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Posted September 24, 2009 (12:13PM)
If you have been selling some covered calls as the
market rose, today is a good day to look to buy them back cheap. E.g., sold CYQJX on 9/10 @ 1.04 bought
back this morning @ .64 I
usually look for even a larger gain after two weeks (perhaps 50-60%) but the
option has another month to run and CSCO is too volatile to wait and see it
move against me.
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Posted September 24, 2009 (07:06PM)
Looks like not many call sellers, sp. I did nothing today, most of my CC-like positions are with naked puts. Just a few true CC with shares like MO which I am holding
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Posted September 24, 2009 (08:53PM)
I’m kind of curious OF, you say you are all naked puts and I’m all in CC’s. I take it that you like I would prefer to have a mix, if possible. For the last month, I haven’t been able to sell a naked put although I’ve carried offers in both TEVA, AOB and KFT. In fact, except for a SEP 40p in JPM sold on 8/28, I haven’t sold a put since 7/8 when I sold a GE Aug 12 (I know I should have just bought some more outright.) Sometimes I feel like a mountebank with a table set up in the square and you can show the rubes how the game is played and they still fall for it, over and over. Anyway, any thoughts on how are portfolios could have gotten to these two extremes. |
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Posted September 24, 2009 (09:32PM)
You mentioned KFT - I sold puts just after they announced the Cadbury bid and the 5% drop that day, thought it was a little overdone. JNJ may be a similar situation tomorrow, they are recalling lots of children's Tylenol tonight
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Posted September 25, 2009 (12:07PM)
Selling covered calls and/or bull spreads are two of my major strategies. CC's can be a little painful if the stock is rising quickly so one has to be pretty nimble about when to roll up, buy back, or simply let them ride all the way to expry, especially when they are close to the strike. FWIW I've rolled my LVS covers many times, but have insisted on keeping them through Sept, as I've been expecting a dramatic pullback. That said, like yourself I bot them back yesterday (could have made a bit more if I had waited another hour or so) but still I was looking at the biggest gain I'd seen to date so decided to lock it in above my target, which it did eventually hit. (sold @1.18, bot back @ .45. On the other hand for the better, I resisted the impulse to buy after the first waves of selling & held out till the third drop. The stock is up today (9/25) so for the moment I'm happy about that particular trade but you know it ain't over till its over. The meters still running and hindsight has a funny way of incubating re-evaluations.
Anyhow its always interesting to see how others play things. Spence Oh Rama |
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Posted September 25, 2009 (12:58PM)
Spence, As of this moment I’ve traded 99 different options this year, I don’t have the time , energy or inclination to worry about what ‘coulda, woulda, shoulda’. This morning a bought back JPM Oct. 47’s for .62 that I sold on the 16th for 1.01. As I recorded the trade I saw that the price had dropped even lower. So what. I made my return. This was the seventh JPM option that I have traded this year around the same underlying position. Who knows how many more I’ll do before I get exercised, but the premiums I have cleared represent a 16% gain on the underlying (not counting the cap. gain for the year.) Most of us have at best cloudy crystal balls. I dropped mine a few years back and never bothered to get it fixed. Focus on your goals and not what might have been and you’ll need less antacids. Good luck. |
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Posted September 26, 2009 (12:02PM)
Hi sp
thanks for the post, Actually made me laugh because your post to me is somewhat akin to a message I gave to someone else yesterday. Sorry if I gave the impression of stressing. What I was trying to say was a little bit the opposite, which is that I made a similar trade yesterday that looks good today, but its really too soon to make a verdict. Like most trades it could have been possible to squeeze a few more dollars or it could have been a lot worse. All qualitative judgments are locked into the moment but I can't count the number of trades that in hindsight reversed to their opposite later for better or worse. i.e. you can't stress too much cause you never can tell. Not so very long ago I bought Bear-Sterns around 100 with the idea of making it a long term hold but eventually sold around 120 on hearing whiffs of investigations for some minor impropriety. Didn't look so good later as it soared but seeing as how it eventually closed for a dime a share, I guess it turned out pretty darn well. That said as things unfold I try to evaluate every trade I make in terms of my timing, strategy and rational for action or inaction. As you know all too well options are very volatile. Balance and perspective are essential but it's also my job to keep improving my performance, avoid repeated mistakes and lessen the effect of false signals, shallow thinking and the pitfalls of under or over trading. Obviously the more volume you do the less individual trades matter (except for the really big momentous ones) but as a matter of choice I now make a lot less trades than I used to, so each one tends to impact the bottom line pretty fast. On the other hand maybe you're watching yourself closer than you think or I'm monitoring myself too little cause I have no idea how many trades I've made in options or stocks and though I always calculate the gain/loss of particular trades I rarely, if ever sit down to figure out the cumulative effect of my covers per underlying stock. your 16% is pretty darn specific. I just break down my stuff to a few basic ranges: loss, break even, small gain, 20% or more, 40-50+, near 100 or over, and multiples of 100%, beyond that I just keep tabs on whether its been a good or bad month. As for crystals, be they clear, clouded or opaque, after the dot.com bust, 9/11, a few wars, galactic-sized frauds like Enron etc., the bank-housing collapse, and this last Nov-March's freefall, it's notable that anyone has any kind of balls left at all. |
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Posted September 26, 2009 (01:17PM)
Spence, I have used Excel for a number of years. I always have eight separate spreadsheets open which I use to keep track and analyze my various positions and possibilities. I try to leave nothing to guess work, and I'm too old to need to kid anybody including myself. You don't have to start with 8 sheets. Try one. After you have an accurate record for a period of time, it is easier to draw conclusions about, what works and what doesn't, and what needs further attention in the future.
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Posted November 05, 2009 (10:29AM)
Spencorama: I saw your recent forum post on covered calls and had a few thoughts in response. I just wrote an All-Stars blog post that may be interesting to you: http://community.tradeking.com/members/tk-all-star/blogs/44463-covered-calls-and-stampeding-bulls
Regards, Mark Wolfinger |
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Posted November 05, 2009 (10:46AM)
I don’t know how this thread got bumped up, but I see
it second on the screen after being dead for over a month. Anyway, for those who are interested,
in the interim my options positions have turned over by more than 100% and now
I sit with 2 CC’s and 6 puts. Cue
the strings, “What a difference 6 weeks can make.”
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Posted November 05, 2009 (10:53AM)
Computers like humans make mistakes. I have noticed that if a TK staff posts to a thread, the thread moves to the top but the actual post might take 45 - 60 minutes to propagate to the client-facing (this is us) side
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Posted November 06, 2009 (12:36PM)
the post are filter by date/time.
It looks like ALL STAR posted a msg on 5/5/09 GWS |
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Posted November 06, 2009 (09:00PM)
Obviously since Wolfy's comment 'miraculously' appeared after OF and mine were posted, I just we discovered a 'communist conspiracy'. Gee, do you think they get 45 minutes to sneak orders in after earnings announcements?
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Posted November 07, 2009 (01:26PM)
after hour trading? |
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Posted November 07, 2009 (05:38PM)
YP, let me be sure you realize that I was typing with my tongue stuck firmly in my cheek; however, I don't know if the 'in house delay' is do to compliance issues or to allow the writer some editorial discretion. TK, said awhile ago that they do not allow us to edit our writing once published, for two reasons. First, they are obligated to keep copies of everything published on the site, and second, people could change their writing to suit future circumstances (making them look smarter.) I find the first rational weak since it just seems to warrant computer space. And the second doesn't hold water, because I think that the bulk of the people who read this dross are repeat offenders, and pretty much have figured out who's worth reading and who is not. When I have time I write off line in Word, and reread before I copy and paste. Many times that alone saves me from unintelligibility, but some times I just read what I think I wrote, and don't catch the mistake until later.
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