I appreciate all the comments to my "Obliterated Account Based on Bad Hunches and Theories" blog posting.  Obviously I got hurt very bad by this market...but I took a good shot at trying to get rich quick, failed badly and will move on.  I didn't lose anything that will cause me to get evicted or starve, although I do need to cut back on spending going forward.

Today was a very interesting day...every commodity related stock not just gotten beaten today, it was drawn and quartered.  Stocks like MOS pulled back to its 200 day MA, something it hasn't done in over a year.  CHK fell below its recent capitulation point of 55.80 and any stock that has anything to do with fertilizer, oil/gas, copper and gold is at a 3 or 6 month low.

Only commodity stock with its head intact is Coal...where stocks like Cleveland-Cliffs, Walter Industries and Massey Energy only pulled back to where they were in a couple of weeks ago.  I'd imagine coal has a lot to fall if Dry Bulk Shipping stocks are predicting the future.

For the first time this year...I think we've seen the end of the commodity bull run.  The markets are rightfully predicting a global slowdown where even China and India will slowdown a bit.  And that's all that is needed to trigger a massive selloff in anything commodity related.  July was the worst month for commodity sector in years....August is likely to prove even worse.  

I still would like believe Natural Gas has a great future in the U.S. and other nations.  It is a commodity that we have massive amounts of, is clean burning and can be easily adapted for use in cars, trucks, buses, power plants and anything else requiring combustion.  Politicians are still refusing to adopt it as a viable alternative energy source while they still get drunk off the bad ethanol.  So until that changes...I don't think Natural Gas stocks are good anymore except for a long-term holding.

What we now lack in the market is leadership.  We looked to tech stocks for the lead, and they failed us.  Oil/Gas stocks are combusting and Ag stocks are starving.  Financial stocks have been leading lately, but they are unable to carry much of the broad market much higher and you have to be kidding if you think the credit crisis is over.  So what does this mean?  We'll know more after the reaction to Cisco System's earnings and Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow.

Stability is something we like to see instead of these daily jawdropping 10-20% gyrations in different sectors.  

A fall in commodity prices is what everyone wished for, and boy did everyone get their wish or what.  But an implosion in commodity prices due to demand destruction isn't good for the market.  

While I put the brakes to my trading activities going forward...I will look to be freeing up money to buy Gold Bullion coins, 1oz at a time.  I just don't buy the fact that the US Dollar with strengthen and I do expect all the scared around the world to start hoarding gold.  And unlike owning the GLD, I won't feel the declines.

If oil does run to $200 USD, I don't think it will be due to just increased demand and shortage of supplies.  The currency markets just do not understand what kind of fiscal problems that the US Govt is facing.  We are running annual 500 billion dollar deficits and will be printing well over 1 trillion dollars to continue bailing out bad mortgages.  And by continuing back Fannie and Freddie, we are continuing to reinflate the housing bubble when it needs to pop.

Instead of promoting home ownership to everyone making minimum wage in this country...we should start reverting to what home ownership used to be.  A homestead, rather than an investment.  Start requiring 20% down payments and end the mortgage tax deduction.  

I has heared China forced closure of factories and has cut in half the number of cars allowed on the road in an effort to decrease air pollution during the olympics.  This may have been the most visible cut in oil demand.

I agree with ALPHAHC regarding the elimination of mortgage interest tax deduction.  The government has inflated the bubble with interest deductions and removal of capital gain tax, resulting in people buying homes expensive enough that the interest is as high as their income.  Yup, the government socially and financially engineered people removing themselves from the income tax rolls by over extending themselves.

Regarding price, I'd like to throw into the ring that it doesn't matter who's assumptions are correct.  Where there is an imbalance between buy and sell interest, the price moves.  This is very much a game of might makes right.  At this time a very powerful player has been playing in the market.  The government is making bailouts with your future income.  This player also has been changing the rules of the game, restricting short selling.  Right or wrong, there are always going to be much larger players than me in this market.  If I am wrong in a big way, there is opportunity to profit the sooner I reverse my position, run with the powerful and get out before the powerful roll over and crush me.

Presently, I am a fence sitter.  Ultimately I am afraid I will be crushed.  I believe the next pot of gold for these destructive financial engineers is grabbing after everyone's retirement through taxation and inflation.