Hope you bought CAGC, up over 10% since. Holid until earnings.buynhold said:
I may have to do that.Veneratio said: Should have stuck with my YRCW short. I got hit with a short-squeeze my first round, hung onto it for dear life through a 75% gain, and then finally sold when it dropped back down for a modest gain of 15%. I absolutely hated the feeling of getting margin calls so I stayed away from it. Bad move.
CAGC is still undervalued. They revised earnings three weeks ago on the upside, shot up 40%, and now their back to levels before the announcement(granted, slight dilution). Completely irrational imo, take advantage of it.
I held YRCW for a few hours--bought before close, set a limit, and it triggered the next day for a 27% gain. Too bad it was only a small amt.
I don't short stocks anymore--I have found that I get so antsy about margin calls with shorts that it's not worth the stress. Instead, I sell call spreads. Kind of hard to do with a low-value stock like YRCW, though.
Forum > Ven's Stock Pick #2
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Posted November 09, 2009 (09:52AM)
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Posted November 09, 2009 (09:57AM)
Geez Veneratio, up 30% plus in one month, way to go!
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Posted November 09, 2009 (10:31AM)
Attention: Owl & other ALIF holders
I just sold half my ALIF holdings at $1.40. Why? One, because my capital was overextended, and I wanted to reduce my margin. Two, I am having trouble justifying the run-up post-3M investment. It doens't make sense that ALIF would sacrifice 11% equity for $1, pre-earnings, if they were confident they could wait until after earnings and demand a much higher price. Obviously 3M is confident in ALIFs future, as am I, but I feel the 60% runup since my original BUY at .88 is irrational. Note, however, that tax implications of selling most likely vary significantly between us. Good |
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Posted November 09, 2009 (10:54AM)
Aye, Aye, Well done Captain!
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Posted November 09, 2009 (01:16PM)
Thanks for the update, V. Yes, a 60% rise seems irrational; yet that doesn't mean it won't continue. Since I'm not sure what to do, I'll do nothing. We'll see pretty soon.
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Posted November 09, 2009 (03:12PM)
I did, thanks. I'm up about 8.5% on it so far. I haven't (and likely won't for now) bought any ALIF, unfortunately! Go CAGC! |
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Posted November 09, 2009 (04:26PM)
I do think it will continue it's rise over the long-term, but the short term just doesn't make sense. Why would ALIF shop around a private placement at $1 if they knew their earnings would demand a price of at least $1.25+ ... I was looking for strong earnings but I'm not so sure they'll justify a 60% + run-up, hence my selling half my shares. On the other hand, it is possible 3M demanded a price no greater than a $1 in return for funds that would otherwise be unattainable by ALIF. Liquidity is scarce right now, especially for small companies with a short history, volatile earnings, and little capital... Earnings will tell us a lot, and I will likely buy back in if their A/R collections significantly improve(albeit at a higher, perhaps much higher, price). Good luck guys! |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (09:24AM)
As predicted, stunnar earnings results:
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=PR&date=20091110&id=10686588 Should have let my shares ride, I guess. Still going to be a great day though! Cheers to fellow ALIF holders :D! |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (09:42AM)
Praying that my $1.33 limit order hits! It's insane this stock isn't over $1.50. Q3, fully diluted, EPS of .07 give it a yearly PE of 4.8. Not only that, the company specifically stated:
"Management does not expect any further significant additional allowances for doubtful accounts for the remainder of the year 2009." Tremendous opportunity lies within the difference between perception and reality. Good luck! |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (10:50AM)
Yeah, I saw that. Great growth, highest ever income, and yet it's down to 1.25 as of this writing. What gives? I mean, what were people expecting, such that they're now disappointed -- 12 million in revenues?
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Posted November 10, 2009 (11:26AM)
Whatever's goin on, I sold 3,000 shares yesterday at $1.39, & picked up another 4,400 shares today at $1.25...5,600 shares in total. I'm with ya, coach.
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Posted November 10, 2009 (02:40PM)
Broke one of my cardinal rules... always let the momentum play out. I bought right into it and I have paid the price! As for the the significant drop, I see two underlying causes. One, buy the hype, sell the news. People who were only in this for earnings got ancy after the initial 5% drop and sold into it. Two, ALIF failed to tame their A/R write-offs which is still a cause of concern for investors. However, that being said... They did explicitly state they do not foresee having to write-off any further accounts in Q4. Taking their word for it, if they continue to grow their top line, their bottom line is poised to explode Q4. I have to finish up some HW now but I'll go over the 10Q in greater detail and run a few calculations. For those who are looking for a good entry point into ALIF... Start your DD now! |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (05:04PM)
I don't know if ALIF is a decent company or stock investment. I don't know if Veneratio really believes in this story or not. What I do know is that an .88 stock is as speculative as they come and that Ven is talking his own book. Something to consider before your buying this stock makes someone else money.
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Posted November 10, 2009 (06:58PM)
Ven really believes in this story. Otherwise, he wouldn't be buying it, would he?
Of course, we don't buy solely because Ven says so. The company's financial statements look good; they have shown impressive growth and are poised for more, and their P/E is very low based on the last 12 months. I don't think this is the most speculative thing you could find. (FNM is much more speculative.) It is very volatile, but I distinguish volatility from risk: I don't think it is very high risk, because I see risk in terms of the chance that the stock might actually be overpriced. It is very unlikely that it is overpriced. |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (07:19PM)
In Ven's defense, he has detailed the + and -'s of this play if the complete thread is read. And he has turned in solid results and good suggestions. IMO |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (09:55PM)
You can type Veneratio into the search box to bring up his posts. He doesn’t pump stocks and is coldly honest. I don’t think the price of a stock has much to do with potential, if you invest a thousand dollars in a twenty cent stock or a twenty dollar stock, a 100% gain is still a thousand dollars. |
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Posted November 10, 2009 (11:47PM)
Check out PIHN, now that's speculative... |
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Posted November 11, 2009 (08:35AM)
Dollyllama, Ven's the real deal. I didn't go w/ his trade as there are others out there just as good but his stats are excellent. Now I am scratching my head as usual about so many Leaders on the leaderbd. ? You're down 90+ for the year but up 200 plus for the month. How does that work out? I am still suspecting that the majority of Leader stats are anomalies not worth thinking about. And Owl's suggestion that many speculators are investing in mainly govt. supported nearly bankrupt financial institutions (I am guilty too) is spot-on and at least ALIF is producing a product, not debt.
One reason I didn't jump on this profit monster is that I didn't care for the games they make that I saw on my Iphone. But di'f strokes fer di'f folks, eh man? I've never gone into such depth of research that Ven did on this one and I've not come close to his profit stats so it shows his 'dd' is excellent. But I might show my friend from Peru the soccer game that ALIF makes and that might just make him want to get a iTouch or phone too. (hmm, AAPL stocks are going up again pronto too..) |
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Posted November 11, 2009 (10:54AM)
I haven't seen you around the forums much, so you probably haven't seen many of my former posts. I like what you are doing. You have every right to question my intentions, and I applaud you for it. To confront your concerns: First, never judge the "risk" of a stock simply by its price. Price is meaningless. ALIF could easily do a 10-1 reverse split and be trading over $10 tomorrow. Does this make it any more or less speculative? Absolutely not. Second, it would be naive to think my recommendation would have any material effect on ALIF's price. I am a small-time investor, posting in a small-time community. Third, and most importantly, I continue to own all stocks(only 2 so far) I have supported on these forums. My portfolio is public and all users can see exactly what I buy/sell and when I buy/sell it. Compete transparency. Updates on ALIF: I took a closer look at their 10Q and it is clear why investors were spooked. ALIF burned through a significant amount of cash and A/Rs account for an increasingly large proportion of their current assets. Key takeaways from their 10Q that justify, for me, maintaining my position(in order of importance): Management does not expect any further significant additional allowances for doubtful accounts for the remainder of the year 2009.If their top line continues to grow, or even stagnate, Q4 earnings will explode if they don't write off further A/Rs. In October 2009 the 3M Company has chosen us for a strategic investment and as a new cooperation partner in the mobile space. The investment and the alliance agreement with 3M provide a strong, global business opportunity for us. The cooperation will allow us to create innovative business and lifestyle applications for one of the leading innovators in the business world.It's more than an investment, it's a partnership. 3M undoubtedly has the resources to help expand ALIF's business as well as implement more efficient methods of collecting ARs. Despite the large amount of games available on the Apple App Store, 20 (or 95%) of our games have climbed up to the Top 100 most downloaded rank or higher; 17 games have been ranked in the Top 50; 15 in the Top 10 downloads; and 11 games have achieved Top 5 or higher. The best games have reached Top 10 download rankings in 56 countries, i.e. 73% of all countries in which the iPhone is officially sold. 8 of our games have even hit rank 1 in 23 countries.Proven quality. If they continue to deliver, demand will follow suit. "In September 2009, we announced our strategic decision to expand our non-gaming related mobile activities through the launch of our first healthcare application for the iPhone, an intelligent mobile diabetes monitoring system. The application is tentatively scheduled for release in the fourth quarter of 2009." Who knows, maybe ALIF could become a material player in the modernization of health-care. It's a niche market that is obviously in tremendous demand and ALIF is positioning themselves to capitalize on it. Carpe Diem, - Ven |
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Posted November 12, 2009 (10:02AM)
Well, unless something bigger than small-time sell-offs is going on, appears that there's a good entry point into this one right now...
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