Yes Shap....That turn whipsawed me and many other traders. I was wrong and paid a price!
Since then, I am up substantially as well primarily on Gold, Oil and Currency trades.
As far as "the poverty of using that formation for making investment decisions". With all due respect, Head and Shoulder patterns have traditionally been some of the most reliable technical trading patterns. Believe me I have used them for many years effectively.
That being said, they are not 100% fail proof, nothing is!
Another point. At the time of that short term head and shoulder, there was also a longer term inverted head and shoulder (bullish pattern) clearly visible on the weekly charts. The longer term pattern usually is the stronger and more reliable and as we now know, it was correct! I chose to look at the shorter term pattern and was wrong.
I admit that I looked at it as an indication of a tired market needing a break before continuing higher. I will conceed that without changes to HFT (high frequency trading) going forward these types of patterns may not be as effective as they once were.
My year end target was and still is around 1050 - 1100 SPX.
Forum > Head and Shoulders Pattern Developing On The SPX
Displaying entries 21 - 28 of 28 forum posts in total
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Posted September 10, 2009 (10:34AM)
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Posted September 10, 2009 (11:29AM)
Income, I'm fairly sure you're corredt in regard to HTF's effects on market movewment, in terms of manipultion in conjunction with massive buying power.
The texture of this market is nothing at all what it was even a year ago. It's much less inter-competition from large trading institutions and a much larger percentage of small retail traders. Given those varibales, it's much, much easier for Goldman Sachs to manipulate whole indexes by stimulating short squeezes and the complete inverse at the critical points in time. The big boys need a PDT rule as well, market manipulation is still market manipulation, even if you own half of Congress and your uncle works at the SEC. |
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Posted September 10, 2009 (11:55AM)
I have to side with Otter, today head and shoulders tomorrow Selsium Blue ( Always from an Otter.... Selsium Blue works just as good as Head and Shoulders.... And I'll be betting over the next few days that there are no flakes out there....) |
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Posted September 10, 2009 (01:56PM)
IT, my aim in questioning technical analysis is not to deride or debunk it. I truly don’t ‘see it’ even after some years of coaching. That doesn’t mean that I don’t recognize that some people seem to ‘understand’ it and trade successfully. My prejudice goes back to the days when Mom said “Just because all your friends are jumping off the bridge…” So I can’t put real money down on something that somebody tells me that it works, but I don’t see it. If you can enlighten me how to tell, in a timely manner, that some interesting formation is occurring, and preferable some rules for evaluation that is such a formation and this is not. I would appreciate that if possible. |
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Posted September 10, 2009 (09:59PM)
There must be something to it, because Paul Tudor Jones says that it made him half his money, and he has about 3 billion.
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Posted September 11, 2009 (12:07AM)
yeah Owl, my wife says I'm a 'tooter' and I don't have no 3 billion.
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Posted September 11, 2009 (01:16PM)
Just FYI everybody - there is an international conference on TA in Chicago, October 2009 (I know, I know Chicago in October), open to everybody - http://www.ifta2009.com/
"Join your peers from around the world for three days of in-depth knowledge exchange on the ART and SCIENCE of Technical Analysis. We are now putting the finishing touches on a phenomenal line-up of speakers including among others, Ned Davis, Andrew Lo, Paul Desmond, Linda Raschke, Tony Dwyer, Ian McAvity, Julius de Kempenaer, and many others. Delegates will be inundated with cutting edge information and research, new views and ideas on old techniques, modern interpretations of price behavior, and more. Markets have evolved dramatically over the past year and this event offers an unmatched and priceless opportunity to hear your colleagues' take on these important changes. With so many esteemed and learned associates in one location you'll walk away with new ideas, outlooks and greater knowledge on the current trends in the markets." |
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Posted September 11, 2009 (03:01PM)
Hopefully this chart will be somewhat legible. It is a chart of the infamous H & S pattern back in July. |
Displaying entries 21 - 28 of 28 forum posts in total
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