Forum > Activision - ATVI
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afranco158

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Activision has been posting low earnings and it's stock has dipped in the past couple months, but on November 10, all of that will change.  Activision will be releasing one of the most anticipated games, Call of Duty:  Modern Warfare 2, and it's stock might double in the coming months. 

When Activision released Call of Duty:  Modern Warfare a couple of years ago, their stock boomed.  Expect another dramatic increase in the coming months.  This game might break records with it's huge fan base worldwide. 

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OldFart

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The market makers think the move after the release will be around 10% or $1.00
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Owl

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Since everybody already knows the game is going to be released, wouldn't it already be priced in?
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TampaJake

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I don't think so Owl, the price on ATVI has been steadily dropping over the last few days. It didn't move at all last week on the day we were up 200 points. I know because, I had bought a Jan put on it the day before and couldn't believe I didn't get burned that day. I am wondering if there may be other problems at Activision.

A similar situation is about to happen with Verizon this week when they release the Droid which according to their ads is suppose to be serious competition for the iPhone. It is supposed to hit the stores Nov 6th. Whether any of that news is priced in is hard to say, but we saw what happened to Apple stock when the new iPhone became available.

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YoungPunk

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I've been studying ATVI since august. Its a top 3 interest stock for me.

It will not double within the year. a reasonable cap would be 17 dollars based on the 2007 value which not many companies have beat. I'd say 14-15 is a more conservative goal.

Its recent decline was because of older investors who don't understand the video game market: ATVI released "DJ hero" a spin off guitar hero which they also own. DJ hero was never anticipated to be a hit by any real gamer, it was just supposed to be a sucker buy playing off the dieing hype of guitar hero. Earnings reports from DJ hero created a silly negative hype. Right now is an optimal buying time on the long. Sadly I have better shorts at the moment.

Yes ATVI has COD coming out, a big seller for sure.

Also ATVI has Starcraft II coming out somtime in 2010. Starcraft 1 sold 11 million copies and is a top 10 seller of all time. SCI is what made Blizzard the powerhouse it is today. Its a matter of pride to the board of directors that the sequel be nothing less. The beta testers have already tested SC II and say its in line with the first one in quality. I've watched videos and I'd say i'm as confident in SCII as i was in windows 7. take that for what you think its worth.

SCII release date is unnanounced right now. The game is fully finished, but they encountered a problem with the multiplayer servers and are currently redoing that issue. When the release date comes out I'm sure it will filter through the blizzard forums first, before it gets google news. I plan on waiting till the SC II release date is known. Its not a bad thing to go in now, but your funds might be more useful in the meantime somewhere else. Its true value right now is about 12 dollars a share. Even without the releases, I think it'll float back that way soon.

Possible warnings: from what I've gathered, it appears the video game market is highly speculative investing. If the market crumples, video game companies are one of the first to be dumped.

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YoungPunk

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TJ - I haven't heard about the droid. I'll pet out some feelers with some nerd friends see what the word is.
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russianguy131518

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ATVI is a weak stock to invest in, try GME it has strong earnings and great return on investment.
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PRDinvestments

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I wonder how the fact that the game was leaked already on the internet affects things?
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YoungPunk

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which game was leaded? I know SCII is available through heavily monitored beta testing, but that a proven technique to build hype once you already know the software is good quality.
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Veneratio

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I invested in ATVI pre-March lows and it was a very safe stock in the increasingly volatile market. That being said, as soon as I felt comfortable moving into riskier assets I ditched it. It's a dud my friend. Just look at it's movement over the past 8 months, it gives me a migraine. They do have perhaps, thee most talent in the industry but their valuation with nearly 8 billion(give or take?) in goodwill is ridiculous. I was disappointed to see them sit on their cash earlier this year instead of putting it to use as well.
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YoungPunk

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Ven- agreed at the moment, its a mild longterm investment and a mild shorterm investment, you can make a profit of either right this moment, but theres better options elsewhere.

Several of there key products release dates right now have been delayed for over a year, so the anticipation has become more of a stagnant. I think there will be a steady rise with the market, with a couple larger bumps as release dates finally come out and are formalized. I'll be looking for short term investment oppurtunies around those dates, but won't count on them.

Pretty sure Goldman Sachs bought spring stock in this company, waited to add it to their buy list till august, then sold off and wrote off their product late august, sept.

Another influential news peace, I remember a few weeks ago hearing something about a japanese laws making their investment in foreign videogame companies illegal. I think it was a safety control for their young professionals. Not sure what the status on that is, it was just a short clip off google news.