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Determining valuation of a company is tedious as there are countless measures to determining the true value of a company. Share in ideas of value opportunities and allow members to help help determine those bargains and whether or not they really are.

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Value Investing Forum > The New Value Group
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Casey

Member since: Jul 07

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I created this group as an aspiring value investor. I'm no seasoned veteran in the field but I certainly do enjoy the analysis end of this strategy. I often find myself tring to determine whether or not a stock is cheap, or just plain no good. Many times, the numbers look very good to me, but I would love other perspectives and angles as there is always one more peice of criteria to consider before determining a stock is cheap. I usually look at book value to market cap first, then determine why the ratio is so low. Another thing I like to consider is short interest. I am a bit of contrarian and like to see high degrees of negativity towards a cheap stock as it give the stock ample room to grow not only due to the under value of the stock but also short coverings when that the under value is recognized by other investors. Let me know what things you like to look for in a cheap stock.
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bigdog

Member since: Dec 05

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Hey Casey - you might want to check out some of the recent Trade Notes from rivercity (and maybe see if he wants to join your new Group here) - it looks like he has been buying some stocks he identifies as good values right now.

Be Good,

Don Montanaro

TradeKing CEO 

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Casey

Member since: Jul 07

5 Day -2.16%
15 Day -1.43%
1 Month 1.67%
3 Month 12.16%
6 Month 37.05%
1 Year 56.89%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 651
Trade Notes 25
Blog Posts 5
Sales
Age: 30's
TX UNITED STATES
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Great recomendation. I'll check it out. Thank you.

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rivercity

Member since: May 07

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Yeah - I'm buying value, but it's still a bit scary at the moment.
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anacott

Member since: Sep 07

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Company President
Age: 40's
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Hi, If your into value investing, like me, then you've got to check out www.valuengine.com and www.stockdiagnostics.com - IMHO
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cmont

Member since: Apr 07

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One of the main things I try to do to help me learn value investing is read books on the topic. One of the best that gives general information is the classic by Benjamin Graham, "The Intelligent Investor", another that has been the best I've found to explain Discounted Cash Flow is Pat Dorsey's, "The Five Rules for Successful Stock Investing". This book also gives a great introduction to methods of analyzing stocks using the value approach; the last chapters have a great general discussion of various company sectors. The 3rd one is difficult to obtain but worth the effort to find a copy to read cause they cost over $1000. The book is Seth Klarman's, "Margin of Safety". The insights it gives one into the value process are exceptional. I ordered my copy to read from our local inter-library loan program. I'd also read annual reports and get a book to learn about financial statements such as the one by Bernstein&Wild, "Analysis of Financial Statements". Hope these help.
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Casey

Member since: Jul 07

5 Day -2.16%
15 Day -1.43%
1 Month 1.67%
3 Month 12.16%
6 Month 37.05%
1 Year 56.89%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 651
Trade Notes 25
Blog Posts 5
Sales
Age: 30's
TX UNITED STATES
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These are excellent recomendations cmont. Thank you. I also got a copy of Phil Town's Rule #1 Investor audio book from member Upod and it was excellent. It is one of the few books that actually gets down in to the nuts and bolts of how to value a stock from a value perspective.

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cmont

Member since: Apr 07

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Casey 

I bought the Town book.  I like it too.  I'm trying to set up a spreadsheet that will let me input the data and give me an idea of the value of a stock.

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lucky rabbit

Member since: Feb 08

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ok, i'm young and i figured i would give options trading a try, i was up 100 percent in a month and lost everything the next month.   i then read graham's The Intelligent Investor and I realize I haven't been too intelligent.  I also read Peter Lynch's book, which I didn't like too much, and I have a copy of security analysis on the way.  One company I really like right now is Noble Corp. NE.  It is an offshore drilling company that drills for oil and natural gas.  They have a 40 percent profit margin, an excellent balance sheet, and a wonderful business model.  40 percent of their rigs are already contracted out until 2010, at ever increasing prices.  Honestly, we may see a slight pull back in oil but for the long run I am extremely bullish and the reasons are this:  I doubt the federal reserve will constrict liquidity enough so that the dollar will rise in significant value, they may just hold it steady for a while, and that is a big may.  Another point I would like to make is the obvious of emerging markets, but also that Japan seems to be turning around and the US might again one day, so with all of these factors considered I thing the long term economic model is great.  They are as profitable as their competitors but their balance sheet is relatively marvelous and they have been buying back stock.  My only question is am I paying a reasonable price.  It is currently at 65, which I would wait for a little pullback anyway, but it has had a steady run over the past year and a half but I still think there is a long way to go.  The forward PE is 8, and I know Graham says not to trust forward PE's but NE's business for next year is practically contracted out already, its not like most company's projected earnings.  Anyway, I would like to get somebody's feedback on the 65 price.  Book value is at 17 per share.
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lucky rabbit

Member since: Feb 08

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3 Month 170.98%
6 Month 70.17%
1 Year -52.49%
As of: 11/20/09
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and please excuse my many grammatical errors
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SandiG

Member since: May 08

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Hi all,

I am still learning how to evaluate stocks, but usually well managed companies with strong financials are safe bets (maybe not for the short term, or day trader). But currently there are alot of stocks that have been beaten down in price, and I feel are great buys. I have added to my holdings such stellars as GE, MSFT, PFE. There are also alot of banking stocks which pay decent dividends that are great values. JPM, FITB, CHFC are a few that I have invested in. I am also trying to purchase stocks that will profit with the economy. Natural gas is expected to prosper. Check out these low priced companies with great financial strength- TGC, and TMR.

Good luck, and Happy investing to you all!

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RK27

Member since: Nov 08

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semi-retired math teacher
Age: 50's
Lynbrook, NY
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Hi, I'm new to TK and new to this group.  Currently reading the Graham book; but don't know if I can put in the time to evaluate stocks as the book suggests.  Can't the stock screeners on TK or Morningstar save a lot of the leg work?   If using TK screener what filters and levels would one suggest
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cmont

Member since: Apr 07

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Hi all,
I see that the traffic on this forum has gotten as scarce as a winning stock.  I have bought a few new stocks since the crash began for sure in fall '07 and have added to a few I already owned.  The ones I owned continued their tumble and the new ones went down also but are back in the green ink now since I bought at low prices.  Some I bought were CAT because of the stimulus spending on infrastructure, MOS because we all have to eat and plants need fertilizer (trust me on this-I used to farm) but it's financials are strong too, particularly its cash is 2X its debt, APH whose products I'm aware of since the '60s has strong free cash flow, return on equity and low debt.  I also bought WLT because I think oil is going back up particularly when the current spending rampage by govt leads to the inevitable inflation to follow--but it seems the insane 'cap & trade' program may spell doom for the only cheap and immediately available energy source we have today--coal.  

Any comments on these stocks or any others would be welcome.

Charlie