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Market Timing (ETFs) Forum > How long will this rally last?

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MLtrader

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Posted March 25, 2008 (01:06PM)

unloaded my EZA today for a small loss which is good because I got in the wrong time a few days ago due to the collapsed of Gold prices.  Could've hold my Golden Dragon a little longer.  could've used an extra $4K profit today.    A little disappointed at not taking small gains this morning from my SPY puts and Merrill Lynch puts.  Could've got back in at better prices level.  I guess the rally will have to take a breather sooner or later.. hopefully tomorrow.so i can take some gains off the table.
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Posted March 26, 2008 (05:48PM)
Sold all my puts and everything is back in cash.  Could've profitted more, but I guess you can't have it all.   There maybe a gap down tomorrow morning due to bad news came out of Orcl and a late rally attempt failed to material today.  May look for a few SPY calls tomorrow, but let's see how things play out in the morning. 
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Posted March 28, 2008 (12:00PM)
Should've left my puts on the table.  It would've been a fabulous week.  All I hope for right now is window dressing March 31, that may give me a good bounce to unload my calls.   Can't see any good news coming out in the near term.   This market goes sideway at best in April.       
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Posted March 31, 2008 (04:33PM)
Got the chance I need to unload my calls and took a small loss. Everything is back in cash.  Although bad news are still pouring out, it seems like the market is somewhat jaded by it and not reacting too much.  However, when we see a little positive like today from the manufacturing number, we see a good bounce.  At this level, I think the downside is still limited by the January low, making it very risky to short at this level.   The upside is not too great either..good for a few quick in and out trades.  Let's see what happen tomorrow..    
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EnglishTeach

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Posted April 07, 2008 (09:22AM)
The dow has settled into a fairly predictable range.  (been trading the DIAmonds).
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Posted April 07, 2008 (02:16PM)

I haven't traded the Diamonds, but I have it in my tracklist.  I trade the SPY.  I like the liquidity and the spreads on the options.  What are your near term predictions?     

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EnglishTeach

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Posted April 08, 2008 (06:34AM)
The dow seems to want to stay in a small range.  Not much news out this week.  I think some jobs/employment data comes out thur?  What definitely seems different from Jan-March is the tendency for the market to act as if a lot of the bad news is already priced in.  I'm beginning to wonder if we'll get an upward bounce on almost any substantial positive news.  (maybe the dow is consolidating around 12,500 to 12,700 range)
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Posted April 08, 2008 (02:51PM)

It does appear that most of the bad news are priced into stocks and any positive news will give the market a bounce.  In another hand, I am skeptic that the DOW remains at 12.5K+ when the market is diving into recession with only 1500 points off the all time high set last year.  All in all, I think U.S. stocks are too expensive and the upside is limited at this level.  It maybe good to initate short positions when it gets close to 12,700.  I don't think we will be seeing dow 13,000+ for a while.   just my 2 cents.  
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EnglishTeach

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Posted April 09, 2008 (04:59AM)
Looks like we just broke below 5-day support for Dow and S&P.  Cashed in some puts (probably too soon, but they were expiring).  I'm thinking tomorrow's employment data will push the dow even further down.
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Posted April 09, 2008 (05:37PM)

That's what I am thinking.  I am holding some Ultrashort financial shares. Hope it pays off in the short term.  Sold some covered calls yesterday.  Tried to buy back the calls today while seeing the momentum moving downward throughout the day.    

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Posted April 10, 2008 (06:09AM)
It seems that a lot of the panic selling is over (for the time being).  BBBY and another retailer (forget right now) posted lower sales, but the mood still is lifting the market.  Maybe the expectation for the employment data was lower.  I think 350,000 unemployed is sort of a boundary between poor economy and growing economy.  But, still, overally 12,600 Dow is still within the last weeks trading range.
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Posted April 10, 2008 (04:12PM)
Good thing that I unloaded my ultra financial in the morning before it tanked while seeing the 12,500 DOW holding steady and the employment report was better than expected.  It confirmed again any positive news will move the market to the upside.  Initiated some ultrashort DOW 30 before the close.  Will sit on this position for a few days and see how things play out. 
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EnglishTeach

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Posted April 11, 2008 (04:08AM)
Should be in good shape w/ the short dow.  I sold a few DIA puts this morning.  Losing money on some DIA calls.
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Posted April 11, 2008 (10:23AM)
I guess big disappointment from GE and guildance lower throughout 2008 finally knocked some senses into people who think the worst is behind us.  If GE missed their estimated, many more misses will follow.  I think we may be in the turning point of this bear rally.  This time around the Fed are left with fewer ammunitions or if any to save the market when the market start tanking.       
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Posted April 14, 2008 (04:28AM)
Ugh, I sold my DIA puts way too early Friday.  One thing I did notice about Friday's selling: it seemed to a slow drip, not a panic type of selling.  Not sure what that means.  This week will be interesting to watch.
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Posted April 14, 2008 (05:15PM)

If I kept those ultrashort finanicals, It would've been a fabulous day.  Still holding those DXD positions.  There maybe some bums before it continue its downward trend.  well, for now I will just wait for those earnings to come out.   I hope there is no surprises.       
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Posted April 18, 2008 (07:14AM)
Bought a couple more DIA puts today (Friday).  I'm thinking a small pullback Monday on profit taking.  But overall it sure seems that the market is turning more and more bullish.
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Posted April 29, 2008 (03:03PM)

Haven't made too many big moves lately as the market was acting very irrational. However,  tomorrow will be a very interesting day.  Many think the market will sell off after the rate cut....Will this end the rally?  

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EnglishTeach

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Posted May 07, 2008 (09:25AM)
It bounced back nicely in the afternoon after the fed.  Sold some QQQQ puts today (Wed) during the selloff.  Picked up some QQQQ calls in the afternoon.  Just hoping to get a reflex move up on Thursday, 8th.
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Posted May 07, 2008 (01:08PM)
Took the opportunity to unload my all my SPY May 140 puts also in the very end of the trading session today.  Took a moderate size loss.  Need to work on my timing a bit, holding on to the trade too long, losing too much time premium.  I am looking for a reflex move tomorrow also so that I can initiate some June SPY puts.  Finally some sign of a tired rally.   Read an article on reuters, if this is a bear rally, it normally climb 12-13% before it reverse course and head downward.  We were there yesterday at 13%.  Is today's sell-off a coincidence?