Can someone smarter than me tell me why I SHOULDN'T own PEGA (Pegasystems)

Posted by cpholley on May 09, 2008 (03:59AM)

Hey there, so I'm obviously new to the market, but have been having an incredible time on this site learning, and especially cruising these message boards and blogs, trying to glean what information I could on any topic, industry, strategy, lingo, etc. It's been a terrific experience in just a few short months.

I work in the IT industry as a technical recruiter, and have the distinct advantage of speaking with everyday joes like you and I, who happen to know a whole lot about Technology, but most importantly, have strong opinions on the industries they work in, the companies they work for, and the tools they use. My first trade here was a purchase of PegaSystems (PEGA). In my mind, and the mind of many others, Pega is THE BEST Business Process Management (BPM) tool in the market today. To dumb it down briefly, Pega puts the power in the hands of non-techies in an organization, and can deploy full-scale applications a lot faster. And as a recruiter, I see the growing demand for these resources (ppl who know Pega) every single day. 

Because I believed in the product , and I believe in a lot of the horses in the market that Pega has hitched their saddle to, I think the company is in a great position to continue to grow and improve as a company. I've even visited with users in every industry who fully believe that Pega (because of its SmartBPM Suite) will change the world of IT. They are definitely drinking the Kool-aid. But Pega has seen some good growth recently. Total revenue for the first quarter was $48.5 Million, an increase of 29% compared to first quarter 2007.

My issue is, I see some questionable fundamentals, and truthfully, as a beginner, can't read/understand much of the fundamentals that are plagueing this company. I read that its a SELL most everywhere I turn, including MarketGrader here on TK. Also, Pega's P/E is 54!

So I turn to you, good folks of TK. Can anyone with a sound understanding of the fundamental analysis of this company explain why I should be worried? I should also note, I don't have a big position here, but that doesn't mean I don't wanna make money! ;)

Any insight is greatly appreciated, and thanks for taking the time to read this!

Casey

Posted by lifeisgrand on May 21, 2008 (01:06PM)

I think there's 3 things that drive a price - fundamental, technicals, and emotion.   You got the emotion for this stock already.  I won't take the time to do a fundamental analysis, hope you don't mind.   You can pick that up in a book and knock it out pretty simply.   Its a skill we all need to learn.   But technically only takes a minute.   Its not in a hot sector, it passed its MACD a month ago, its volume is low, it has natural resistance at 13 or so based on 52 week data.   It had a bull flag, and that probably means a 25/75 chance of it going up or down more rapidly now for the next week or so.   Its in a narrow range from 11.5 to 12.5 and heading down slightly past week or so.    If it hit 11.5 I'd sell and be happy with what you made.   If it hits 12.5 it might carry up to 13 before hitting resistance.   At 13.10 it will go up nicely, but its unlikely to reach that level based upon recent history.   Just my two cents.  

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