promotions are
likely a thing of the past), we'll all be able to have food on our
tables and we'll still have our friends and family.
Fraudsters don't have people to defraud anymore, bribers don't have
money to bribe, bears don't have much of a stock market to bring down
and bulls don't have money to rally the stock market.
Let's look at some of the richest people in the world and how they are
doing. Carlos Helu Slim (of the America Movil fortune) net worth has
been cut in half since the peak. Kirk Kerkorian (of the MGM Grand
fortune and Ford Motors) cut by roughly 75% from the peak. Sheldon
Adelson who went from having a fortune of 1 billion dollars to over 20
billion dollars in just 3 years from his Las Vegas Sands fortune...is
back to having around 2-3 billion dollars after taking an 80% haircut
in his stock. And in a last ditch effort he just loaned his company 600
million dollars to keep it from becoming insolvent. And lastly the
Ambani Family (of Reliance Industries) and Mittal who both went from
running steel mills in India to becoming the wealthiest families in the
world...have been cut roughly by 50-75%.
Nobody needs to cry for them. They still have more money than everyone
reading this put together multiplied by 1,000,000. But losing 75% of
your wealth in 1 year, is a jaw dropping and something that isn't to be
taken lightly.
Two people who I admire greatly for their philanthropy and wealth
creating magnificence are Warren Buffett and Bill Gates. They both
pledged to give away over 90% of their wealth and were doing things the
right way. Bill Gates of the Microsoft fortune has sold a bulk of his
stock already and what he has kept is just back to 2006 levels, and
from knowing his investments he has monies tied up in precious metals
and healthcare that are doing just fine. Warren Buffett of the Berkshire
Hathaway fortune, is at exactly where he was at the beginning of the
year. He warned about the subprime greed 5 years ago, he called credit
default swaps "weapons of mass destruction" and people laughed at him
when his stock wasn't doing so well over the past few years. Now flush
with cash and will, he's gobbling up his greedy competitors and
distressed assets at fire sale prices and will make a fortune.
Unionized government workers who regularly striked and bribed their way
to insane pensions and extreme pay and overtime for remedial
work...good luck collecting on that in the future all state governments
and the federal government is going broke. For those welfare and social
service abusers out there...good luck collecting on that. For the
United Autoworkers Union who demanded and got $50 an hour pay for
pushing buttons on robots that built cars...we can say "ha". For
politicians who got away with taking bribes from Wall Street, oil
companies and fannie/freddie...you can't rely on that anymore, they are
all broke and if you don't listen to the people, we are ready to come
out with pitchforks and torches. Wall Street fat cats...if you were
smart you may have sold out at the top and gotten out and hoarded
cash...but how are you going to make the big money in the future?
Illegal immigrants who demanded amnesty and leached off our generous
social services and jobs...the door is closing (or has closed
actually). The most pro immigrant president in US history George Bush
has begun to boot them out and there are no jobs out there and the
government is too broke to pay for your social services. Arnold has
once again vetoed driver's licenses and college financial aid for
illegal aliens. America has to return to caring about its people and
not everyone in the world. You can only be generous for so long.
Who's next? Athletes making and demanding more and more money will be
humbled soon. Not this year, not next year but soon. How much longer
can tv stations pay billions of dollars for tv contracts, when they are
going broke and how much longer can sponsors dole out millions for
endorsements when they are broke and how much longer can fans pay
insane money for ticket prices and concessions to watch a game? Actors
and actresses will be hard pressed soon collecting 20 million dollars a
pop for starring in movies. Studios are going broke, they can't keep
spending hundreds of millions on bad and overpriced movies when the
credit market has dried up. People will stop spending $12 for a movie
and with internet piracy, DVD sales will soon be dead.
My boss at work who is probably the one of the hardest working and most
generous person I know, said to me "people are getting way too greedy"
sold his entire stock portfolio in March and went into all cash
including his 401k. I was definitely questioning what he did and for
awhile it looked like he was wrong when the market ripped into May. But
then things went south and now we know what happened. Now flush with
cash he's picking out bargains and I am humbled and broke.
Future Outlook
------------------
I really feel this is going to be a very different world we live in
going forward. Everyone has to save money, be less greedy, be "green"
and help one another. The stock market will recover, but never to its
highs again for a long time. Banks are broke, hedge funds are broke and
nobody has the capital to inflate the market for awhile. But there are
real companies, with real earnings out there and can be bought at once
in a generation firesale prices...companies trading for the cash and
physical assets they have...companies trading at 5x forward earnings.
This is the time to average down but not take any great risks. The
central banks around the world have gotten the message and will prevent
a further meltdown, I am positive of that. The coordinated rate cuts were definitely needed and the fact that they were able to convince the inflation hawk Trichet to cut, was a feat on its own.
I think all the gold believers will be greatly rewarded as every
currency in the world is being greatly diluted. Who wants depreciating
pieces of paper when gold can be had. Can anyone find gold? Every gold
dealer I've visited is out of stock. Physical demand is at an all-time
high, but yet prices don't reflect that. Nobody needs to rush in and
put their whole remaining life savings in gold, but everyone should be
accumulating some gold now.
We're all ultimately paying the price for our own and everyone else's greed.
If you have read my words, thank you very much.
Edited by ALPHAJC
at 10/08/08 at 05:41 PM
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