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The purpose of this group is to discuss the future of the FAS stock. This group will share thoughts and ideas about where this stock is headed.

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FAS Forum > FAS on the rise?
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Justin_W_Jones

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Hi, I just started this group.  The FAS stock has been a favorite of mine as it has made me most of my profits.  What do you think this stock will do in the future.  My prediction are it will be over $9.50 by Wednesday.  I would appreciate your input.

-Justin W. Jones
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Justin_W_Jones

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Got the rise faster than I predicted.  Bought on Friday for 8.00 up to a closing of 9.92 on Monday. 
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dpom

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What are your current price predictions?  Do you ever buy the FAS options?

I am primarily an options trader, so if you share your price predictions I can help select which contracts are best to trade if you want that info.
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Justin_W_Jones

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I have not done any options trading.  My prediction is that FAS will go up in the short run, but much higher in the next 3 months. 
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dpom

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It looks like it has been trading on the short term range with Support at $6 and resistance around $10.  Do you think it will break resistance of $10 and go higher in the short term?
Long term resistance is at $11 and support at $2.5.  If it were to retrace and pullback, it could drop below $6 briefly.

So you don't use options to hedge your downside risk?  You could buy some straight put contracts, maybe one for every 100 shares you own.  A Jun $7 Put contract only costs $100, and seems like cheap insurance because it protects your underlying stock up to 100 shares.  Easy to buy one.

You can use options to:
- Protect your portfolio, in any direction
- Overnight gap protection, beyond the protective stop
- use as a cheap speculation strategy for directional moves
- income strategies (sell some out of the market Put or Call contracts off of your underlying and take in the contract premium as a credit to your account)

Basically options allow you to reduce risk/exposure and use significantly less capital to achieve the same objective.

Trading the same amount of capital in options vs. stocks, you should be able to increase your profits by 10 to 20% easily.  Something to look at.  I started playing with options back in 1997, and I don't trade any stocks anymore, sold all of them in Feb. 2008 and only trade option contracts.
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Justin_W_Jones

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Yes I think that in the short term FAS will break the $10 resistance.  I am looking to sell at $12.00 and then rebuy on a pullback.  Yes I want to get into options trading.  I am very new to stocks in general (a little over a month), but I am wanting to start dipping my toes into the options market.  What are your suggestions for a good place to start?

-Thanks Justin W. Jones

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MLtrader

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I don't know if you guys agree but I think FAS is very different from trading regular stocks. It has no regard to resistances or supports like regular stocks do.  FAS try to make 3X of XLF the underlyling ETF for financials.  If you were to trade FAS you should watch closely to XLF and look for its supports and resistances rather than looking at FAS's.  Also, FAS should not be a long term hold unless you anticipate financials is to have a run of winning streak.  You should get out when you think it's going to turn because when it turns it can be very drastic.  Therotically, if XLF is to lose 34% in one day, FAS will go to zero no matter what prices it was the previous day.  I think it's a day trader tool.  I haven't played it for awhile, but it is very exciting to watch.  A similar play is to buy a call option on the XLF.  just my 2 cents.        
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dpom

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Civil Engineer - Project Management
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I don't recommend trading the XLF, there are problems with volatility, volume, and getting out of your trade when you need to, at least that is my experience. 

Trading options is a bit harder to start than trading stocks, but in order to start, it is always best to try doing some of the free webinars on Trade King and OptionsXpress.  Both sites have excellent material, and the playbooks are a must.  OptionsXpress has an online guide that is called "Options Strategies", it is really hard to find on the site for some reason, try this link:

https://www.optionsxpress.com/educate/strategies/calendarspread.aspx

TradeKing has the Option "Playbook", I bought the hard copy.

Best to go ahead and get a free OptionsXpress account, they have good tools, so does TradeKing.  OptionsXpress has papertrading, so you can practice your trades without losing your butt.

Prior to May 30th, go ahead and get a Think or Swim account funded, after that, TD Ameritrade takes over and the existing account holders will be "grandfathered" in and keep the existing commission structure.

Think or Swim has a trading platform that you use for free, and it is not as simple and intuitive to use as the web based trading at OptionsXpress or TradeKing, but it makes it much easier and faster to do what you need to do for complex options strategies.

Start with basic Puts and Calls first, then go to Spreads, and up the chain.

On TradersLibrary.com you can buy for like $150 a Larry McMillan starter set of training manual.  It covers all of the basics and is a good reference.

If you want, you can run your suggested trades by me to help you.

For instance, if you think FAS is going to go from $9 to $12 in two weeks, you would want to try trading a Bull Call Spread on the next month's contract expirations.

For example, if it is May for this scenario.
Buy the FAS June $10 strike for $1.50 per contract (representing 100 shares of stock), and sell the FAS June $12.50 Strike for a credit of $0.50 per contract.

Your total risk is $1.00.  Your max profit is when the price of the FAS underlying reaches $12.50, and you can't make anything above that due to the contracts you sold at $12.50, but you will have safely made your return.

Now this is a very simplistic example, there are many more factors behind the scenes such as volatility and other Greeks, but the hardest part about option training is:
1. Experience
2. Knowing which month to trade in
3. Knowing what strike price
4. Knowing what options strategy to trade for the maximum profit with the lowest risk.


You can email me for more info and tips, here is my email:
DeltaPapaOscarMike at yahoo.com (military coded for spam robots, first capitalized letter)
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Justin_W_Jones

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Thanks I will be doing some research on options and I will probably be looking to make some plays maybe later in the month.  I'll run it by you so you can let me know what you think.  I will probably start small, so i don't lose my butt before I know what I am doing. 
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dpom

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exactly, start small first.  try picking a stock you like and buy a leap.  buy old school, today ford dropped a bunch and it was lower than it has been, so I bought some cheap leaps on it.  good rainy day fund@