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Posted June 11, 2008 (11:37AM)
ok, i'm young and i figured i would give options trading a try, i was up 100 percent in a month and lost everything the next month. i then read graham's The Intelligent Investor and I realize I haven't been too intelligent. I also read Peter Lynch's book, which I didn't like too much, and I have a copy of security analysis on the way. One company I really like right now is Noble Corp. NE. It is an offshore drilling company that drills for oil and natural gas. They have a 40 percent profit margin, an excellent balance sheet, and a wonderful business model. 40 percent of their rigs are already contracted out until 2010, at ever increasing prices. Honestly, we may see a slight pull back in oil but for the long run I am extremely bullish and the reasons are this: I doubt the federal reserve will constrict liquidity enough so that the dollar will rise in significant value, they may just hold it steady for a while, and that is a big may. Another point I would like to make is the obvious of emerging markets, but also that Japan seems to be turning around and the US might again one day, so with all of these factors considered I thing the long term economic model is great. They are as profitable as their competitors but their balance sheet is relatively marvelous and they have been buying back stock. My only question is am I paying a reasonable price. It is currently at 65, which I would wait for a little pullback anyway, but it has had a steady run over the past year and a half but I still think there is a long way to go. The forward PE is 8, and I know Graham says not to trust forward PE's but NE's business for next year is practically contracted out already, its not like most company's projected earnings. Anyway, I would like to get somebody's feedback on the 65 price. Book value is at 17 per share.
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