|
Posted June 26, 2009 (01:33AM)
trading story - back in the 90's I thought I invented money.....the market was screaming towards 10,000 (for the first time) . I had the opportunity to spend a little time with one of NationsBank's ( now BAC ) best and biggest traders . This guy managed billions of other people's money . So, after a couple beers I had to ask him a question . I had to "pick his brain" .
(At this time, I'm in my mid-30's , I'm "riding the bull baby" . I'm going to "retire in 10 dawg") I ask , so what are you getting into ? got any hot picks ? The guy looks me right in the eye and says....."IBM ,McDonalds, Exxon , Wal-mart it isn't rocket science, invest in big companies that are run well . there going to get you 10% a year , you'll beat the street, you beat CD's , any savings account and you'll probably beat your broker. picking stocks is the easy part , knowing when to sell is what separtates the boys from the men , or should I say it's what separates the boys from their money. " Well I , I didn't listen....I jumped on JDSU, World Com , etc.. ......rode them to the bottom. as the internet bubble burst. Got nervous , sold everything and as it all picked back up I had neither the capital or the will to play the game .Needless to say I learned a hard lesson. This boy" old boy" had been separated from his money . (The old boring broker has since retired to St. Barts .) Portfolio management 2009 - 1) Buy 3 or 4 well run big companies . Low P/E , Low debt , good margins ( relative to their industry) , with a track record of paying Div's . make those companies your anchors . ( I'm in BAC , MCD, MSFT and CVX , I'm going to buy some WMT in august ) 2)Buy more of these anchors on 6-10% dips , keep up with the news relative to your anchors . 3) hold . know your when your sun is setting . Some people are day traders , some are DECADE traders . As hard as it is to fathom, there are millions of people that don't give a hoot that the market went up , down, or sideways today . Whatever CNBC or Cramer says today......they'll say something different next week . remember , slow , steady see-saw markets don't make news . it ain't "sexy" 4) have a sell strategy - When mine gain 25% , I sell 25% . When they gain 100% , I sell half . Create your own stratagy , but surely have one , BEFORE you buy . 5) Good companies sometimes crash so know what you are investing in . If you can't explain to someone how a company makes money or you can't understand how they make a profit , DON'T give them your money to play with . 6) read , read , read , read .....I'm still teaching myself to read a balance sheet . You have to be honest enough to know what you don't know. I know thing about "shorting' or options . so I stay out of those conversations . I watch , I learn , I read . 7) relax.....it's only money....if you were doing this for a living you wouldn't be posting on a discount broker's blog space . 8) ( in tribute to the movie "The Graduate) ...... " I want to say one word to you. Just one word. .......PLASTICS ! Note ro #7 : If you are doing this for a living.....get to work ! the Asian markets are open and London and Frankfurt open in 3 hours . The Mylanta is in the 2nd drawer on the right . The Scotch is right next to it :) |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted June 26, 2009 (08:49AM)
DK, you are a survivor. Some with your experience have retreated to the autopilot of 1% CD's. Ven, this is what I mean by finding your style. It's what works for DK. And btw, this is how I earn my living, so I do take it seriously, but that doesn't mean I don't laugh at myself.
|
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted June 26, 2009 (10:35AM)
spshapiro - I have to be honest , I retreated to CD's and Mutual fund for several years before jumping back in . I don't know if I am a survivor but I have lived to play another day .
The one thing I have survived is this question in the summer of 2001 . ( spoken with a wife's steely gaze ) ....You lost how much ? I laugh now but needless to say I learned alot . My risk tolerance is directly tied to my comfort level while sleeping on the couch :) Good Luck trading today ! DK |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted June 26, 2009 (01:27PM)
I hope you guys don't mind my jumping in here...I'm not what you'd call a "seasoned investor", but I do consider myself serious.
I am holding my positions for now, and adding to my favorites as prices decline some. I think we will have some "summer doldrums", with the market not really doing much until fall. Not great for short-term traders perhaps. I've been buying stuff that pays dividends. I figure at least it will give me a return that way, even if prices remain stagnant or decline. I am also using this opportunity, the recent decline, to add to stuff like RIMM, which I think will go much higher in the future. And I still feel that inflation in commodity prices will be an issue down the line. I don't think the consumer will resume their spending frenzy anytime soon though. So the recovery, when it comes, may not be intense. However, slower but steadier growth may be better in the long run than "bubbles". But I am definitely in a "buying mode" right now. |
|
Posted July 02, 2009 (01:32PM)
So far so good guys. My small cap long positions are all outperforming the market even in a significant down day(majority around break even or positive) and my short positions are performing extremely well. |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted July 03, 2009 (02:05AM)
Ven, good to hear you are doing good, options are beating me down at the moment. But it’s all a learning experience, and I usually learn the hard way! |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted July 03, 2009 (03:01AM)
If I may make a suggestion, El D, you might want to try to get on the other side of the options trade with a portion of your money. Sell them. That way time decay is on your side. Here's what I suggest to try just once:
Pick a stock you wouldn't mind buying right now. Look at the put option that's just out of the money for the next month's expiration. Make sure you will get a 3-5% return on the premium. If it doesn't return this much, find another stock. Allot enough cash to cover the buy and do not touch it! Now sell a few of those puts and collect your premium up front. If the underlying jumps quickly (in a few days) such that the put drops half (or so) of what you sold it for, buy it back and collect 1-3 % in a few days. If not, then after a week put in a GTC order to buy it back for a nickle. On the last day of life, remove that order and take your chances. If it drops and you are assigned, well, you bought a stock you wouldn't mind having bought at a higher price + the premium you collected. If the option expires, you pocket the premium + the interest of the money market you selected. This requires level 4 options trading if you have it. I do recommend getting that level. A very high percentage of my put sales are bought back on the cheap. Another choice is selling calls on stocks you already have at a strike price you wouldn't mind selling the stock at. Your target premium should be 2-5%. If you think the underlying might tank, you might want to buy a put for protection (collar), I usually don't. Use the same discipline in reverse as I mentioned above for buying the calls back. If you bought a collar and the underlying does start to tank, you can buy the call, sell the underlying (as per your normal sell rules), and ride the put. ALWAYS buy that call back first! You can get really burned if you don't. Both of these strategies generally work pretty well for me. I've been burned pretty badly doing the simple buying of calls too. I've just sat there and watch a pretty penny evaporate. The above strategies give you a cushion, but they are not a guarantee. They just improve the odds. They also enforce both buy and sell rules that you set ahead of time for stocks. ~~Weird Uncle Jesse~~ |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted July 03, 2009 (03:36AM)
Thanks Uncle Jesse, think I will spend the long weekend studying what you, OF, and SP have said! Profit regardless of percentage is better than loss! |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
Posted July 03, 2009 (03:56AM)
My trades are visible, take a look. I've made mistakes, sure, but you can both learn from them and see the technique I described in action.
~~Weird Uncle Jesse~~ |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Posted July 03, 2009 (05:35AM)
I only open new positions on down days. I look for stocks that are down at least 10% from the 3 highest days close in the past 30 days, normally with a positive p/e ratio and reasonable earnings. Once I open a new position I tend to stay in it until I get at least a 9-10% profit.
Most importantly I budget my trades. I trade several accounts - 2 Roths and a SEP. If I have 50K in my account, I will normally break that into 5 trades of 10,000 per stock. I then break that in 10 parts of $1000 and that is my entry level, including commissions. If I enter XYZ at $5.00, then I am ready to buy also at $4.50, $4.00, $3.50, etc. (dollar cost averaging). This way I can never run out of cash regardless of how low the market goes, and it helps me to buy at least some stock at or near the bottom of a trading swing. As the stock rises in price from the bottom, I will begin to sell off the stock until it reaches my preselected target price. In the example above, if my $5 stock falls to $3.50, I would have bought 284 shares at $3.50 and would sell 252 shares at $4, effectively givng me 32 free shares which I plan to sell at $5.00 to $5.50 per share. I sometimes find a stock that will yo-yo between a price range and can pick up a lot of free shares like this at a very good price. Sometimes I will sell the balance of my shares at the same price I entered the stock at and still get anywhere from 10-30% return, depending on how long I am in the trade. I do not use options except for the occasional covered call. I buy TWM (Proshares Ultrashort Russell 2000) as a hedge against a market decline. My current holdings are ACAS, AIB, AOD, ARGN, BMR, BPO, BFD, CEP, CIT, CSQ, EAD, FHI, OCNF, OLP, RAS, TWM |
|
You must Log In to post to this forum.
|