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This group specializes in speculating the general market direction and then implementing trading strategies to optimize profitability. If you don't know what ETFs are or think they are too boring to trade, this group is not for you.

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MLtrader

Member since: Jan 08

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Age: 30's
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Hi everyone, i am new to the TK community.  My trading style is guessing the general market direction on whether it's going to be a up or a down day in the Dow Jones industrial, Nasdaq,  S&P 500, and etc.   The most common ETFs I trade upon are DIA, SPY, FXI, EZA, and SDS.  If you have the same interest in ETF trading, please join and post here your ideas and trades so we can all improve our trades and profitability. 
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MLtrader

Member since: Jan 08

5 Day -35.35%
15 Day -40.52%
1 Month -33.18%
3 Month -42.21%
6 Month -41.46%
1 Year -21.07%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 508
Trade Notes 2
Blog Posts 2

Age: 30's
MLtrader Brokerage Account
I have had closed my march puts today for both SPY and FXI and took a profit early in the morning when I see a huge gap down in the DOW and S & P.   A little disappointed at myself for selling out too early, didn't realize the market would go down that much in a single day.  Guess you can't have them all.  Anyone have any thought on what's coming next week?   
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Will Profit

Member since: Mar 07

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Unemployed pearl and sponge diver in south central Texas. This leaves me quite a bit of time for marathon poker games and binge drinking.
Age: 40's
Xerox (which by coincidence is my astrological sign),, The great Republic of Texas UNITED STATES
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I closed out my QQQQ puts early afternoon, after missing the the morning high price. Then the market dove in the afternoon. I could have made a much better profit. I also sold XLF puts for way to small a profit as they also rose in value late afternoon. When the QQQQ lost a dollar I bought into March calls because I believe we will see a bounce somewhere in this mess, but I believe we are heading down. For Monday I'm thinking OTM April puts on the QQQQ and XLF. If I had kept to my strategy of very CHEAP OTM calls/puts my profits wwould have been better. I think just about any April puts should pay off short term. Got any ideas?
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MLtrader

Member since: Jan 08

5 Day -35.35%
15 Day -40.52%
1 Month -33.18%
3 Month -42.21%
6 Month -41.46%
1 Year -21.07%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 508
Trade Notes 2
Blog Posts 2

Age: 30's
MLtrader Brokerage Account
I agree, we are to head down from here sooner or later.  Right now I am taking this a day at a time.  I have heard we maybe heading down more than 100 points to 1200 in the S & P.  However, i do think there is a good probability there maybe a bounce tomorrow after the DOW gave up more than 400 points from its high Wednesday.  The only good news I could think of is the anticipation of a rate cut in mid March.  Don't know if it's priced in.  Well.. i guess we'll learn more when the market open tomorrow.   I just look into XLF.  I haven't trade that I guess I will add that to my list of ETFs.   
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Will Profit

Member since: Mar 07

Trades Not Shared
Trade Notes 77
Blog Posts 229
Unemployed pearl and sponge diver in south central Texas. This leaves me quite a bit of time for marathon poker games and binge drinking.
Age: 40's
Xerox (which by coincidence is my astrological sign),, The great Republic of Texas UNITED STATES
Will Profit Brokerage Account

I'm counting on a bounce so I can unload these calls. Probably to late for another rate cut to provide much in the way of action. I reitirate: I strongly believe the XLF puts, ITM and OTM will be money in the bank for a while. One trader blogged about cheap OTM March GM puts @ $0.22-$0.24 I think it could be a good play. Maybey stay close to the money QQQQ tomorrow to see what happens, even though I like the cheap OTM. DISCLAIMER: This is in no way meant to represent investment advice. Writing about these trades does not mean I will make them.  Heck, It barely qualifies as educational.

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MLtrader

Member since: Jan 08

5 Day -35.35%
15 Day -40.52%
1 Month -33.18%
3 Month -42.21%
6 Month -41.46%
1 Year -21.07%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 508
Trade Notes 2
Blog Posts 2

Age: 30's
MLtrader Brokerage Account
good call on those XLF trades.  I just can't pull that trigger.  I am looking for a bounce back up before I load up those puts.  Don't know if it going to happen with all these bad news to digest.   any thoughts on the next few days? 
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Will Profit

Member since: Mar 07

Trades Not Shared
Trade Notes 77
Blog Posts 229
Unemployed pearl and sponge diver in south central Texas. This leaves me quite a bit of time for marathon poker games and binge drinking.
Age: 40's
Xerox (which by coincidence is my astrological sign),, The great Republic of Texas UNITED STATES
Will Profit Brokerage Account
I'm watching to see what employment # is tomorrow. If it's good it may be an opportunity to get into some more puts. I'm tempted to make my first buy in SPY, if the day looks like I can get in and out of it. ITM XLF puts (April or later) are money in the bank. I have found out that to get in and out quickly I need to buy the ITM puts.  It seems to take to long to get in and out of the less liquid ETFs because of the wide spreads. I thought the XLF might have to drop to $0 today in order to scalp a profit on my OTM puts. ITM QQQQ calls are tempting for a very quick trade. Any opinions/suggestions? 
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MLtrader

Member since: Jan 08

5 Day -35.35%
15 Day -40.52%
1 Month -33.18%
3 Month -42.21%
6 Month -41.46%
1 Year -21.07%
As of: 11/20/09
How is this calculated?
Trades 508
Trade Notes 2
Blog Posts 2

Age: 30's
MLtrader Brokerage Account
I like the SPY because the spread is small and extremely liquid.   If you guess the right direction you are certain to make an average of 20% with ITM call or put in and out in a day or two.  I agree April appears very likely to be a very bad month for stocks because earnings will be out and it's certain to be very bad.  One of the major things that's in the way is the rate cut which may provide an opportunity for people looking for a bounce.   What do you think?