|
|
Posted November 05, 2009 (10:44PM)
It looks to be about a 6 percent correction (which is about the average correction in this run up from March's lows) that we seem to be coming out of. Made money off inverse etfs last week but probably not this week.. (Friday remains to be seen). Many stocks took a much higher percentage of a beating but now seem to be heading back up. Always exceptions of course.
But one never knows for sure... but this looks like another speed bump like the two month by month's before. What do you all seel? LikesMoney? |
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (01:39PM)
BUMP... come on, Cats got your tongues? Crystal balls accepted but Not tea bags! I will admit I was once again mystified at the (usual) market's reaction to increased unemployment figures. But remember in previous recessions, then not being a market player, did note the insensitivity of the market towards the (wo)man on the street. I should have noted that and sold all inverse etfs yesterday, wierd how both them and emerging markets (EDC) were going up the same day. So how's Monday going to go?
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (02:27PM)
I'm not much of a technician when it comes to markets...
But in looking at spy (s&p etf), it looks like if it comes up a point or two higher it will have mirrored the initial "shoulder" in the "developing head and shoulder" structure, which would be bearish... also volume is very low today, I know volume is usually lower on Friday's, but we aren't even at half of normal volume yet. I'm thinking it has to go lower on monday. If it makes a jump on higher volume on monday then I think I'd be bullish. But If I had to make a prediction, I'd say lower on monday. I wonder how the holiday wednesday will effect markets? even though markets are open, the banks and bonds will be closed. Hmm... I really don't have expertise in technicals, just having a go at it. Its fun! |
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (02:29PM)
Wait a minute, just noticed the lows of this week were above the lows of the last dip, and maybe the highs will go higher?
haha, I'm with ya, can't wait for those charts to come out. I gotta read some books on technicals. Would be a nifty skill to have. |
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (02:54PM)
Guys, read this, I just posted it on another thread, thanks to OF for originally posting it...so fart it's working out pretty well.
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (02:57PM)
Too funny "so fart", no pun intended, real typo there.
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (03:03PM)
Wow! Great read. Makes a lot of sense!
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (03:23PM)
Yeah, just remember to get out by years end.
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (03:54PM)
I am thinking (well actually I have decided) to put a pairs trade - long SPY, short IWM in equal $ amount. Just need to free some margin .... :-)
|
|
Posted November 06, 2009 (04:57PM)
I’ve been running back and forth to the hospital for
my brother, surgery was successful, thanks for asking, but I did want to add
something about a current ‘mover’.
When I came back from Europe I brought some UUP, figuring that $1.50 to
a Euro was a top. It has been
announced that there will be no new shares issued for the short run since there
seems to be a rush recently to short the dollar. Instead of these shares trading at par to the exchange rate,
they are trading at a premium, which means they have gain about 5% in the last
week. Don’t rush in to play this,
since when additional shares are issued the premium will disappear. I toyed with selling, but I have been
mentally preoccupied to think it through, but I believe that the dollar will
recover against the Euro as our economy recovers. There may be a play in selling now and buying back at the
end of the year.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 07, 2009 (12:08AM)
SP, good to hear brother made it through surgery, hope all is well. Please keep us updated. Maybe start a thread about options strategy as a ploy just to post the updates in one place and educate at the same time.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 09, 2009 (01:21PM)
So, we're up 150 points today, as of now. Anyone know why?
In the face of the new 10.2% unemployment, highest in 26 years, I would say the market's reaction doesn't make much sense. I'm going to bet on a decline from here. |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 09, 2009 (01:35PM)
G20 saying that global stimulus won't end is what CNBC is saying the reason is.
|
|
Posted November 09, 2009 (08:30PM)
I think it’s the bill President Obama signed on Friday. But it seems a little soon unless there was a lot of homework over the weekend. |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 09, 2009 (10:55PM)
I just ran a comparison of DSC (a small cap ETF index) and ELR ( a large cap index) for 2005-2009 for the months of December and January on Google Finance's chart. The effect, if it existed, was too negligible for me to observe. 2005-06 had perhaps the most pronounced effect from December to January with DSC outgaining ELR 6 to 3% in January while losing 1.5 to 1.0 in December. The effect appeared to be inverse in 06-07 and was not perceptible to me in 07-08. Just my amateur hackery, but I'm not inclined to try this out with much at stake. Interesting idea though. |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 09, 2009 (11:48PM)
Jwales, from mid October through now, it's been working exceptionally well, in '07 & '08 it worked, in '06 if you'd made the purchases at the start of November, you have had a little nail biting, but by the years end you were up 2%, if you'd reversed the strategy as the article suggests you were up again by 4% by February, the two ETF's you used only go back to December '05 where the strategy yielded 7% if you'd held on through April.
Hopefully you read the article, it discusses annual buying/selling patterns for large funds, more risk at the start of the year with a flight to quality at the end of the year. It might not get you rich in a month, but if you're expecting 10% gains every month, you're asking for trouble. |
|
Posted November 10, 2009 (09:40AM)
I am of the opinion that if we can manage to close above 1100 SPX, the market will skyrocket on an early year end rally. If we stall at 1100 for too long it will shape up as aas double top which would be bearish and we could take another trip to 1040 or so.
The uptrend channel is still intact as we made another higher low during this last correction. The 1100 is an important technical level as it lines up with the downtrend line from the 2007 highs. Busting through with a close above 1100 would be huge. . ![]() |
|
Posted November 10, 2009 (09:50AM)
I still don't understand how this market can keep going higher with unemployment at 10.2 percent,
but really higher then that when you factor in all unemployed people. Someday reallity has to set in and that will drive the market lower. I know one thing, I just don't understand this stupid stock market. |
|
Posted November 10, 2009 (10:27AM)
Unlucky re: your remarks. I think that you may be mistaking the market for the
economy; they are not one and the
same. Some people think that the
market is a reflection of the future economy. I think that it is better to view it as the reflection of
consensus of the investing public expectations of the future economy. But one important thing to remember,
just because the expectations are sometimes wrong, that doesn’t make them
stupid. What would make them
stupid is coming to the conclusion for no good reason; however, it is as possible to reach the
wrong conclusion for very good reasons.
I think Abe Lincoln had something to say about that.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted November 10, 2009 (12:45PM)
Unlucky,
I agree with your statement regarding the overall economy and that "someday reality has to set in". For sure it will. But as Shap says above the market and economy are not necessarily tied at the hip. The current market is looking through a very narrow window where the dollar is depressed and companies are able to post decent earnings. The path of least resistance is higher. The timing is also ripe for a rally as we near year end and Goldman Sacks and the like want to cut those big bonus checks! Not much downside till year end in my opinion with just maybe another 5% swoon but if we gather just a little steam above 1100, we are going much higher. After the New Years all bets are off and I would be much less bullish. my 2 cents anyway! |
|
You must Log In to post to this forum.
|