Forum > Are the Dow Dividend Strategies obsolete?
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underground.

Member since: Jun 08

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Hey,

 I'm new to investing, and I've recently just finished reading Kelly's "Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing," and I am now onto Malkiel's "Random Walk Down Wall Street." In Kelly's book, he mentions the dow dividend strategy, which I took the time to look into. Apparently it has been returning around 11-12% per year for the past 25 years, a time period in which the S&P returned about 7.5% annually.

However, it's hard to believe that in today's market this strategy will still work. Depending on which variation one uses, implementing this today would result in the buying of companies such as GM and Bank of America, two companies known to be in some trouble at this time.

 So what's the deal? Is this whole strategy a hoax or does it still work today?

 Thanks

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RetireOnTime

Member since: Dec 07

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Today's market isn't tomorrow's.  I think high quality dividend payers are a great investment play, but I also think it works best for a value investing style.  For example, we all know Coke isn't going under even if they're near a 52 week low - they aren't even bound by their US revenues.  If you have an 18+ month horizon, why not by them cheap (even dollar-cost average down) and get a decent dividend to go along with the future growth of the stock?
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OldFart

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Sounds like the Dogs of the Dow, here is the link - http://www.dogsofthedow.com/
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uiucfinance

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Sounds exactly like the Dogs of the Dow.  Dividend yields are pretty conservative to where they have been in the past, some point to this as an indication of the stock market being overvalued.  Anytime anything is backtested becareful you run into data mining issues, as in you are finding correlation instead of causation.  If you run a set of data through enough screens you are bound to find some patterns, some that will continue in the future, and others that are flukes.

 Retireontime makes a good point, I am a big fan of dividends.  Why do, (or SHOULD) companies pay dividends?  Because the return on the cash when they invest is less than their cost of capital, i.e. they are essentially investing at a negative rate.  So you can look at it two ways, a company that doesn't pay dividends has great growth prospects, and the return on the cash they invest is going to be net positive.  OR The company has ignorant or worse yet, greedy management, that is going to chase returns to try to boost their stock price so they can kick in their options.  

 

Becareful with the Random Walk Down Wallstreet.  It was required reading in some of my finance classes, and as such I never read it.  However, from what I hear it pitches the idea of efficient markets.  If the current market has proved anything, it is the market is inefficient.  People act on imperfect knowledge and many times, act on emotion.  Some of the best advice the grandmaster has ever said "the stock market in the short run is a voting machine in the long run it is a scale".  Eventually things come back to reality.

 Hopefully this helps  and wasn't too lengthy.