There are conflicting signals on the Daily Chart.
The Weekly chart is mostly Bullish and the Vix is Bullish.
I think that the Dow will retest the 10119 Level.
If successful, then will challenge the 10310 Level.
Happy Trading
Forum > A Weekly Look at the Dow -- November Edition
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Posted November 07, 2009 (06:38AM)
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Posted November 07, 2009 (08:36AM)
Thank you for your charts.... I think the charts are otterish… Playfully deceptive... But long term hope would be bullish with a bearish attitude until good news starts coming in....
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Posted November 07, 2009 (05:40PM)
Once again, much appreciation for the charts and I like doing a thread per month, although I guess we could just read the last page on a really long thread but we might miss a chart or two if we have to go to the last page on a continuous post. November edition, great! The so-called 'contrarian bulls' would agree with you and I guess I'll keep in as it will probably do a monthly little stair-step upwards with maybe a monthly 5 percent pullback like the last three months. 'course it can't keep going up and up and probably next year will have a much larger 'correction' at some point. Hopefully, we'll all have good profits by then and can weather whatever the market throws at us.
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Posted November 08, 2009 (07:04AM)
Otter, I like your description, playfully deceptive. Bull markets can be this way. It seems to me that this rally is based not on economics - where we have the jobless rate at 10.2 %. But rather looks to be a reflection of monetary policy, which hasn't changed as far as I can tell. The market moved up on bad news on Friday. The bears failed to capitalize on this bad news, which suggest to me that we are headed higher. The Banks have not yet completed their swing low. Once they do, I expect the markets to go higher.  Again, thanks for the encouragement. May We all Make more $$$ Faster. |
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Posted November 08, 2009 (06:44PM)
From the candlestick-technical perspective, doesn't the "shooting star" seen for the last trading day indicate at least a moderately bearish move over the next few days?
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Posted November 09, 2009 (01:45PM)
I took a look at your website and favorited it, good info on there!
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Posted November 09, 2009 (09:47PM)
PRD - I am glad that you found some value with my site. joederp, You are right about a "shooting star" possibly indicating a bearish sentiment in the short term. (Pardon me for not replying to this earlier) It seems that there are several factors at work. 1) G-20 nations indicated that government programs to boost world economies would continue. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/nov2009/pi2009119_616603.htm 2) Dow
jumps 204 to high for year as dollar slumps
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-jumps-204-to-high-for-apf-2566762760.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode= 3) The Banks finally joined the party  Happy Trading |
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Posted November 15, 2009 (07:28AM)
   Happy Trading |
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Posted November 15, 2009 (12:11PM)
Likesmoney, I'd made a comment before regarding the A/D, I hope you didn't feel it was a critical observation, but more a question of technique. My understanding of the A/D is that when it fails to rise or fall as sharply as the equity or index it follows it could mean a reversal, it isn't like the RSI in that sense. I'm not a great fan of indicators in general, but the above chart shows the A/D had risen less proportionately this time (the yellow line) than the last rise of the index....is there a differing school of thinking on the A/D? Also, (and now I'm a pain in the keyster...I know) the support levels of each of the past consecutive dips has fallen below the height of the last high, if history continues to repeat, the theoretical support for the next dip would likely be below the last high of 10,119.....no? |
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Posted November 15, 2009 (07:20PM)
Incubus, I am sorry if I over looked your question, and I don't mind questions of technique (critical or otherwise). What I like about the A/D line is that it is a Volume Indicator, where I believe that "price follows Volume" and shows how money is flowing in or out of a stock. RSI - the Relative Strength Indicator shows how strongly a stock is moving in its current direction. So getting to your observation regarding the A/D rising less proportionately this time speaks to the amount of money flowing in. Now getting to the support levels, I also have my doubts as to how strong a support level 10119 will be. You are certainly right about the dips falling below the recent high. But it is the first level of support coming off the recent high. If the pattern that has unfolded over the last 10 weeks continues, I expect a pull back to the lower trend line on the Weekly chart -- around 9800 -- and after looking at it tonight probably closer to 9860. Thanks for your interest and questions. |
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Posted November 15, 2009 (08:03PM)
Actually, I just noticed I missed your comment on the A/D for the chart I reposted "A break above resistance would be very bullish".
I mistook your interpretation that the current A/D position was bullish, which would be odd with the index already moving downward while it hasn't spiked as high as the last. Thank you for posting your thoughts and taking the time to draw up the charts. |
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Posted November 15, 2009 (11:24PM)
LM, I agree that this index has been on a pattern since 8/17…
The tops seem to come in three to four equal values, then rolls over. The other pattern I see is a low to hi range of about a 6 ½ to 8 1/3 percentage move to the upside, then it give that back, about 70 percent on avg. Giving the cycle about a 1 ½ to 3 percent move up to the next higher low. |
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Posted November 21, 2009 (07:10AM)
    Happy Trading |
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